BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Pretty incredible how long it has been since we have seen a significant period of cold onshore flow. Seemed to happen all the time between 2008-12, then someone turned the spigot off. April 2018! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Pretty amazing to see all of the analogs from the 1950s on recent GFS runs. I'm not going to be doing much commenting on here until things really come together though. I'm just burned out on the forum for a while. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 That Arctic front sure pushed into the BC interior in a hurry. Some very cold air is close. Too bad it didn't make its way to the coast, would have made for a decent battle-zone event. As it stands it looks like the Eastern Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley are going to get slammed with snow again as that looks to be the battle zone this go around. The current YWL-YXX gradient is -13mb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 That Arctic front sure pushed into the BC interior in a hurry. Some very cold air is close. Too bad it didn't make its way to the coast, would have made for a decent battle-zone event. As it stands it looks like the Eastern Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley are going to get slammed with snow again as that looks to be the battle zone this go around. The current YWL-YXX gradient is -13mb. Yeah...SO close. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds. About where it stops. They are expecting rain tomorrow in Chilliwack. And its really not that cold when you look at the 850mb map for tomorrow (equally cold air over parts of BC and Texas) It is the middle of January. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Phil gets to enjoy 65 on Friday before it crashes again! Might have low 60s here on Sunday as well... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 About where it stops. They are expecting rain tomorrow in Chilliwack. And its really not that cold when you look at the 850mb map for tomorrow (equally cold air over parts of BC and Texas) It is the middle of January. I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow. Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow. Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas. True. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 True.Currently -12F with a windchill of -22F near our cabin. That’s pretty chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 My list is easier to make by listing what states I’d live in. For me it probably would be OR, CA, WA, MT, CO, AK, maybe WY and northern AZ and ID.I’m guessing you like mountains? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Phil gets to enjoy 65 on Friday before it crashes again! Might have low 60s here on Sunday as well... Omg, and a low of 61*F. Gonna feel great. We’ll probably sleep with our bedroom window open. Low temps plunge back to around 15*F a few days later, though, so it’s mostly a troll job. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Special weather statements just posted for much of Vancouver Island. Up to 4” of snow for higher elevations and inland areas. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow. Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas. Chilliwack will probably see a little snow for sure. Definitely a big snowfall anywhere to the east of there. Shaping up to be a decent winter for the Eastern Fraser River Valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds.As of 12 AM YWL-BLI now -13.1mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Omg, and a low of 61*F. Gonna feel great. We’ll probably sleep with our bedroom window open. Low temps plunge back to around 15*F a few days later, though, so it’s mostly a troll job. Could be and maybe should be your last real chill before the Pacific eats the rest of your winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 00z ECMWF Day 10 - Ridge did slide east nicely to 160 W the sweet spot. If it sets up there and amplifies that could be REAL good after the trough in the US kicks out. Too far out to do anything but speculate. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011100/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Chilliwack will probably see a little snow for sure. Definitely a big snowfall anywhere to the east of there. Shaping up to be a decent winter for the Eastern Fraser River Valley.Their watch was just upgraded to a warning. 8-12” of snow tomorrow. Definitely been a great stretch out that way. Agassiz had over 2 feet of snow at the end of December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 IR/Water Vapor update & 3hr Pressure ChangeToday's low is now around 996mb located near 45 N, 138.4 W. The past hour or so it's showing better organization and 3hr Pressure Change shows it's undergoing decent cyclogenesis/deepening now. Hmmm.... IR 4km Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25WV Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12WV 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+253hr Pressure Change chart> http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 00z EPS mirroring the OP nearly identically. Positive anomaly/block is in great placement perhaps a bit further east would be better yet, kick that trough out over the US and then add amplification we'd be set. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018011100/240/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Could be and maybe should be your last real chill before the Pacific eats the rest of your winter.Haha, whatever gets you through the night. Fortunately for me, it snows here in Pacific airmasses all the time. I don’t live in a maritime climate. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Driving and cranking some old alice n chains and i am reminded of a cool experience my late wife had. The year was 1992 and she was working at the k2 ski plant on vasion island. She comes home one day and says hey i met some guy from a band today. I say oh ya? She says ya some scruffy guy sat next to me and started a conversion with me just small talk chit chat. She says ya he and the band are signing some snow boards today at work. At this point i am thinking some no name grunge band or something. Keep in mind my wife listened to garth brooks in 1992 and only rock when we were together and i was trying to blow here ears out. So i ask who was this person and band?? She looks at me and says his name was layne staley and the band is called alice and chains or something. My mouth dropped. She sat and talked to him for 10 minutes. I never forget what she said. He looked like a bum but was very soft spoken and polite. I love music amd it was a special moment for sure. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Michael Ventrice 15 hours ago "Interesting signature from the latest ECMWF Week 4 Clusters; Top 3 clusters show a similar pattern, though vary on the latitude of the ridge forecast to build over the eastern U.S. (from +NAO to -NAO)." I'll take Cluster 4 please. 10% chance? Oki doki. Cluster 6 would be strong backdoor blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Michael Ventrice 15 hours ago Interesting signature from the latest ECMWF Week 4 Clusters; Top 3 clusters show a similar pattern, though vary on the latitude of the ridge forecast to build over the eastern U.S. (from +NAO to -NAO) I'll take Cluster 4 please. 10% chance? Oki doki. Cluster 6 would be strong backdoor blast.Reality will probably be cluster 1, 2, or 5, except maybe moved up about one week. Then a bifurcation/Plains trough develops to open February when the MJO propagates back into the west-Pacific. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 FWIW, the difference between those EPS week 4 clusters is likely explained by the speed at which the MJO propagates into the west-Pacific. Clusters 6, 7, 8, are probably the members with a shallower/faster wave, hence they transition the pattern faster than clusters 1, 2, 4, and 5, which might have the slower/deeper wave. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Haha, whatever gets you through the night. Fortunately for me, it snows here in Pacific airmasses all the time. I don’t live in a maritime climate. Interesting...I guess Pacific airmasses do tend to be pretty good in Potomac Basin Snowbelt. Impressive monthly totals like 0.0" in DC in Pacific Jet dominated stretches like December 2001, January 2006, December 2006, February 2012, December 2015, and February 2017 certainly attest to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Reality will probably be cluster 1, 2, or 5, except maybe moved up about one week. Then a bifurcation/Plains trough develops to open February when the MJO propagates back into the west-Pacific.That's ALWAYS our reality, but I do agree. We'll see. F8720114-2759-4EBE-90CC-3C2AF679D014.pngNo bueno. Block reorganizes a bit too far west. Hopefully that changes in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Interesting...I guess Pacific airmasses do tend to be pretty good in Potomac Basin Snowbelt. Impressive monthly totals like 0.0" in DC in Pacific Jet dominated stretches like December 2001, January 2006, December 2006, February 2012, December 2015, and February 2017 certainly attest to that.Lol, swing and a miss. The periods you mention were failures because of an overpowering northern jet that induced early phasing upstream from here. A strong Pacific jet is actually a good thing here during most winters. The winters of 1982/83, 1999/00, 2004/05, 2005/06, and 2015/16, to name a few, were all memorable here thanks to a strong Pacific jet that left residual energy in the south-central US after rectracting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Winters with weak Pacific jets tend to be mostly snowless and moisture starved here. This one is a perfect example of that. Believe it or not, I actually had more snowfall (locally) by this time last year than I do now. Shocker, right? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Lol, swing and a miss. The periods you mention were failures because of an overpowering northern jet that induced early phasing upstream from here. A strong Pacific jet is actually a good thing here during most winters. The winters of 1982/83, 1999/00, 2004/05, 2005/06, and 2015/16 were all memorable here thanks to a strong Pacific jet that left residual energy in the south-central US after rectracting. I think it's just kinda cute how much you occasionally strive to play up your borderline, very mild winter climate. DC is far enough south that it usually requires pretty needle-threading blocking to score any significant winter weather. El Nino years favor your region for that blocking so whatever cold air is present usually gets dumped around you. I leave you with this https://www.houzz.com/discussions/2089667/palms-popping-up-around-washington-dc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I think it's just kinda cute how much you occasionally strive to play up your borderline, very mild winter climate. DC is far enough south that it usually requires pretty needle-threading blocking to score any significant winter weather. El Nino years favor your region for that blocking so whatever cold air is present usually gets dumped around you. I leave you with this https://www.houzz.com/discussions/2089667/palms-popping-up-around-washington-dcYeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though. What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Yeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though. What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes. Everyone is so sick of reading this post. This is a thread for the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Rain. A lot of it. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Yeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though. What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes.Sounds like a more exciting eastern forum might be a good place for you then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Radar is really lit up this morning. At 42 right now. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I thought the 06z was encouraging, haven’t seen the ensembles yet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomas Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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