Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
The other day when we had the high risk did not pan out in the OKC area. There was one strong storm with damaging winds but that was it. I could see the power flashes with that one to my north. At my house in Tulsa there was an inch of rain but nothing too exciting. Obviously the EF4 that was north of Tulsa was the real deal, a total monster.
There is lots of talk about why things did not live up to the potential. In my opinion it was because the downdrafts were too cold and strong. I think the dry air aloft entrained and diluted the storms to some degree, but then the cold downdrafts that resulted choked things off. Further east where that strong storm formed it was not as dry aloft.
It looks pretty serious today for MO down into TN/KY right now.
Looks like they're basically going with what the GEFS shows. The 12z Euro is quite a bit cooler for the mid section of the country.
Not for the PNW, though.
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