PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Winterdog]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the radar and having no knowledge of what the ECMWF was showing... I would not expect it to snow tonight at your house.    But I think it will!

It’ll be interesting to see if the Euro drops the CZ on tonight’s run.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It’ll be interesting to see if the Euro drops the CZ on tonight’s run.  

whiskey tango november

[Phil]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

End of 12Z ECMWF... @Phil !!

Yeah but I need precip.

9 hours ago, MossMan said:

We are due for a dud after this epic stretch of winter greatness since 2016/17! But we are also overdue for an epic November! 

I knew after 2013/14 - 2015/16 that a bunch of crappy winters were incoming. Just how it works. Thankfully the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP is coming soon.  

5 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

My wife is in Clarksville, TN visiting our daughter and it looks like the overnight hours might get some exciting weather.

Severe storms seem likely and an outside chance of tornadoes. They are under a High Wind Warning up to 60mph.

My son in law is from Omaha so he has experience with this kind of weather.

Nervous, but wish I was there too!!

Yeah this is an angry little cyclone.

If E/SE winds hit 40mph here there will be problems because we never get strong wind from that direction. Would be worse than 75mph from the W/NW.

[Winterdog]

14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It’ll be interesting to see if the Euro drops the CZ on tonight’s run.  

The Euro didn't drop the CZ.

[Phil]

End of the 00z CMC.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Slushy Inch]

Startup on Route 2 being buried by the convergence zone.

[bainbridgekid]

High-res NAM nailed the thin CZ along US-2 this evening.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

High-res NAM nailed the thin CZ along US-2 this evening.

It did well this time, that’s for sure.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High-res NAM nailed the thin CZ along US-2 this evening.

I got screwed today, heavier showers popped up in Redmond and then just north of downtown Bothell. Cars were driving by with piles of graupel. Been getting unlucky for a while now.

[smerfylicious]

20 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Startup on Route 2 being buried by the convergence zone.

Getting buried on my webcam too. Looks like about 1.5-2". I'm not there to measure, but it seems about right. Okay fine, C- for this winter.

[MossMan]

Starting to snow. 

[Snownerd3000]

my little hail storm seems so insignificant when seeing this video.

 

[Brennan]

The 0z GFS showed over a foot of snow for coastal Georgia and South Carolina week 2…. That would be absolutely insane. 

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, Brennan said:

The 0z GFS showed over a foot of snow for coastal Georgia and South Carolina week 2…. That would be absolutely insane. 

Lol wtf Druncle doing Druncle things.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Lol wtf Druncle doing Druncle things.

Looks like Columbia, SC is going to be near 80 tomorrow

[Christensen87]

Snow is back for the Sound on the 06z. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 06z gfs is absolutely nuts for snow in parts of Puget sound and especially out around the canal over the next 5 days.  2 feet out this way lol. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This could be a historic period of snowfall out here for this time of year.

We are under an advisory, it says 1-4 but forecast for area is 1-8 through Saturday. 

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[MossMan]

The Euro blew it for me up here. The 6-8” turned out to be 0” 

Looks like I am done with any snowfall for this season. It was a good run though. 

[GHweatherChris]

Snowing here.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Euro blew it for me up here. The 6-8” turned out to be 0” 

Looks like I am done with any snowfall for this season. It was a good run though. 

ECMWF had the general position of the precip this morning right... but just a little too far north for you.  

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This could be a historic period of snowfall out here for this time of year.

We are under an advisory, it says 1-4 but forecast for area is 1-8 through Saturday. 

 

Here is the 06Z ECMWF for next 90 hours...

[Christensen87]

44 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 06z gfs is absolutely nuts for snow in parts of Puget sound and especially out around the canal over the next 5 days.  2 feet out this way lol. 

Will the 12z double down? Or taketh away. We shall see…

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF had the general position of the precip this morning right... but just a little too far north for you.  

The Euro is now dead to me. I am now team JMA! 

[ShawniganLake]

We had flurries overnight. Not much accumulated, just a coating of white. 

[FrozenBites]

Snow on S.R. 410 from Bonney Lake to Enumclaw. Tiny accumulated snow on grass.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

The Euro blew it for me up here. The 6-8” turned out to be 0” 

Looks like I am done with any snowfall for this season. It was a good run though. 

Did it rain or was it dry?  Doesn’t really look like a c zone that you typically score from.  More like upslope enhancement of a showery airmass coming through the strait. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Did it rain or was it dry?  Doesn’t really look like a c zone that you typically score from.  More like upslope enhancement of a showery airmass coming through the strait. 

Lack of moisture, I did have a slight accumulation of slush on the deck from overnight and a temp down to 33 but most of the moisture stayed just to the north of me. 

[umadbro]

32 with a ZR shower. Love chiseling ice off my truck for no reason. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Lack of moisture, I did have a slight accumulation of slush on the deck from overnight and a temp down to 33 but most of the moisture stayed just to the north of me. 

It is snowing pretty hard on I-5 between Bellingham and Mt Vernon.    Placement of c-zone is just a little too far north.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Woke up to snow falling and 31 degrees. Looks like a winter weather advisory tomorrow. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

In the Carolinas...

Columbia SC current weather:  69 dp 61

Heading for a high of 80 with a chance of Severe Thunderstorms this evening

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 06Z ECMWF for next 90 hours...

Looks like 5-6” here. Not bad. The Tuesday- Friday period now showing some potential. Then milder rains perhaps. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON still showing lots of snow for the Hood Canal area tonight and tomorrow morning.      

It shows a decent amount of precip on the other side of the Sound as well but keeps temps in the mid to upper 30s all night.

[Timmy]

Some mixed precip this morning and black ice. ODOT was nice enough to forego deicer and put down gravel on the roads…

[TT-SEA]

Another aspect to consider over the next 24 hours is that the upper levels warm up a little bit from where it is this morning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is snowing pretty hard on I-5 between Bellingham and Mt Vernon.    Placement of c-zone is just a little too far north.  

Yet nothing on the ground in Bellingham. The Chuckanut Mountains are a total snow zone, even below 1,000 feet. Seen this pattern many times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice view for morning coffee. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another aspect to consider over the next 24 hours is that the upper levels warm up a little bit from where it is this morning.

Shows the cold pool out here good