March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

A few of the 12Z runs are showing the Low pressure area retrograding back through lower Michigan on Thursday and adding some strength to it. A surprise storm perhaps???!!!

[SE Wisconsin]

We got a quick burst of snow here in SE WI that amounted to about 2-3 inches.  But the sun is out now and it is starting to disappear.  March snow will never last very long around here.  None of the area cross-country ski trails will be groomed and reopen because of this snow.  Might have to make a trip up to the UP before the end of March. 

[Stormgeek]

Okay, that is enough snow for me this season. Spring fever/t-storm fever starting to kick in! Hoping for a more eventful year than last. Only 1 notable storm hit here last year and it was a nasty hail storm that hit in the morning JUST to my south (luckily). Everything else died on the doorstep. It is pretty crazy how timing is off just enough to where storms lose heating and intensity right as they approach this area.

[Niko]

Sunshine peeking through those clouds, but quite chilly w current temp @ 35F.

[Tom]

This doesn't bode well for the southern Plains!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

This doesn't bode well for the southern Plains!

 

My location in Central Nebraska is not that far north of the elevated colors.  The many storm misses last fall and this winter, rain and snow, looks like it will come back to haunt our region.  Gosh I hope I'm wrong.

[Tom]

My location in Central Nebraska is not that far north of the elevated colors. The many storm misses last fall and this winter, rain and snow, looks like it will come back to haunt our region. Gosh I hope I'm wrong.

Sure hope the later half of March delivers when the cold tries to push back bc when April arrives, so will the early season warmth...maybe even heat down by the TX Panhandle?

[Tom]

You know its getting bad when GOES satellite is picking up on flying Dust in KS...no bueno...I smell an inferno coming this summer...

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

My air conditioning and water bills will be huge.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The 12z EURO at the end has a nice sized trough coming in

 

[indianajohn]

You know its getting bad when GOES satellite is picking up on flying Dust in KS...no bueno...I smell an inferno coming this summer...

And Nebraskans on this forum always say nothing ever shows up on Radar in their parts.....

[Minny_Weather]

And Nebraskans on this forum always say nothing ever shows up on Radar in their parts.....

They're wrong. We get plenty of virga returns and bird migrations on radar.

[Niko]

and here are the advisories as I expected.

 

NOAA:

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI400 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...MIZ061>063-068>070-075-070915-/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.180307T0000Z-180307T1800Z/Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Including the cities of Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor400 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow, with peak rates up to half an inch per hour. Total  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated 5  inch totals possible.* WHERE...Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland,  Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared  for reduced visibilities at times.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow willcause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow coveredroads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

[Niko]

Clouds have already lowered and thicken. Temps are falling and it smells like snow out there. Very likely to break that 60"+ mark in the Detroit Metro area this Winter.

[Niko]

Round 2:  More accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon into Thursday night for SEMI.....

 

NOAA:

 

Forecast gets even trickier Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
night as the secondary upper low stalls and wobbles around southern
MI with the remnants of the surface low elongating into a trough
that will then pivot over Mid MI Wednesday night and sweep back
south through the area on Thursday. We could be looking at another
round of accumulating snowfall on the order of 2-5 inches from
Thursday 00Z-18Z. Low confidence forecast at this point as it all
depends on where the wobbling upper low sets up, where the surface
trough stalls and pivots, and potential strength of a trowal.

 

[bud2380]

Gfs and Canadian both showing some snow for Saturday night for parts of the area. Something to keep an eye on. Looks pretty weak right now but could be a couple inches

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is video of the fire around the McCook NE area yesterday afternoon that caused damages and evacuations.  It is a town of over 7000 in Southwest Nebraska.  The dry conditions are already a major concern and it is only March.  My area is about 80 miles northeast of this location.

 

http://www.knopnews2.com/content/news/City-of-Mccook-evacuating-residents--476032833.html

[Tom]

It's a bit chilly (26F) this morning and with a slight dusting of snow overnight, mother nature just wants to remind us that winter is still holding on.  Are you ready for a brief taste of Spring???  I sure am and I'm looking forward to possible 60's later next week/weekend.  Like I said before, it won't last long but at least we'll be able to enjoy some warmer weather. 

 

Overnight 00z GEFS continue to illustrate the "brief" warm up during the 15th-18th ish period (more so across the Plains), then its back to a BN pattern with a couple back-to-back storms systems late next weekend and then around the Spring Solstice.  The Spring Solstice storm may have a wintry side to it, but I'm not quite sure where it sets up just yet.  A hard cutter is likely late next weekend.  March is certainly behaving like a wild one that I was expecting it to be.  Nonetheless, at least it isn't boring  (unless your in NE of course).

[Tom]

Here is video of the fire around the McCook NE area yesterday afternoon that caused damages and evacuations.  It is a town of over 7000 in Southwest Nebraska.  The dry conditions are already a major concern and it is only March.  My area is about 80 miles northeast of this location.

 

http://www.knopnews2.com/content/news/City-of-Mccook-evacuating-residents--476032833.html

That's just terrible bud, not a good sign at all...and there isn't much relief over the next 10 days.  The one storm that might produce some precip in the forseeable future may be the Spring Solstice system I'm expecting to develop.  In any case, this area will likely be an inferno during the warm season and I can hear the media hype already.

[CentralNebWeather]

That's just terrible bud, not a good sign at all...and there isn't much relief over the next 10 days.  The one storm that might produce some precip in the forseeable future may be the Spring Solstice system I'm expecting to develop.  In any case, this area will likely be an inferno during the warm season and I can hear the media hype already.

McCook is in an area of Southwest Nebraska that is very hilly, so when a fire begins it goes up and down these hills and canyons.  Fortunately where I live we are almost completely flat with irrigation covering the entire area with some of the best farmland and soil in the world.  I talked with my father-in-law and he said grain prices have been going up recently with predictions of a hot and dry summer in parts of the wheat and corn belt.  That will eventually translate to higher food prices.  Lose - lose situation for many.  

[Tom]

McCook is in an area of Southwest Nebraska that is very hilly, so when a fire begins it goes up and down these hills and canyons.  Fortunately where I live we are almost completely flat with irrigation covering the entire area with some of the best farmland and soil in the world.  I talked with my father-in-law and he said grain prices have been going up recently with predictions of a hot and dry summer in parts of the wheat and corn belt.  That will eventually translate to higher food prices.  Lose - lose situation for many.  

Hedge your bets and buy some calls on grains!  Indeed, its def an issue in terms of pricing, but hopefully the rest of the eastern Ag belt can make up for some of the anticipated crop losses this season.

[Minny_Weather]

Hedge your bets and buy some calls on grains!  Indeed, its def an issue in terms of pricing, but hopefully the rest of the eastern Ag belt can make up for some of the anticipated crop losses this season.

I'm hoping Lincoln is too far East to be lumped in with the "dry and hot" crowd. FWIW, the dry line is normally to our West, the farthest East it goes is usually Grand Island-ish, so I still have hope on having a non-droughty Summer.

[Minny_Weather]

Gonna say adios to what I believe will be our last snowcover of the season today. Good riddance, Winter of 2017-2018. 26.6*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm hoping Lincoln is too far East to be lumped in with the "dry and hot" crowd. FWIW, the dry line is normally to our West, the farthest East it goes is usually Grand Island-ish, so I still have hope on having a non-droughty Summer.

What we hope for here is the dry line can be in Eastern Colorado, Western KS/NE and storms can fire as it moves east in the overnight hours.  Even in some of our driest years, we can get drenching thunderstorms.  Hard to predict and not everyone benefits.  Summer of 1988 for example, most of the Plains and Midwest suffered, but here we benefited from timely nighttime rains that others didn't receive so it can go both ways I assume.  Maybe things will flip positively, but not holding my breath.

[westMJim]

Back to looking kind of like winter here. just under 2" of new snow over night. It is the kind that stick to the side of the trees and unlike yesterdays morning snow cover today's is also on the road and driveway. Temperature here is now 26°

[Minny_Weather]

What we hope for here is the dry line can be in Eastern Colorado, Western KS/NE and storms can fire as it moves east in the overnight hours.  Even in some of our driest years, we can get drenching thunderstorms.  Hard to predict and not everyone benefits.  Summer of 1988 for example, most of the Plains and Midwest suffered, but here we benefited from timely nighttime rains that others didn't receive so it can go both ways I assume.  Maybe things will flip positively, but not holding my breath.

Yeah, exactly. Predictions of a dry, hot Summer don't mean that convection isn't still possible. It's still possible to have a good severe season with an overall dry Spring/Summer. Last Summer was TOO wet, imo. The floods shut down the road I take to get to Milford.

[Niko]

NOAA:

Accumulating snow is expected on Thursday, with accumulations of 2 to4 inches.

Winter Wonderland outside. Picked up couple of inches last night. Temp @ 31F.

 

 

It stays quite cold and gets colder still by next week. Cant wait for Spring!

[Niko]

EC is getting crushed. NYC is forecasted at 12"+. Ironically, Boston doesn't do as well. Philly does very good as well. NYC is the big winner along the i-95 corridor as for now. I cant wait to see that totals, especially, Winter snowfall totals for the season.

[FV-Mike]

EC is getting crushed. NYC is forecasted at 12"+. Ironically, Boston doesn't do as well. Philly does very good as well. NYC is the big winner along the i-95 corridor as for now. I cant wait to see that totals, especially, Winter snowfall totals for the season.

central park currently reporting rain. I think Philly has the best chance to score the high totals.

[Niko]

central park currently reporting rain. I think Philly has the best chance to score the high totals.

It should go over to all snow soon and become heavy at times. Both locales do very well. This is a great storm for them. Second in a week. Quite impressive. Quinn will do the damage, that's for sure.

[NEJeremy]

looks like the next big system for around the 10th has turned into a nothing burger, then it's quiet around here until the 16th or 17th.

[CentralNebWeather]

looks like the next big system for around the 10th has turned into a nothing burger, then it's quiet around here until the 16th or 17th.

Not good.

[Hawkeye]

Models have suddenly gone very mild/warm, at least briefly, in the extended period.  Last night's Euro went 60s, and now the GFS has this.

 

[Tom]

Models have suddenly gone very mild/warm, at least briefly, in the extended period.  Last night's Euro went 60s, and now the GFS has this.

 

gfs_t2max_iowa_228.png

That's gonna be nice, but what won't be so nice is what is lurking right after that into the following week.  Today's 12z GEFS just threw a wrench into the warmth next weekend and usher back the cold quicker. #RelentlessMarch

[bud2380]

if we hit 70 on the Friday of March Madness, man that would be sweet.  

[bud2380]

Euro continues to show snow move into central Iowa Saturday night and then completely stop and fall apart without hitting eastern Iowa.  It's showing a few inches for Des Moines on the 12z run.  

[Niko]

Models have suddenly gone very mild/warm, at least briefly, in the extended period.  Last night's Euro went 60s, and now the GFS has this.

 

gfs_t2max_iowa_228.png

Bring it here please in SEMI. From I am seeing, it remains cold IMBY until all of next week w highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. UGH!

[jaster220]

Surprising amounts on GRR's map for this event - Thumb looks crazy - better there than mby 

 

 

 

[snowstorm83]

18-24" just in the past several hours in parts of NJ, 3-5" per hour rates. Literally takes nothing to get a giant snowstorm there. Winters aren't even really cold. 

[gosaints]

Boston area scores again. Scary with trees down