Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
All guidance has some fairly prolific PSCZ activity over Seattle next week, under strong, cool NW flow. From experience these PSCZ's are usually overdone by global models, hopefully we get one to sit overhead and even the deficit just a tad. The front ahead of next week's airmass is rain shadow-y weak sauce so it'll be up to the postfrontal convection. Never a good sign to rely on that.
18z GFS makes me actually so mad. Saturday's system clouds us up while cutting off the rain right across the sound. Hate you too, mother nature. No sun OR wetting rain! Amazing. Worst of both worlds
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