Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here at my house I am now at 1” of new snow fall. Still getting light snow falling with a temperature of 15°. We are leaving for Florida tomorrow and as luck would have it there is WSW’s and WWA and of course wind chill advisories all across the south. It now looks like I will be taking the (western) route down there as the snow looks to move east Tuesday and Wednesday. On my (western) route there are no mountains But there will be snow on the ground well into AlabamaWe are now half way thru January and at the half way point. The mean this January so far is 18.6° (-6.1) the average H/L is 26.9/10.3° there had been 6.7” of snow so far and for this winter season we are now at 40.4”Have a safe and fun trip bud! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 .LONG TERM...(Tuesday daytime through Sunday)Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018General overview of this 6-day period:Due to more pressing issues involving the dangerous wind chills inthe short-term, will be keeping this section shorter-than-usual,but will highlight the big stories in roughly chronological order.Before getting into that though, a quick word of caution regardingnext weekend`s forecast: While CURRENT models show a potentially-concerning snow storm, we want to emphasize that this is stillSEVERAL days away and subject to a considerable amount ofuncertainty. We urge anyone reading this to refrain from gettingtoo "hyped up" over this system, as less than a week ago we justhad a storm system that ended up looking much stronger in themodels several days out than it ended up being (at least in termsof snow accumulation).2) Weekend Winter storm? (see cautionary note above!):While Saturday daytime currently looks mainly dry, the Saturdaynight-Sunday time frame has grown a bit more concerning over thepast 24 hours, as at least for now both the ECMWF/GFS are insurprisingly good agreement showing a strong upper troughintensifying as it lifts east-northeast across the Central Plainstoward the Upper Midwest. While we are DAYS away from havingconsiderable confidence in how this pans out, current models doshow a potentially potent combo of accumulating snow and strongwinds. In coordination with neighboring WFOs, have capped snowchances (PoPs) at 50 percent for now, but this system clearlybears close watching as it slowly nears.AFD from Hastings. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Have a safe and fun trip bud!thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 AFD from Hastings.NWS Hastings pretty much has it all covered here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 It’s 6 days out! You’re joking, right?About which part? And no, if you follow history the past few years, there hasn't been a synoptic style storm that has setup well for Eastern Iowa in quite some time. The Euro is usually pretty good with the track by 120 hours, so if it doesn't change between now and say Wednesday then I'm not optimistic. That and NWS already calling it a rain maker for our area with highs in the 30s and 40s doesn't look promising. Certainly it could change, which is why I stated I'm waiting a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 thanks Dittos, and find some sunshine and warmth while you're down there.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice amount of snow on the ground now although the latest 4.5 or so inches will melt in a hurry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS has slowed down with the weekend system. Still looks to be about the same track thru 141 hours from the 6z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Amazing run to run consistency this far out and reminds of the days of tracking solid SW flow storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is an Omaha to Madison special. i'm right on the cutoff line. I'd feel better if the Euro took another jog south on the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is one juiced up storm though...lots of moisture and doesn’t move that fast with blocking in place. 18+ hr snowfall for those NW of the SLP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Central Nebraska usually does really well with this type of storm coming from the Southwest out of Colorado and Western Kansas. Should be a fun week tracking the highs and lows of this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice storm. Hope it keeps its act together throughout the week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 GGEM looks goofy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice storm. Hope it keeps its act together throughout the week Hopefully this one doesn’t follow the pattern so far this winter. How many of these storms have shown up 5-6 days out only to fizzle out within 36 hours? I’ve lost count. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hopefully this one doesn’t follow the pattern so far this winter. How many of these storms have shown up 5-6 days out only to fizzle out within 36 hours? I’ve lost count.agree sick of storms taking a crap.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like back to back storms next week. Looks like most of us will at least catch 1 of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 the difference this storm seems to have so far is it strengthens slightly as it heads east, whereas previous storms were weakening. This one goes from about 1008mb in CO to 998mb in central IL http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011512/174/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Still not sure why everyone is fretting over the euro. We need to remember that it was absolute garbage with both of the last SW flow systems. It may be just as bad this time around. Still a lot of time left to go on this one yet. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Still not sure why everyone is fretting over the euro. We need to remember that it was absolute garbage with both of the last SW flow systems. It may be just as bad this time around. Still a lot of time left to go on this one yet.Fretting?? We are 6 days out of course it could be wrong. Personally I wouldnt discount the EURO because it performed poorly last time. If that is the way we roll there are not many storms at which we should even look at the GFS outside of 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 i think every model performed poorly last time. The GFS scores wins over the Euro from time to time, but more times than not the Euro is closer to the right idea in the 5ish day range vs. other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Fretting?? We are 6 days out of course it could be wrong. Personally I wouldnt discount the EURO because it performed poorly last time. If that is the way we roll there are not many storms at which we should even look at the GFS outside of 3 days.I’m not discounting the euro, but I’m also less willing to put a lot of stock in it because of that. That wouldn’t change regardless of which model had snow here, if any. Completely discounting a model of any skill is generally a poor move. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I’m not discounting the euro, but I’m also less willing to put a lot of stock in it because of that. That wouldn’t change regardless of which model had snow here, if any. Completely discounting a model of any skill is generally a poor move.Do you put more stock in the GFS than the EURO? Again not that it matters at 150 hours. I mean if that track ends up 100 miles north of the GFS or 100 miles south is that really a bad performance at 150 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Do you put more stock in the GFS than the EURO?Right now, yes. But by saying that I also should say it’s almost certainly well overdone with the snow amounts. 50/30 in favor of the GFS. Normally I side with th euro, but with significant blunders in the last week or so, I’m hesitant to do so. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hopefully this one doesn’t follow the pattern so far this winter. How many of these storms have shown up 5-6 days out only to fizzle out within 36 hours? I’ve lost count. agree sick of storms taking a crap.... I need S and E trends ofc, but that = weak sauce so far this winter. Lose-lose on the table unless this breaks the mold Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Right now, yes. But by saying that I also should say it’s almost certainly well overdone with the snow amounts. 50/30 in favor of the GFS. Normally I side with th euro, but with significant blunders in the last week or so, I’m hesitant to do so.Ya 30 inches is probably overdoing it. Fair enough. Either model could be more right and I would argue at 150 hours they are not really that far apart. And I hate the EURO solution. Enough rain to melt all of the snow that we have, though we will lose alot at the end of the week anyways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 UK is just getting into range... the 12z run would cut the low up through Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 As usual something for everyone on the ensembles. Including plenty of turds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z GEFS snow mean hits all of NE/IA into WI...N IL riding the edge.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ukie as a 1004 Low in Southwest Kansas at 120 hours and the Low at 998 in pretty much the same location at 144 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z GEFS snow mean hits all of NE/IA into WI...N IL riding the edge....And the spread is only from Northern Lousiana to Canada!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 UKMET only model to give me hope...all others are far to the south; even the German. What does it see that the others don't? I once read that it had the best verification scores of any model in the 5 - 7 day range; even the ECMWF... But Canadian, GFS, and German, all far to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Diving into the long range pattern on this MLK holiday, I'd like to start off by talking about the glaring warm bias on the EPS as well as the CFSv2. Interestingly, the GEFS have not been as warm in the extended and you have to give it some credit as it first "saw" the cooling trend during the long awaited 17th-21st pullback. The EPS finally "saw" the cooler look as we got closer to the period. With that being said, I continue to see the warm bias of the Euro in the extended and it is my opinion the GEFS have the right idea. Why you may ask??? Well, everyone knows how much I use the BSR/LRC and EAR along with other long range forecasting techniques that have done quite well this season in general predicting storm patterns/troughs/ridges/etc. Let's use the LRC, as an example, and go back to the Dec 4th-5th Upper MW Blitz, which in all likely hood will cycle through this weekend. Following that, 4 days later Dec 8th-9th, there was a frontal boundary draped across the southern Plains and a clipper that tracked across the north. During that period, we had a +PNA/+NAO which did not favor a storm system and as this energy cycles through, I think we will see another southern wave ride up from the south. If we were to use the EAR, there are several more storm chances showing up and lining up with the LRC, coincidentally...or not...check out the 12z GEFS/EPS showing a storm tracking across Japan on the 17th...this translates to a system in our part of the world between the 24th-26th. Following that, the active pattern continues and I'm looking out for yet another SW flow system during the 28th-30th time frame...I think thats about it for now. I don't think it truly does get real warm around these parts, except if you end up to the south of a particular storm. The temp pattern will be volatile during this period but residual cold that will be around to tap should provide ample amount of cold air to produce winter storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Madison jackin at 30" haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Snow from the ICON Model on Tropical Tidbits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 the difference this storm seems to have so far is it strengthens slightly as it heads east, whereas previous storms were weakening. This one goes from about 1008mb in CO to 998mb in central IL Now this is the kind of system I’m talking about lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I would pay a lot of money just to lock in that GFS run. I feel like this screams Norfolk/Sioux City/Rochester special, but still many more stroke-inducing models runs to go lol. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Now this is the kind of system I’m talking about lol Yeah, so was I last week with the Euro runs.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Could this be my first storm over 3 inches in years? I doubt it! Who’s watching every model run from now until pound town? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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