kokaneekidz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I love the measured tone comingout of the NOAA Seattle office. Way not to jinx it. Great work guys, they deserve a midwinter bonus for steady as she goes work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Tim, get him! Dewey, get anyone who gets Tim for getting him!! I don't even know what he is talking about. But when the chips are down... everyone loves having the ECMWF on board above all else. Wonder why? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z FV3 doubling down on it's solution by showing more widespread, heavier snowfall versus it's 12z counterpart. Although Flatiron will be quick to point out that this map doesn't mean much so please take a moment to read the below disclaimer: The below map is not indicative of what will actually happen, nor does it indicate the likelihood of said snowfall occurring. This is a fairly low resolution snowfall map being posted in a time of model uncertainty at 5 days out. The FV3 takes no responsibility for the content of this map and must not take the brunt of the fall if the solution does not pan out. The FV3 tries it's best, and that should account for something. LOL Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 I love the measured tone comingout of the NOAA Seattle office. Way not to jinx it. Great work guys, they deserve a midwinter bonus for steady as she goes work They could probably use a midwinter bonus considering they just went full operational again yesterday after a month+ hiatus. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Didn’t the euro eff up a super bowl forecast recently ? It showed a foot of isothermal slop for the Portland area on Super Bowl Sunday 2017. That wound up over Astoria and Olympia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 You can almost smell the disappointment of tonight model runs already....Reverse phycology? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 18z FV3 doubling down on it's solution by showing more widespread, heavier snowfall versus it's 12z counterpart. Although Flatiron will be quick to point out that this map doesn't mean much so please take a moment to read the below disclaimer: The below map is not indicative of what will actually happen, nor does it indicate the likelihood of said snowfall occurring. This is a fairly low resolution snowfall map being posted in a time of model uncertainty at 5 days out. The FV3 takes no responsibility for the content of this map and must not take the brunt of the fall if the solution does not pan out. The FV3 tries it's best, and should be given credit for being slightly better than every other model not named the Euro. There we go! Fixed the last part for you. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It showed a foot of isothermal slop for the Portland area on Super Bowl Sunday 2017. That wound up over Astoria and Olympia. Any other winter that would have been a kick in the teeth, but I think 1/10/17 made up for that in great sport. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies. A similar setup to last February? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 A similar setup to last February?I don't believe so. I'd have to look at the 500mb maps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Any other winter that would have been a kick in the teeth, but I think 1/10/17 made up for that in great sport. Yeah, it was pretty forgivable as far as model busts go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah, it was pretty forgivable as far as model busts go. Honestly I had serious doubts about that one from the get-go, seemed too good to be true after the January events. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies.The prospect of a frontloaded winter continues to fade. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The prospect of a frontloaded winter continues to fade.It’s only January 29th. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Honestly I had serious doubts about that one from the get-go, seemed too good to be true after the January events. Even the central and s valley had already scored bigly by that point in 16-17. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Cautiously optimistic. I want to see 00z runs tonight continue the trend if not improve further and solid agreement the next 2 days through 00z Thursday. 00z GFS in 3 hours 42 minutesWe shall be on edge until the very first snowflake falls and verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 We shall be on edge until the very first snowflake falls and verifies You’ve got your first special snowflake right here 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So what’s the over/under at this point? A foot? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So what’s the over/under at this point? A foot?A half inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 That is so unlikely in this case... why are you being so negative?Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens! I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen. Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period. We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event. This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet. If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway. We aren't even close to likely on this one yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 2 days almost never happens! I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen. Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period. We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event. This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet. If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway. We aren't even close to likely on this one yet. The trends have been all good as we move within 5 days now. I can't really imagine the ECMWF changing course at this point... it seems locked in on a solution and its not marginal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The trends have been all good as we move within 5 days now. I can't really imagine the ECMWF changing course at this point... it seems locked in on a solution and its not marginal. Yeah, it's probably not going to happen on one run but the flip can surely make an obvious start tonight and put everyone in a state of Catatonia or California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1-29-19 5:00 PM [Model Countdown]Next up....00z NAM in 41 minutes (5:41 PM) NAM was added as we can get an idea of how the block is evolving at Day 3.5 where the run ends at. Later this evening....00z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes (7:27 PM)00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 50 minutes (7:50 PM)00z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes (9:45 PM) Think Cold and SNOW!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So glad we finally have something worth tracking. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens! I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen. Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period. We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event. This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet. If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway. We aren't even close to likely on this one yet.Perhaps you don't actually look at the models and just base your opinions off the posts on here, but there is quite good model agreement right now. When it comes to the large scale pattern, every model seems to have a decent handle through the mid range. Given our traditionally borderline climate, this event being no different, it doesn't take large scale differences to create a "bust" in the eyes of a weenie. To suggest that A. the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days and B. there isn't decent agreement right now is just dumb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens! I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen. Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period. We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event. This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet. If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway. We aren't even close to likely on this one yet. I think it's been pretty rare for the good stuff to be modeled within 5 days and not happen at all in recent years. Especially the Euro. Watered down some, sure, but complete flips are really rare in the 3-5 day range. It's much more common in the 7-10 day range, where model accuracy falls off a cliff. Even in 2011, when the GFS was still showing (with some runs) the goods 3-4 days out, I don't believe the Euro was onboard. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run. Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run. Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new? Good luck getting a concrete answer. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run. Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new?Not enough of a sample size yet. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2019 I only added the sections that pertain to us. * Bold for highlighted areas.TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND AN **AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO MUCH OF ALASKA.* DOWNSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.** ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR LARGE PARTS OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, UNDER NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, *30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8*, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 A half inch.Sold! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The Canuck mets are on board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 So what’s the over/under at this point? A foot?9" above 326.5 feet. That will be the snow level according to the superior FV3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Perhaps you don't actually look at the models and just base your opinions off the posts on here, but there is quite good model agreement right now. When it comes to the large scale pattern, every model seems to have a decent handle through the mid range. Given our traditionally borderline climate, this event being no different, it doesn't take large scale differences to create a "bust" in the eyes of a weenie. To suggest that A. the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days and B. there isn't decent agreement right now is just dumb.To say that the models are not statistically more likely to be less accurate outside 3 days is even dumber. The models are never going to be totally right at any time. Outside 3 days they are statistically less likely to be right than inside 3 days. I never said that the models were not in decent agreement right now, I said not all the major models are in agreement. To some, 2 out 3 ain't bad but to me it ain't real good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 To say that the models are not statistically more likely to be less accurate outside 3 days is even dumber. The models are never going to be totally right at any time. Outside 3 days they are statistically less likely to be right than inside 3 days. I never said that the models were not in decent agreement right now, I said not all the major models are in agreement. To some, 2 out 3 ain't bad but to me it ain't real good. Is that what I said? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 HUGE runs tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I created an image collage to show just how much colder for Monday onward the FV3 has trended since the 00z run last night. 20 degrees colder for Monday and Wednesday.27 degrees colder for Tuesday.16 degrees colder for Thursday. I mean, wow. Quite the change.Wow, yeah. Nice job on this. It is appreciated. 6z GFS in 7 hours 48 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Told you guys the models wouldn’t figure this out until this Tuesday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 She's a beaut. That is a thing of beauty! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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