February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

I see JB is using FEB 2018 as an analog....that was a big month over here...so was last year, but I'm not really inclined to believe we'll get to 20" this year.  MAR may end up being the bigger month.

[chescowxman]

2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

The 1979 to 2010 period was a very snowy period  for Mid-Atlantic  and New England.  Numerous  huge noreasters among  the largest in a century.  Btw what do you have for 1993/1994?  I recall south central PA  being crazy snow and sleet  week after week January  thru March, 96".. perhaps rain near Phili?

That was the incredible ice storm after snow storm after ice storm winter. We had 17.7" of snow through January with a ton of ice. That January also featured the only day in recorded weather history for Chester County since 1888 to fail to get above zero during a day. We picked up more snow for the remainder of the winter and ended up with 45.7" of snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Canadian and GFS look remarkably similar for the storm next Wed./Thurs.  Lots of moisture, and where ever it ultimately tracks, some on the NW side will get some wet snow accumulation it appears.  Something to watch over the weekend and see if a possible thread is needed early next week.

[gabel23]

This is impressive. 

 

 

[gabel23]

Meanwhile us in Central/Eastern Nebraska mother nature has thrown us the finger. 

 

 

 

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Big dog in there, now, trend colder!!!!!!!!! One week out

This winter pattern has been a lot of SE Wisconsin getting rain so I have to go to Portage and Cascade to snowboard. I wouldn't be surprised if that was pretty close, that's how it's been playing out.

[CentralNebWeather]

51 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Meanwhile us in Central/Eastern Nebraska mother nature has thrown us the finger. 

 

 

 

I see that my county is in the green, so I'm above average.  Just to the NW is even more.  Very interesting map of haves and have nots.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro now has the storm for next week.  Looks very similar to GFS and Canadian.  Let's see how this evolves over the weekend into early next week.

[Tom]

Popped up above freezing (33F) and some melting in the full sun.  Top layer has also settled a bit and down to aboit 3” snow depth.  Snow cover should last through Sat but more likely gone Mon.

[MIKEKC]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro how has the storm for next week.  Looks very similar to GFS and Canadian.  Let's see how this evolves over the weekend into early next week.

The EURO shows two storms it appears. One that hits Tuesday into Wednesday and the next one around the end of the week, but south of our area. In cycle 2, 50 days later would be next week. IF you look back on the threads, you will see we had a storm on Dec. 19th and the cold air poured in after that for the Dec. 22nd storm.(which was too progressive across the country's midsection) So, could we see the same two events next week similar to cycle 2 or will it come out as one big storm late in the week.

Can we get the first one going so it can tug down some cold for the 2nd one heading into SB weekend??? EURO is kind of there on the idea of two separate storms

Stay tuned!

Come on, darn it! 

[MIKEKC]

Looking at the data this morning, that is a potent artic smash job heading in tonight. Down to around 8-10 degrees in KC and -30 in Minnesota?? Aggressive

[tStacsh]

This cold air, even as dry as it is,  will dumb over 6"  on the immediate lake shore.  Not in my neighborhood though.   

[hawkstwelve]

Brrr. We had a high of 17 around 6:30AM but it's dropped to 3 degrees with a WC of -5. Even with the sunshine it feels downright cold!

I love to rag on the GFS as much as the next guy but I do have to give it some credit with that system around the 9th. It has remained steadfast in showing that storm for the past few days at least while the Canadian and Euro are just now starting to pick up on it, with the Euro being especially slow at recognizing it.

So... slow clap for the GFS but I still remain skeptical on it's overall performance, especially when it comes down to mesoscale details.

[CentralNebWeather]

25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Brrr. We had a high of 17 around 6:30AM but it's dropped to 3 degrees with a WC of -5. Even with the sunshine it feels downright cold!

I love to rag on the GFS as much as the next guy but I do have to give it some credit with that system around the 9th. It has remained steadfast in showing that storm for the past few days at least while the Canadian and Euro are just now starting to pick up on it, with the Euro being especially slow at recognizing it.

So... slow clap for the GFS but I still remain skeptical on it's overall performance, especially when it comes down to mesoscale details.

You are correct, I was just thinking the same thing.  Funny seeing other models playing catch up to it.  Let's see if it is still there in a couple of days.  Would be quite a coup for the GFS.

[WinterSquall23]

Temp is 32 now. Streets are mostly clear of snow from the sun we had most of the day.   Wind picking up and blowing the powder snow right off our roof.  High of 10 tomorrow.  What a rollercoaster of temps. 

[Iceresistance]

I may get dumped with the rain instead of the snow next week.

[jaster220]

Eastern Lakes getting a real arctic front this evening

[james1976]

Currently down at the IA home and it's -2 with a windchill of -26. Glad this is short-lived. Gonna be pushing 40 by Saturday. Mom's birthday tomorrow and I'll be in the recording studio Saturday. Drive back to MN Saturday night. 

Also....snowcover here is pretty legit. I'd say 6-8" snow depth just from eyeballing (didn't do any measurements) 

[Tom]

A look back in history not long ago, when there were real winter storms that hit the region....12 years ago, the infamous "Ground Hog Day Blizzard" struck...soo many good memories from this beast!  

https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/a-look-back-at-the-historic-groundhog-day-blizzard-of-2011/ 

[Tom]

I stepped outside on my deck around 4:00am with a temp of +4F and it was bone chilly with a brisk NW wind. It made loud creeks and cracks as I walked to the garbage bins and take out the garbage.  D**n, baby its cold outside!  I think the lack of a deep snow cover may neglect us from reaching subzero at ORD.  Their snow depth is down to only 2" and I'm sure there is to much bare ground around to get the reading to fall much farther.

Just checked and ORD is down to +2F...sunrise is about an hour away so not much time left to dip sub zero...

[Tom]

The Ice Box of the nation living up to it's name....Ouch!

 

 

 

[Tom]

On 1/28/2023 at 5:53 AM, Tom said:

BIG battle in the MJO as we head into the early part of FEB.  Who will win?  JMA says "I'll take a break and settle in Phase 3 for a while"...meanwhile, GEFS takes into the warm Phase 4/5/6....and the Euro into the NULL phase but some members are hinting at Phase 4.  I remember @Clintonmentioning the JMA won a big battle the last time so let's see how the models trend as we move into the 1st week of FEB.  

 

 

 

 

Here are the temp composites for FEB...

 

 

Another part to this equation that is not helping push the cold south is the spike in both the AO/NAO into + territory, however, the spike in the EPO, albeit brief, is showing signs of heading neutral and even back into - territory.  

My LR call is for a return of the NW NAMER Ridge (-EPO) Week 2 of FEB.  Based on the location of the warming at both 10mb/50mb starting JAN 12th on the animation below, as I've used this technique in the past, I believe that the LR models will being to show more ridging across western Canada/Alaska.   :et's see if it works out this time around.

 

 

 

 

Well, alrighty then, did the models just take a drink of the "cold brew" for later in Week 2????  Trending much better in the EPO dept and the LR forecasting tool may have proven to be credible.  By the 10th/11th, some of the models are showing a -EPO and expect more to come on board.  In fact, the CFSv2 has come towards this idea in a significant way in recent runs.  

 

CFSv2 is fully onboard that as we get into the middle part of FEB...the Blow Torch is going to be "gone with the wind" that'll be blowing out of the North..straight out of the Arctic and off of the Upper MW Glacier.

 

 

 

Now I see why the CFSv2 is not being "SHY" developing High Latitude Blocking to close out FEB and into MAR.  This may end up being one of the biggest Flip Flops in the global modeling of the season.  Actually, let's put it this way, it'll be the best flop in FAVOR of a Winter Wx Fan bc if you remember, ALL the models practically were showing a fantastic DEC but that did NOT pan out.  Instead, we flopped into a warm DEC.  Could the tails have turned now?  I believe so and there are several LR clues that favor this outcome.  

Here we go...

 

CFSv2 keeps trending towards a monster trough carving out into the majority our SUB...

Any systems out there that will deliver more interesting winter games??  Yup, a Valentines Day storm is brewing and this one I see shaping up for the heartland. @CentralNebWeather looks to be in a sweet spot...among his NE crew and up towards the W GL's.  Let's see how much blocking comes into play bc this system and a following storm later in the week around the 17/18th are lining up as well.

 

 

[chescowxman]

We had a few snow showers this morning with the passage of the arctic cold front. Temperatures have fallen off from 32.7 at just before 5am to now 24.3 at 8am. Temps should steady off but not rise much this morning before falling again by mid-afternoon. We should see reading in the teens by 4pm and fall to around 8 degrees by tomorrow morning. It will be windy today with wind chills near to below zero through tonight. Tomorrow will be cold but much less wind. A warm up to again back above normal begins Sunday and we stay above normal for the rest of next week. Our next chance of rain will not be till next Thursday.

The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1991. Our record low was way back in 1895 at 4 below zero. Daily precipitation record is the 1.63" that fell today in 2014. Daily snow record is the 11.0" that fell in 1961 as part of a 2 day storm that ended on the 4th with 13.2" of snow falling.

[Madtown]

temps above freezing all next week up here....what the heck?

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

temps above freezing all next week up here....what the heck?

La nina.  1 week of cold 3 weeks of warmth.  Just the way it's been.  

[Black Hole]

Temperatures still looking toasty Monday, mid to upper 60s here. I see no sign of any real return to winter yet on the models for my area. 

[sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Any systems out there that will deliver more interesting winter games??  Yup, a Valentines Day storm is brewing and this one I see shaping up for the heartland. @CentralNebWeather looks to be in a sweet spot...among his NE crew and up towards the W GL's.  Let's see how much blocking comes into play bc this system and a following storm later in the week around the 17/18th are lining up as well.

 

KC will get a huge snow on 2/14 because I will be in Dallas that day.  That's the one day this winter I will be out of town.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS, storm next week, "she gone".  Let's see if it comes back or not.

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

KC will get a huge snow on 2/14 because I will be in Dallas that day.  That's the one day this winter I will be out of town.  

LOL...we appreciate you helping us out here in KC! 

Yikes, the GFS went to boring and warm on it's latest runs, the CMC is trending that way too. 

As Joe Laurie would say, our snow window is closing. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Storms gone on the GFS and a rainmaker for the Euro, and then it’s going to turn cold? Yay brown and cold it is.

[sumweatherdude]

38 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

LOL...we appreciate you helping us out here in KC! 

Yikes, the GFS went to boring and warm on it's latest runs, the CMC is trending that way too. 

As Joe Laurie would say, our snow window is closing. 

If the latest GFS were to verify (which I realize it won't), central Mississippi would have a higher seasonal snowfall total than KC. 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie is going to love the WPC map

[Clinton]

12z Euro with just enough cold air to tease me.

[Black Hole]

Not exactly a good look for snow the next 10 days. It's all locked up in the arctic for now. 

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro with just enough cold air to tease me.

Aaaaah!  Look at that little monster run away!  Good riddance!  This thing gave me the worst headache. 
“Ciao Bella!”

[Timmy Supercell]

Cold day today, it wouldn't be so bad if this was calm air, but a constant light wind out here makes it around 20-25 degrees the whole afternoon. High 33. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Not exactly a good look for snow the next 10 days. It's all locked up in the arctic for now. 

I'm thinking of removing Winter of 22-23 off my signature..

Not only is the snow not here, even 21-22 had a bunch more rainfall on top than this. Both kinds of precip right now I'm sure are behind on the previous winter.

[Iceresistance]

HOLY CRAP! ALL-TIME NATIONAL COLDEST WIND CHILL RECORD HAS FALLEN!

 

 

 

[Madtown]

March will be rockin.... 40 degrees in northern wi next week...stop it!

[Tom]

Well, this was the PV configuration ALL the models were predicting prior to the recent SSW spike, but are they right this time for the middle of the month?  I'm really curious to see what Judah Cohen has to say bc this is a good picture...maybe some of you who are good at digging up analogs can say what years were good below ('04, '06, '07, '08). Some of those years iirc were La Nina's.

 

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Well, this was the PV configuration ALL the models were predicting prior to the recent SSW spike, but are they right this time for the middle of the month?  I'm really curious to see what Judah Cohen has to say bc this is a good picture...maybe some of you who are good at digging up analogs can say what years were good below ('04, '06, '07, '08). Some of those years iirc were La Nina's.

 

 

Bastardi is comparing it to Feb of 84.

[Black Hole]

We (meaning OK) are nearing the end of the peak snow period climatologically, which runs Jan 15-Feb 15 for Tulsa. On average, more than half of the snow we will see has occurred by now, with 3/4 having occurred by Feb 20th, and 90% by March 10th...which is roughly what I consider the end of snow season most years. To that end, as it takes a few weeks for these SSWs to work out, our window is closing quick down here. Hope models start showing something good soon!

At least a few are showing a chance of a dusting next Friday now so I can work with that. 

[westMJim]

For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 15/5. That high of 15 tied December 23rd for the coldest maximum for this winter season so far and it may be the coldest for this winter. So far the coldest low has been +2 on January 31st and that also may be the coldest for this winter season. There was 0.1" of snow fall yesterday and the seasonal total is now at 81.5" It was a sunny day with 87% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 53 was set in 1962 and the record low of -17 was set in 1996. The record snow fall of 10" was recorded in 1900. 

[Clinton]

Warm and windy weekend, I could make a run  into the 60s on Monday.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Bastardi is comparing it to Feb of 84.

Last year, Feb/Mar both came up slightly above average and then we had a cold April in KY.

But still, last March did touch off the season with a nice snowstorm mid month.

[westMJim]

@TomWhile not a area wide analog but none the less over here in west Michigan a similar winter season up to this point the winter of 2001/02.

 Here is a fun fact. This past January was the 5^th warmest on record here in Grand Rapids but it was just the 3 warmest in the last 30 years. Going back to 1892 at Grand Rapids all the years when the January mean temperature at GR was 30 or better the following February was colder than January except for 2002. In the winter of 2001/02  December 2001 had a mean of 33..9. January had a mean of 30.2 February had a mean of 30.6 and March had a mean of 30.9.  53.9” of snow fall in December 2001 January came in with 17.5, February had 8.7 but March had 22.6 and April added 2.0” more. This year so far at GR November had 28.0” December 36.6” January 13.5” could the winter of 2022/23 be like the winter of 2001/02? BTW May 2002 was the 9^th coldest of record at Grand Rapids.

[chescowxman]

A chilly morning with our 3rd single digit low of this mild winter season with a low of 9.8 above zero. Today was the 3rd coldest temperature of the winter season and the coldest temperature since the 2.8 degrees above zero temperature on Christmas Eve morning. We should rebound today into the mid 20's with the warmup fully underway tomorrow. We should see upper 40's for high temps for most of the rest of the week with even low 50's possible by Wednesday though Friday. Our next rain chances look to be by Thursday.

The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1991. The record low is 1 below zero set way back in 1898. The daily precipitation record is the 1.35" that fell in 1920. The daily snow record is the 9.1" that fell as part of a 2 day snowstorm in 1995 that resulted in 10.5" of snow. That one storm accounted for all but 3.0" of snow that would fall that entire winter season. That season was sandwiched between the epic ice and snow winter of 1993-94 when we received 45.7" of snow on top of a lot of ice and the snowy winter of 1995-96 when we received 81.9" of snow. At the time that was the 2nd snowiest winter in Chester County history behind only the 95.0" that fell in the winter of 1898-99 . However we would blow past that mark with the 86.7" of snow that fell in 2009-10 and surpass the 80" inch snow total again in 2013-14 with exactly 80.0" of snow recorded in that winter.

[gimmesnow]

20 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Not exactly a good look for snow the next 10 days. It's all locked up in the arctic for now. 

In SE Wisconsin we're heading towards the time of year where even if we get a lot of snow, the sun is stronger and it melts pretty quickly. Next 10 days being so warm ensures that if we get a "backloaded winter" in the last few weeks of February and maybe into early March that it's the type of snow that only really stays around for a few days, making it useless for snowmobiling and the freeze thaw of the sun makes snowboarding and skiing bad because the man made snow is freeze-thawing every day, giving it that famous "man made snow is icy" feel.

The lake isn't even frozen enough to snowmobile on, at this point I'm ready to siphon the gas out of my snowmobile and get it ready for jet ski.

[mlgamer]

It was nine years ago today that Topeka had a snowfall of greater than six inches. Nine years.

13" of snow fell on February 4, 2014.

Areas 15-20 miles to the east have done better than that...but not here.

[chescowxman]

Some updated stats for the last 130 years for Chester County PA. Comparing ~90 years of data from 1894 to 1983 vs. the last ~40 years to see if any warming or cooling by month and annually away from problem UHI areas like in my area The PHL Airport. Of note 6 months have warmer averages and 6 months have cooler averages. Overall only a 0.3 degree warming during our current warmer cycle.