January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We still going to have a night shift tonight with the models back-pedaling?

[Requiem]

We still going to have a night shift tonight with the models back-pedaling?

 

The models are going to backpedal, remember how much they were backpedaling yesterday and day before? They don't really even have a grasp on the situation yet. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just kind of interesting to see a dry SW wind. Normally the dry winds are E or NE depending on where you are and the wet winds are SW.

Yeah, the East winds have been prevelant out here on the east side for a while now. It'll be good to get something different.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We still going to have a night shift tonight with the models back-pedaling?

The models are going to backpedal, remember how much they were backpedaling yesterday and day before? They don't really even have a grasp on the situation yet.

I'll be working night shift tonight.

 

Yeah, still a long ways out. I'm curious to see what the 00z EPS ensembles show.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Evening GFS ensembles didn't really look all that different from the Druncle. No obvious signal for goodies but would be a coolish/seasonal pattern with valley rain and mtn snow (this will be the most likely outcome). Hopefully we can beat the odds.

[ShawniganLake]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Undercut

 

Gonna need some beer and bud tonight 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS not good. This would truly be a waste of a nice block and kona low. Still several days to go to resolve this pattern and see how this plays out.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 18 minutes

[GHweatherChris]

Models showed exactly what they should tonight...

[Timmy Supercell]

Just ended up with a trace all day. A bunch of moisture has been skipping by. 

[Requiem]

I'm not concerned, this is a while out. At least models are showing something interesting.

[El_Nina]

The clouds are moving in all directions and spinning around.

[Bryant]

The s**t show continues

 

Can we deduct this winter (thus far) on our taxes?

At this point it could be months before we get our returns lol

[Timmy]

At this point it could be months before we get our returns lol

What’s a return?

[Requiem]

06Z is quite good!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

06Z is quite good!

 

Yeah, the 06z GFS delivers an Arctic Blast for the PNW. Timing moved up too. Very good run!

 

[Timmy]

06z gets there

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, the 06z GFS delivers an Arctic Blast for the PNW. Timing moved up too. Very good run!

 

Ya. 6z delivers arctic blast, but since the pattern/block evolves at Day 7 and the blast moves south into southern BC at Day 10 we can only speculate. Hoping the ensembles improve.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow night shift delivers bigly!!!!

[Timmy]

Gefs basically agrees.

[MossMan]

6z ensembles not as quite as good however.

[ShawniganLake]

FV3 is not even close to being good

[Esquimalt]

06Z op was a cool outlier unfortunately. Hoping for some good 12Z runs

[TT-SEA]

FV3 is not even close to being good

Best sign yet!

 

After 3 months of the most incredible runs ever created... the FV3 has delivered absolutely nothing. Maybe the best thing is for it to look like garbage now.

[Jesse]

Clear and frosty in Port Townsend this morning. 30F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cool cloudy morning. 33. 

[Jesse]

At least this MLK day is looking seasonably chilly.

 

#mattwasjustayearoff

[Esquimalt]

12Z GFS has better kona low placement (further southwest than previous runs) yet the block merger doesn't look to be nearly as good.  Im not sure of the outcome yet, but hoping for the best. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has better kona low placement (further southwest than previous runs) yet the block merger doesn't look to be nearly as good.  Im not sure of the outcome yet, but hoping for the best. 

 

 

Maybe a nice mountain snow pattern?

[Esquimalt]

Blast at the end of the run.  Wish the timing would move up though.  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS gets really close. 

[ShawniganLake]

12z GFS gets really close.

Cool NW flow transitioning to northerly flow. Need the block to tilt a bit for a blast.

[umadbro]

12z GFS gets really close.

I wish I had a dollar for every time this was posted.

[Esquimalt]

Cool NW flow transitioning to northerly flow. Need the block to tilt a bit for a blast.

That would be a -PNA pattern right? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blast at the end of the run.  Wish the timing would move up though.  

 

There is opportunity around the 1st. 

[Phil]

There is an opportunity for a blast still, and there is precedent for it, given these two factors:

 

1) Equatorward propagation of AAM consistent with blocking.

 

2) Subseasonal wave thru the IPWP while the pre-niño forcing is developing just west of the dateline (can favorably prime the NPAC surf zone).

 

While it doesn’t look like a prolonged window, and there’s a growing cold signal in E/NE Canada and US as time moves forward, there could easily be a hiatus in that pattern given the aforementioned factors.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 does not look like it will be good. 

[Esquimalt]

Ensembles much improved!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ensembles much improved!

 

 

[Bryant]

If one were to only read the forums, and not check the models, you'd think an arctic airmass is locked in lol