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February 2023 Observations and Discussions


Iceresistance

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Yesterday was only our 2nd below normal day of the year. We only experienced 1 below normal day in January that being on January 14. Well for a contrast it looks like we will start the 1st 4 days of February with well below normal temps until we get back to near and then above normal by Sunday. The coldest day looks to be Saturday with a low around 10 degrees and a high in the mid 20's.
A dry period is on tap with no precipitation in the forecast till later next week at the earliest.
The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1967. Our record low is 6 below zero from 1918. Record melted precipitation is 1.69" from 1897 and the record daily snow is the 8.5" that fell in 1897.
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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16 hours ago, chescowxman said:

Below are some interesting snow stats for Chester County looking at the Top 25 seasons with the most snow through January 31st and Top 25 with the least snow through the end of January. I then included the total final snowfall for each of those seasons. So far this season we have the 6th least snow through this point in the season. To show you how unusually snowy the current century has been - 6 of the top 25 snowiest starts to winter have all occurred since 2000. Yet, only 2 times with this year being that year have we had a top 25 least snow through January start. This may give cause to pause for those that seem to think it used to snow more back when they were kids!

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The 1979 to 2010 period was a very snowy period  for Mid-Atlantic  and New England.  Numerous  huge noreasters among  the largest in a century.  Btw what do you have for 1993/1994?  I recall south central PA  being crazy snow and sleet  week after week January  thru March, 96".. perhaps rain near Phili?

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On day 15 of our continuous snowpack/glacier.  Most days the forecasted temp is several degrees colder than they thought.  Maybe 30's by this weekend.  Feel pretty blessed to have had such a deep snowpack for this long compared to how others on here have not had much of anything.  The frozen 3-4" below the drier snow on top may take a long time to melt.  Who knows how long the piles and frozen chunks will be around.  

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7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

On day 15 of our continuous snowpack/glacier.  Most days the forecasted temp is several degrees colder than they thought.  Maybe 30's by this weekend.  Feel pretty blessed to have had such a deep snowpack for this long compared to how others on here have not had much of anything.  The frozen 3-4" below the drier snow on top may take a long time to melt.  Who knows how long the piles and frozen chunks will be around.  

That's awesome. IF you can get that big storm in the middle of winter like you did, a lot of the time it can change your area weather pattern due to the snow pack. Colder temps...

Hopefully, with 7 weeks of winter left, we'll see some big storms to finish out the season. Last year I had a little over 5 inches of snow come Feb. 1st, I finished with over 20 inches of snow in my part of KC. Beautiful finish!!!

Go snow! 

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Should rise above freezing soon, but with light north winds and clouds our big warm up will be delayed for a few hours at least. Either way, should be pushing 70 by Monday. 

 

A good storm system brings rain and thunder chances by Tuesday but I don't see much winter risk here anytime soon. You never know of course, but there is very little ensemble support for snow at this time. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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So for my winter total now I have 2" of snow and maybe 1.1" of sleet. I think the NWS combines sleet into the snow totals so 3.1" would be my seasonal total, spread out over 4 events. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

The 1979 to 2010 period was a very snowy period  for Mid-Atlantic  and New England.  Numerous  huge noreasters among  the largest in a century.  Btw what do you have for 1993/1994?  I recall south central PA  being crazy snow and sleet  week after week January  thru March, 96".. perhaps rain near Phili?

That was the incredible ice storm after snow storm after ice storm winter. We had 17.7" of snow through January with a ton of ice. That January also featured the only day in recorded weather history for Chester County since 1888 to fail to get above zero during a day. We picked up more snow for the remainder of the winter and ended up with 45.7" of snow.

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Big dog in there, now, trend colder!!!!!!!!! One week out

This winter pattern has been a lot of SE Wisconsin getting rain so I have to go to Portage and Cascade to snowboard. I wouldn't be surprised if that was pretty close, that's how it's been playing out.

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro how has the storm for next week.  Looks very similar to GFS and Canadian.  Let's see how this evolves over the weekend into early next week.

The EURO shows two storms it appears. One that hits Tuesday into Wednesday and the next one around the end of the week, but south of our area. In cycle 2, 50 days later would be next week. IF you look back on the threads, you will see we had a storm on Dec. 19th and the cold air poured in after that for the Dec. 22nd storm.(which was too progressive across the country's midsection) So, could we see the same two events next week similar to cycle 2 or will it come out as one big storm late in the week.

Can we get the first one going so it can tug down some cold for the 2nd one heading into SB weekend??? EURO is kind of there on the idea of two separate storms

Stay tuned!

Come on, darn it! 

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25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Brrr. We had a high of 17 around 6:30AM but it's dropped to 3 degrees with a WC of -5. Even with the sunshine it feels downright cold!

I love to rag on the GFS as much as the next guy but I do have to give it some credit with that system around the 9th. It has remained steadfast in showing that storm for the past few days at least while the Canadian and Euro are just now starting to pick up on it, with the Euro being especially slow at recognizing it.

So... slow clap for the GFS but I still remain skeptical on it's overall performance, especially when it comes down to mesoscale details.

You are correct, I was just thinking the same thing.  Funny seeing other models playing catch up to it.  Let's see if it is still there in a couple of days.  Would be quite a coup for the GFS.

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Eastern Lakes getting a real arctic front this evening

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently down at the IA home and it's -2 with a windchill of -26. Glad this is short-lived. Gonna be pushing 40 by Saturday. Mom's birthday tomorrow and I'll be in the recording studio Saturday. Drive back to MN Saturday night. 

Also....snowcover here is pretty legit. I'd say 6-8" snow depth just from eyeballing (didn't do any measurements) 

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I stepped outside on my deck around 4:00am with a temp of +4F and it was bone chilly with a brisk NW wind. It made loud creeks and cracks as I walked to the garbage bins and take out the garbage.  D**n, baby its cold outside!  I think the lack of a deep snow cover may neglect us from reaching subzero at ORD.  Their snow depth is down to only 2" and I'm sure there is to much bare ground around to get the reading to fall much farther.

Just checked and ORD is down to +2F...sunrise is about an hour away so not much time left to dip sub zero...

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On 1/28/2023 at 5:53 AM, Tom said:

BIG battle in the MJO as we head into the early part of FEB.  Who will win?  JMA says "I'll take a break and settle in Phase 3 for a while"...meanwhile, GEFS takes into the warm Phase 4/5/6....and the Euro into the NULL phase but some members are hinting at Phase 4.  I remember @Clintonmentioning the JMA won a big battle the last time so let's see how the models trend as we move into the 1st week of FEB.  

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Here are the temp composites for FEB...

Screen Shot 2023-01-28 at 5.38.47 AM.png

 

 

Another part to this equation that is not helping push the cold south is the spike in both the AO/NAO into + territory, however, the spike in the EPO, albeit brief, is showing signs of heading neutral and even back into - territory.  

My LR call is for a return of the NW NAMER Ridge (-EPO) Week 2 of FEB.  Based on the location of the warming at both 10mb/50mb starting JAN 12th on the animation below, as I've used this technique in the past, I believe that the LR models will being to show more ridging across western Canada/Alaska.   :et's see if it works out this time around.

 

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Well, alrighty then, did the models just take a drink of the "cold brew" for later in Week 2????  Trending much better in the EPO dept and the LR forecasting tool may have proven to be credible.  By the 10th/11th, some of the models are showing a -EPO and expect more to come on board.  In fact, the CFSv2 has come towards this idea in a significant way in recent runs.  

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CFSv2 is fully onboard that as we get into the middle part of FEB...the Blow Torch is going to be "gone with the wind" that'll be blowing out of the North..straight out of the Arctic and off of the Upper MW Glacier.

 

 

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Now I see why the CFSv2 is not being "SHY" developing High Latitude Blocking to close out FEB and into MAR.  This may end up being one of the biggest Flip Flops in the global modeling of the season.  Actually, let's put it this way, it'll be the best flop in FAVOR of a Winter Wx Fan bc if you remember, ALL the models practically were showing a fantastic DEC but that did NOT pan out.  Instead, we flopped into a warm DEC.  Could the tails have turned now?  I believe so and there are several LR clues that favor this outcome.  

Here we go...

temp30anim.gif

 

CFSv2 keeps trending towards a monster trough carving out into the majority our SUB...

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Any systems out there that will deliver more interesting winter games??  Yup, a Valentines Day storm is brewing and this one I see shaping up for the heartland. @CentralNebWeather looks to be in a sweet spot...among his NE crew and up towards the W GL's.  Let's see how much blocking comes into play bc this system and a following storm later in the week around the 17/18th are lining up as well.

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We had a few snow showers this morning with the passage of the arctic cold front. Temperatures have fallen off from 32.7 at just before 5am to now 24.3 at 8am. Temps should steady off but not rise much this morning before falling again by mid-afternoon. We should see reading in the teens by 4pm and fall to around 8 degrees by tomorrow morning. It will be windy today with wind chills near to below zero through tonight. Tomorrow will be cold but much less wind. A warm up to again back above normal begins Sunday and we stay above normal for the rest of next week. Our next chance of rain will not be till next Thursday.
The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1991. Our record low was way back in 1895 at 4 below zero. Daily precipitation record is the 1.63" that fell today in 2014. Daily snow record is the 11.0" that fell in 1961 as part of a 2 day storm that ended on the 4th with 13.2" of snow falling.
image.png.a5d44ded1d809d11a7ecb0f6665f15d9.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Temperatures still looking toasty Monday, mid to upper 60s here. I see no sign of any real return to winter yet on the models for my area. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

KC will get a huge snow on 2/14 because I will be in Dallas that day.  That's the one day this winter I will be out of town.  

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LOL...we appreciate you helping us out here in KC! 

Yikes, the GFS went to boring and warm on it's latest runs, the CMC is trending that way too. 

As Joe Laurie would say, our snow window is closing. 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro with just enough cold air to tease me.

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Aaaaah!  Look at that little monster run away!  Good riddance!  This thing gave me the worst headache. 
“Ciao Bella!”

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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