Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
With the summer season quickly approaching and the fact I now have access to much more station data then in the past. I went back to the complete Chester County PA data set of 26 stations with some having data back to the 1890's. I wanted to see if the number of hot days as defined by 90 degrees is increasing or decreasing here in Chester County?? I separated the stations by their elevation above sea level as we know with increasing elevation there are far less days that surpass 90 degrees. Of the 26 stations in the data the majority (17) stations are sited below 500 ft above sea level (ASL) While only 9 stations are sited at above 500 ft ASL. Going forward with the data here in the 2020's we will still have the majority of stations (11) that are located at lower elevations while 7 of the current stations are in the relatively higher spots.
The data which is analyzed by average number of 90 degree days by decade is quite clear that the number of 90 plus days is decreasing at all elevations. In fact the 2020's to date are trending as the 2nd least 90+ days at the lower spots and at the lowest level in the higher spots. Can you imagine back when we really had hot summers like in the 1930's through 1950's how tough it must have been without air conditioning??
Nice to see models converging on an end to this thing. Could be as early as Monday... Today's Euro has a stout marine layer all through that afternoon, and there's now a decent chance heights don't recover in the days after that.
Given the way this Spring has gone, I'd say there are good odds the trough at D8-10 really happens, or perhaps even gets pushed forward in timing.
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