BLI snowman Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Temps still dropping with steady precip throughout the area now. Down to 38 here, I see a lot of stations in the 36-37 range down in the valley now. Should be an interesting few hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Even outside that stretch, the vast majority of winters between the early/mid 1950s and early/mid 1970s featured that same pattern. It was so consistent. It started breaking down quickly in the early 1970s, first into an anti-phased regime (Pacific/Atlantic in opposing states, no dual blocks) from 1971-76, which produced the Indo/west-Pacific heat uptake that culminated in the Great Pacific climate shift in 1976/77.Watch climate change in action. Flip from cool globe/-NAM to warm globe/+NAM happens in just 20 years. 1976-80: 1981-85: 1986-1990: 1991-95 Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Our last truly huge winter here in the PNW was 1968-69. Since then we haven't even gotten close. We are starting to turn things around and since 2008-09 I would say our winters are getting snowier again. Blocking in the sweet spot is starting to get more and more common now. I believe we are going to get another 1949-50/1968-69 type winter in the next decade. No more 1-3 inch snowstorms. The huge snowstorms are coming and going to be more frequent IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Lolz.And I get nothing...must be payback for the 19” of total snow I got last month! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 18z was pretty crazy. Just very light snow here now... Maybe even rain mixed in... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 This almost sounds like an insult.Do not discount the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its affect on the weather patterns world wide. Joe Bastardi talks about it at times. When studied closely it can tell us a lot about El Niño's and La Ninas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Intrigued by the 3k nam showing 4-8 inches over king county. Isolated 9 inch totals. Wow really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Definitely some rain mixed in here at 1600'. Partially due to light precip, partially due to a bit warmer air aloft this evening. Cooler air aloft will be moving back in over the next few hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Pretty crazy. SEA only managed a -6 in spite of the late morning 34. Just noticed that SEA was -6 on the high and the low and yet it was officially listed as a -5 departure. Not that it matters for the monthly average... just not sure how that math works. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Yeah the NAM has done good but it's been all over the map for tonight. 00z/06z showed practically nothing over an inch, 12z showed fairly widespread 3-5, 18z nothing but a trace, and now 4-9 inches. Not a good sign to pin your hopes on. The morning EURO (maybe 1-2 inches on east side) run was probably most realistic. Will see what it shows tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Down to 38 and the rain is looking chunky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Lolz. The NAM has an extremely interesting solution. Perfect tracking surface low. I want to see the GFS show something similar. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Sexton Mtn. Summit in Southern Oregon has had 3.09" of precip since midnight, all as snow. Their visibility has been under 1/4 mile since 2:45am. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Pretty heavy precip moving into SW Oregon now. The mountains are going to be getting blasted the next few hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Our last truly huge winter here in the PNW was 1968-69. Since then we haven't even gotten close. We are starting to turn things around and since 2008-09 I would say our winters are getting snowier again. Blocking in the sweet spot is starting to get more and more common now. I believe we are going to get another 1949-50/1968-69 type winter in the next decade. No more 1-3 inch snowstorms. The huge snowstorms are coming and going to be more frequent IMHO.I agree the sine wave has likely peaked (as far as the multidecadal NAM vascillation cycle is concerned). If there’s any structural climate analog era to this one, it’s probably the mid/late 1940s (IMO). Of course, when it comes to parameteizing the climate system, you’re really talking about a series of overlapping sine waves, all superimposed on additional series of overlapping sine waves (of perpetually lowering frequency). So the appearance is of something bizarre and excessively non-linear until you zoom out to orbital timescales. So, I do believe there are some notable differences when comparing today’s system state with that of the early/mid 1940s. And while the 2020s will possibly resemble the 1950s in a number of ways, there will clearly be differences there, as well. The big difference may in fact be the increasing amplitude of the bipolar seesaw/ITCZ seasonality that I mentioned earlier, which loses homogeneity to the 1950s both absolutely and seasonally, since said seasonality progresses too slowly backwards over each solar year relative to the annular modes and Pacific warm pool. So, arguably we’re going to repeat the 1950s, as far as the WHEM meridional modes are concerned, but we’ll have more amplified annular modes and an uncertain warm pool state, with an increasingly muted Arctic temperature seasonality, in contrast with an increasingly amplified Antarctic temperature seasonality. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 The GFS and WRF are considerably snowier for King County early tomorrow morning. The NWS is much more on board also. This looks pretty promising. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Sexton Mtn. Summit in Southern Oregon has had 3.09" of precip since midnight, all as snow. Their visibility has been under 1/4 mile since 2:45am. Portland getting blasted again. <_> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 41 has got to be one of their coldest highs this late on record. Although granted they have a longer period of record that encompasses some pretty crazy late season events. Yeah, only 1936 had sub-41's later in the season (three of them). So today was actually the late-season record for EUG (1938-). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 The GFS and WRF are considerably snowier for King County early tomorrow morning. The NWS is much more on board also. This looks pretty promising.WRF looks ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Not much action here. 39 with rain. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 And I get nothing...must be payback for the 19” of total snow I got last month!Nothing here either. We did have a few good dustings back in February though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Apparently there was a thunderstorm with accumulating hail here while I was at work. Still some hail left on the sides of the road when I drove home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Yeah the NAM has done good but it's been all over the map for tonight. 00z/06z showed practically nothing over an inch, 12z showed fairly widespread 3-5, 18z nothing but a trace, and now 4-9 inches. Not a good sign to pin your hopes on.Of course these assume 10:1 ratios which it won’t be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Yeah, only 1936 had sub-41's later in the season (three of them). So today was actually the late-season record for EUG (1938-). Holy sheeit. This is getting super impressive. Especially when you consider the growing likelihood of another abnormal cold snap in the 8 to 10 day period. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 WRF looks ok Kind of an understatement I would say. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I agree the sine wave has likely peaked (as far as the multidecadal NAM vascillation cycle is concerned). If there’s any structural climate analog era to this one, it’s probably the mid/late 1940s (IMO). Of course, when it comes to parameteizing the climate system, you’re really talking about a series of overlapping sine waves, all superimposed on additional series of overlapping sine waves (of perpetually lowering frequency). So the appearance is of something bizarre and excessively non-linear until you zoom out to orbital timescales. So, I do believe there are some notable differences when comparing today’s system state with that of the early/mid 1940s. And while the 2020s will possibly resemble the 1950s in a number of ways, there will clearly be differences there, as well. The big difference may in fact be the increasing amplitude of the bipolar seesaw/ITCZ seasonality that I mentioned earlier, which loses homogeneity to the 1950s both absolutely and seasonally, since said seasonality progresses too slowly backwards over each solar year relative to the annular modes and Pacific warm pool. So, arguably we’re going to repeat the 1950s, as far as the WHEM meridional modes are concerned, but we’ll have more amplified annular modes and an uncertain warm pool state, with an increasingly muted Arctic temperature seasonality, in contrast with an increasingly amplified Antarctic temperature seasonality. This sounds highly promising for us. No doubt the patterns we are currently seeing have a distinct old time look. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Amazing how snow in the forecast loses it's ability to draw people to the forum when it's this late. The models hint at a possible significant event in the morning. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Amazing how snow in the forecast loses it's ability to draw people to the forum when it's this late. The models hint at a possible significant event in the morning.I think you have to be more of a weather geek to get excited about snow this late in the season. That early April trough on the gfs reminds me a bit of the 2008 spring season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 The RGEM and HRDPS also look promising for the central and south sound. Also the HRRR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 35F and chunky rain. Coming down nicely at 600F in the coast range, 32F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Finally back to snow/rain mix. 35 degrees. I'd be super stoked to pick up an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Lolz.If that verifies I'll throw $100 bills into the street Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I can't remember the exact year/date, but I got 2 inches of snow around April 18th - 19th. I lived within the Eugene city limits, but was around 750 feet. The snow fell in the middle of the night, obviously. It was around 10 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I'm excited. Now when will snow start falling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I can't remember the exact year/date, but I got 2 inches of snow around April 18th - 19th. I lived within the Eugene city limits, but was around 750 feet. The snow fell in the middle of the night, obviously. It was around 10 years ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 This sounds highly promising for us. No doubt the patterns we are currently seeing have a distinct old time look.If I’m right (that’s a big if, lol) this should indeed be a remarkable turnaround for your region. Similar to the turnaround we’ve experienced on the east coast. At least one of these next two winters should be very solid out there (I’m leaning towards 2018/19 being better than 2019/20, which looks like a niño to me). But I think the heavyweight stuff comes after the 2019/20 niño, when the solar minimum will be far enough along to retract the IPWP westward and produce a strong multiyear niña spanning the entirety of the early 2020s. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 34.8F and trying to switch to all wet snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Yeah, April 2008 was crazy. 518 thicknesses and -8c @850 over Salem...on April 20th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Going to snow in King County tonight... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Picked up another inch of snow the past couple of hours. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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