February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Andie]

Tuesday and Wednesday will bring rain to No Tx. Temps happily above freezing at 58-62.  

It would have been nice to receive snow but unfortunately we tend to get sleet and ice.  
A spring like 55 today. 

[Black Hole]

This popped up on today's 12z GFS. Unlikely to verify because its probably missing the forecast for the preceding event. But fun to look at either way. 

[OKwx2k4]

6 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

This popped up on today's 12z GFS. Unlikely to verify because its probably missing the forecast for the preceding event. But fun to look at either way. 

Well, THATS surprising. Nice. 

The GFS is getting pretty wonky these days.

[Black Hole]

Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

Well, THATS surprising. Nice. 

The GFS is getting pretty wonky these days.

It didn't do well with the last event at all, but I will say the ICON today and 12z ECMWF yesterday at least hinted at something similar to the GFS...but with more marginal temps and precip. So maybe flakes aren't out of the question, but over a foot probably is lol. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 possible snow day on wunderground.. After a couple warm days. Middle of next week looks like Spring.

[OKwx2k4]

2 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

It didn't do well with the last event at all, but I will say the ICON today and 12z ECMWF yesterday at least hinted at something similar to the GFS...but with more marginal temps and precip. So maybe flakes aren't out of the question, but over a foot probably is lol. 

Correct. We've been doing really well at gaining from cold air being in just the right places over here off the edge of the plateau to get mountain-style snows out of those this year, so sticky, pretty wet snow is probably the best outcome. 

What I will say about the GFS is that sometimes this year at huge leads though its flashed what's coming, lost it for 6 days and then went right back to right again. 

I didn't expect anyone (or model) to call that 4 day wreck accurately. Lol. Too much background noise and energy shooting through all at once. We've never exceeded the modeled snowfall since November over here, but this concrete on the ground was fun. The last of it is melting out today.

Pretty day.

[OKwx2k4]

A major positive for Oklahoma and Texas both is the slow and steady return of moisture in the form of good rainfall in our warm spells. A blessing after varied drought threats the last few seasons. 

 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Bastardi is comparing it to Feb of 84.

I clearly remember the cold and snowy March. Odd that I cannot remember the warmth of Feb. Especially since I had just finished rebuilding my first snowmobile as a teenager and was keen on whether we were getting good riding conditions or not?

[mlgamer]

40 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I clearly remember the cold and snowy March. Odd that I cannot remember the warmth of Feb. Especially since I had just finished rebuilding my first snowmobile as a teenager and was keen on whether we were getting good riding conditions or not?

We had one of our very worst ice storms here in March, 1984. I remember it very well.

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

We had one of our very worst ice storms here in March, 1984. I remember it very well.

We were having our 5th or 6th massive snowstorm storm/blizzard when you had that ice storm. The winter of 1983-1984 is still remembered around here for snow and record cold. I was in Junior High at the time. Many snow days. 

[mlgamer]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We were having our 5th or 6th massive snowstorm storm/blizzard when you had that ice storm. The winter of 1983-1984 is still remembered around here for snow and record cold. I was in Junior High at the time. Many snow days. 

Those winters of the 70s into the mid 80s were awesome! Wish they'd come back...lol

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Those winters of the 70s into the mid 80s were awesome! Wish they'd come back...lol

Man I miss those years.  Nice snows that stuck around more than 2 days.

[mlgamer]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Man I miss those years.  Nice snows that stuck around more than 2 days.

Topeka had (I think a record) at least 1" of snow on the ground for something like 54 consecutive days in one of those winters in the early 80s. Hard to believe.

[Andie]

A friend of the family sent this regarding the front that left me and hit them in Mass. last night. Yikes! That’s cold  

“Minus 16 last night.  Wind chill minus 32.  Heat wave of 7 today.  Don’t know why I still live here but I have said those words every day for the last 50 plus years.”  

[jaster220]

I see this recent cold front that brought the arctic chill lit-up the Lakes in certain favored snow belts including the UP and NMI. When I saw these two reports, made me wonder just how closely related they are? Something funny in Yooper Land??

As for the one above those, why can't I get paid to observe snow? LOL tho, do we REALLY need to pay for another amongst thousands of volunteered reports. In my book, this falls in the category of needless and wasteful spending. I already know it snows in Michigan, and a lot in certain parts of my state. I don't think we need to pay anyone other than the NWS Peeps to tell us that. 

[hawkstwelve]

We had a high of 43 here today which is almost 30 degrees higher than yesterday's high temp. It's also good for our first high in the 40s since 12/6/22.

Felt downright spring-like out there! Very nice day.

[Andie]

On Saturday, wind gusts peaked at around 127 miles per hour at Mt. Washington. The observatory also recorded an actual temperature of 47 degrees below zero, tying an observatory record set in 1934.

[Madtown]

looks like that's all for the cold as of now -26 for the official low so far this winter. 18atm.

[westMJim]

Good morning!  With a lot of sunshine the official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 35/9 there was 84% of possible sunshine thus there was no rain or snow fall. There was officially 5” of snow on the ground at GRR. Here at my house the temperature fell to 21 last night before midnight and then has gone up to the current reading of 35 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 52 was set in 1991 and the record low of -16 was set way back in 1895. The most snow fall of 7.5” was in 2021. This week looks to be mild with several chances for rain and maybe some snow. Temperatures continue to look to be above average.

 

[WinterSquall23]

18 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We were having our 5th or 6th massive snowstorm storm/blizzard when you had that ice storm. The winter of 1983-1984 is still remembered around here for snow and record cold. I was in Junior High at the time. Many snow days. 

Same in western Washington,  those years were awesome for snowfall. We had record cold in 1989.  Froze our pool so thick we could walk on it.  Then we cut the ice out of it and my Dad helped me and my brothers make an igloo out of it.  We placed it on the North side of our house where it would last the longest.  That igloo lasted till March.  Awesome! 

[Tom]

It’s interesting to see that the run off from the gutters is a frozen sheet of ice on the concrete even though it’s been above freezing since yesterday morning.  Those cold nights must have froze up the ground pretty good.  Of note, there wasn’t that much melting yesterday even during midday when temps were held up in the upper 30’s along with filtered sunshine.  
 

The sun is back out today so it should get to work!  I gotta tell ya, this is the longest stretch of sunny days since I got here before Christmas.  

[chescowxman]

The big warmup is underway as temps have risen from a midnight low of 21.0 to already above freezing across all of Chester County. The mild and mostly dry weather will continue till our next rain chance on Thursday. A couple models have enough cold air getting involved by overnight Friday into Saturday AM to deliver some snow....but as we have seen this winter - I would not get the snow blowers gassed up just yet!

Of note 9 years ago today (see below) in 2014 we were in the midst of a crippling ice storm sandwiched between 2 snowstorms. We received 10.3" of snow on February 3rd followed by an ice storm that began overnight on the 5th temps fell into the 20's and would remain below freezing for 9 straight days with another snowstorm on the 13th and 14th delivering an additional 20" of snow to Chester County. On the morning of the 15th we had 26" of snow and ice on the ground and finished the month with 39.4" of snow. However, that 39.4" was well below our record snows for the month of February having been exceeded just 4 years earlier with the 62.8" of snow that fell in February 2010 and the all-time greatest monthly snow totals being the 69.8" that fell in February 1899. Of interest there was also snow continuously on the ground during the winter of 2014 for 50 straight days from January 21st through March 11th.

[james1976]

I was in Iowa City yesterday. Reached 52°! Very springlike. Back up in MN currently 25°. We have 30s up here this week so it should chip away at the snowcover. 

[Stacsh]

Wasted winter with active storms.  Torch time for mid February.   Gross.  

[Niko]

Still have this nice  glacier, snowcover. I have had true winter condition's here over the last week or 2, but this will be washed away next week. Its too bad this cant keep going. It has to warm up and spoil the beautiful scenery outside. Everything is iced up and snowcover everywhere. Oh well, let the bare ground return once again. Temps next week could reach near 50F w plenty of rain chances. By next weekend, we cool back down again w/ temps in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Time is running out here and we are approaching a little over a month left of winter and that's it. Lets see how the rest of this winter evolves.

[jaster220]

On 2/5/2023 at 12:46 PM, Stacsh said:

Wasted winter with active storms.  Torch time for mid February.   Gross.  

I'd rather have torching and rainfall then continued weeks of CAD. Without any LES around here to freshen-up the covering, the snow here gets really bad looking, even without too many warm days. Snow is so fragile. It really is

[OKwx2k4]

There are still signs that winter won't be gone for all of February. 

I saw where Cosgrove thinks we're just in a break with more to come at the late part of the month. I agree. Going to be pretty  volatile in the south and east flank of our forum by months end. Setting up a wild spring.

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'd rather have torching and rainfall then continued weeks of CAD. Without and LES around here to freshen-up the covering, the snow here gets really bad looking, even without too many warm days. Snow is so fragile. It really is

I wouldn't imagine anyone really enjoys seeing their snow get darker every day even if there's a good amount of it. Its not really something I've ever had to deal with here. Haven't kept much in the way of snowcover the last few years. 

Back in 2011, the snow stayed beautiful here only because there was so much of it and it was like -27 somewhere in there. Lol. Hard to mess up snow at that temperature.

[westMJim]

Good morning!  So far this year there have been 30 days with a above average mean and just 6 days with a below average mean. Yesterday was that 30^th day above. With a H/L of 39/29 there was a trace of snow fall yesterday with the cold front but before that there was 29% of possible sunshine. We are now starting our slow climb of average temperatures and the average H/L is now at 32/18. The record high for today is 54 set in 1938 and the record low of -9 was set in 1895 and 1977. The record snow fall of 8.1” fell in 2008. The next 5 days look to stay warmer than average and there will several periods of rain, so there should be a good amount of snow melt this week.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There are still signs that winter won't be gone for all of February. 

I saw where Cosgrove thinks we're just in a break with more to come at the late part of the month. I agree. Going to be pretty  volatile in the south and east flank of our forum by months end. Setting up a wild spring.

The way the storms are digging into your region and the SSW that'll pop mid month, this will drive the jet south into MAR...just watch, you'll prob get your biggest snow in MAR!

0z Euro...current 10mb temp anomaly

 

Day 10...is this the final warming??

 

I may have been a little to quick on the development of the NW NAMER ridge in Week 2, but I think the models are now starting to head that way around the 15th-17th.  I see the GEFS and EPS starting to show the Alaskan Ridge firing up but we are going to have a hard time to press the cold south into our Southern and Eastern Sub bc of the lack of a -NAO and a dagger of a -PNA, however, that -NAO should pop late FEB around President's is my prediction.  Not only will it fire up, it appears that it will last well into MAR so don't put your snow shovels away just yet.

The way the warming shifts up towards NE Canada/Greenland late in JAN/early FEB is a LR signal to watch out for the Greenland/Baffin Bay Block post 20th-22nd of this month.

 

CFSv2 showing a lot of dryness over Eastern Canada and that is a strong signal there will be High Pressure in this region. Mr. Geenland Block will be making an appearance...nice looking corridor of AN precip and cold temps through the Heartland of the Nation...

 

[Tom]

Euro Seasonal suggesting the -NAO to lock as we head into MET Spring...ugly Spring being forecast around the MW/GL's...

[Tom]

Check this out, something drew my attn this morning to flip through the 0z GFS 10mb Op run from last night and this is what it showed...PV Split and sends a lobe directly over the U.S.!!!  

[chescowxman]

Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday.

The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.

[sumweatherdude]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Check this out, something drew my attn this morning to flip through the 0z GFS 10mb Op run from last night and this is what it showed...PV Split and sends a lobe directly over the U.S.!!!  

Does this translate to surface features?  Seems like when I read about the PV, there's often discussion about whether the surface temps will actually be affected.  Thanks.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Does this translate to surface features?  Seems like when I read about the PV, there's often discussion about whether the surface temps will actually be affected.  Thanks.

It is a trickle down effect…typically 2-3 weeks

[hawkstwelve]

Looking pretty uneventful for FSD for the next while. Storm track is just too suppressed to bring storms this far north. Maybe some table scraps here and there but for the most part, hit the snooze button.

Up to 38 here with partly sunny skies most of the day. The past three days have all had highs above freezing and mostly sunny skies. Not a bad way to spend the snoozy period. 

[Clinton]

Another record high today.  I wish I had kept track of how many of these we've had in the last 5 months.

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

***RECORD***...Kansas City has reached 70 degrees tying the record of 70 set in 1904! #ToastyInKC #HappyMay

[Timmy Supercell]

[Clinton]

Latest Euro Weeklies support a cold finish to February and March.  Looks to be dominated by a phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO, and -WPO.  Where was this in Jan and the first half of February when it matters most.

[Clinton]

500mb maps from the Weeklies.

[james1976]

Right?^^

I have a feeling we're gonna have a delayed spring.

Or a late winter for some on here?

I had a nice run but it's been boring for a while and now it's starting to warm up a bit and daylight is getting longer. Hard to not think spring.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Quite the run by the 0Z GFS…. If you’re in the same areas that have been hit all winter, i.e. north and west.

[Tom]

It's officially 50F at ORD, southerly winds are pumping up a warm and Spring-like airmass out ahead of the CF that is approaching the area literally a 1/2 a county away.  It sure smells like a taste of Spring this morning. The snow depth yesterday was officially "0", which means ,that from Jan 25th thru Feb 5th we had at least 1" of snow OTG.  Sadly, it looks like we had our 11 days of "Winter".  ORD had a consistent snow cover throughout this period and will probably end up being the longest streak of the season.

[Tom]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Latest Euro Weeklies support a cold finish to February and March.  Looks to be dominated by a phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO, and -WPO.  Where was this in Jan and the first half of February when it matters most.

The 2nd half of this month should really bump up season snow totals for many out here from the Plains towards the GL's.  It's iffy how far south the cold bleeds post President's day.

 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was a very nice early February day with lots of sunshine (77%) and one again mild temperatures with a official H/L of 36/24. There was no rain or snow before midnight and the day started with 3” of snow on the ground.  After the temperature dropped to 30 here last evening the temperature rose to the current reading here and at the airport of 43. There was some very light rain fall overnight. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 52 was set in 2009 and the record low of -15 was set in 1899. The record snow fall of 8.1” fell in 1933. The next 5 days continue to offer mild temperatures with a good chance of some heavier rain fall on Thursday. Still no cold air in the forecast.

[chescowxman]

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south.

Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

[tStacsh]

Warmuary looks to continue through at least the 15th here in SMI.   60 in my forecast for next week...

[Black Hole]

 In terms of winter weather for the southern states I remain pessimistic on chances for the next 10 days with just too much warmth and low pressure to the north, limiting any cold potential to spill south.

Some signs that this could change in the 10-15 day period. EPS showing above normal pressure and below normal temperatures as a deep trough sets up where we've had the anomalous warmth. We will see if any systems can capitalize on it, but in most cases you need that in place down here to get any snow or ice. 

 

[Black Hole]

ECMWF weeklies for the last week of the month showing that pattern change persisting, and the signal is still obvious even on the 1 month average well into March. 

Hard to say whether that means much in any given spot, especially further south, but I do think winter is not even close to done for the central plains and points north. 

 

[Bellona]

Suddenly eastern and northeastern Iowa is looking at a 3-6  event tomorrow night and Thursday. No headlines from DMX yet, did mention thundersnow possible. Heavy, wet stuff.