Jaycee Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well the models are still good, but I dont like how the clipper dumps snow north of us then it re phases just south. eastern Nebraska is just in a weird transition zone. Hoping it can just get its act together a few hours earlier.Omg I remember when that would happen out there haha it’s sooo frustrating. We’re not even in the NAM zone yet, so plenty of time for change! Doubt that the areas outlined with the heavy snow axis will hols true to when it’s on shore, let alone when it’s actually snowing. I think this is a SE NE/NE MO/N IL special in the works. Just gotta have it phase a tad quicker and we’re all in business. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link: https://www.ventusky.com 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link: https://www.ventusky.comDude this is awesome, thanks for sharing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anybody have the QPF total maps from the UMMET? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anybody have the QPF total maps from the UMMET? Not bad. That would be about 6-9 inches considering how cold it would be. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro Ensembles, seem north of the op 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I definitely wouldn’t want to be on the northern Edge. The euro did a good job last time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Dont be needing that northern stream to be goin anymore south now. Gettin close to that sharp cutoff again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 See my post above. Three days before the last storm, the Euro had me getting no snow. I got 12 inches. There wasn’t a 1045mb high screaming in from the NW during the last storm. Dry arctic air is going to eat away at the snow on the northern fringe. Northern edge is not where you want to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lower Michigan is a snow repellent this year. Expect this to skirt the state line. Followed by NE flow and miss LES all together lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Might be talking about the wrong storm....... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Also! Not sure if anybody has ever used this website, but I use it sometimes, especially for temp and wind as it’s so precise. It gives the updates on the GEM, GFS, and ICON. Here’s the link: https://www.ventusky.comGreat site Thanks for posting. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Agreed. Has to come thru SWMI first tho.. 15/0z Euro. That has to bliz or near for MO into IL Jaster ma man, this has potential to be a bigly one. My forecast looks awesome. Ample cold air along w it. FWIW: I think the storm next week will be even stronger. My forecast looks scary. Man...and the arctic air that follows after both storms is brutal. I am below zero Sunday and the following week as well. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nam is better but yeah need to watch the next system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 From LOT this afternoon:Owing to the complex nature of this setup, the GEFS and EPSensemble suites were more stable and if anything trendedwetter/slightly north in the means. Main message about the winterstorm does not change. Despite the long lead, the ensembles are inexcellent agreement in the entire area being in line foraccumulating snow, with moisture availability/PWATs certainlycapable of producing a swath of 6"+ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 This sucker could be a big one but right now it’s looking like a turd 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Perfect track for snow for a lot of Nebraska, it just has to slow down a tad. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The GFS has been consistent the past 3 or 4 runs in showing a nice hole in the snow directly over Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. Heavy snow north, south, east, and west. Glad we're still 84 hours out. It's gotta be wrong, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 From LOT this afternoon:Owing to the complex nature of this setup, the GEFS and EPSensemble suites were more stable and if anything trendedwetter/slightly north in the means. Main message about the winterstorm does not change. Despite the long lead, the ensembles are inexcellent agreement in the entire area being in line foraccumulating snow, with moisture availability/PWATs certainlycapable of producing a swath of 6"+Very nice write-up on how complex this storm really is and the chances of it becoming a pretty big deal. Ensembles as he mentioned have stayed the course and have become wetter as well so we cannot just rely on the operational modeling. This storm is far from being a dud. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 The ECMWF buries Chicago next wk w the 2nd big dog......WHOAAAAA 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 is a much better hit for E Iowa than the regular GFS. Even on the 10:1 map it's got 4-6+". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z GEFS looking a much better 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Some good trends up this way. CMC/GFS all with 4+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wow local forecasters are actually going high with the amounts. Probably an omen lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fv3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Definitely an omen, Frankie just posted about a "blizzard" here. I actually like the guy but he is a curse for snow. Sigh 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z GEFS looking a much betterYep...came more north. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yep...came more north. Like a mile, but north nonetheless. I'll take it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Craig's call of 12-18" last night ain't looking too good 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Some good trends up this way. CMC/GFS all with 4+Some models show you getting more snow than others that are expecting a big dog. Still tons to be figured out with this system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 TWC: Higher confidence:A swath from the Plains to the lower Midwest to the interior Northeast and New England may pick up heavy snowfall.The highest probability of heavy snow currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England this weekend. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Like a mile, but north nonetheless. I'll take it.Every bit counts amigo!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Craig's call of 12-18" last night ain't looking too good way too early to make that call 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 way too early to make that call It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Every model is showing that initial band of snow streaking out of SD through northern Iowa. Locations that get stuck just south of that band may be the screw hole. That dry hole has shown up on some of the models several runs in a row. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that. what’s his page? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 what’s his page? Like "Snow Day" on Facebook or something like that. It's linked in his signature. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Some models show you getting more snow than others that are expecting a big dog. Still tons to be figured out with this system.Yeah seems like that band is starting to creep more and more north. Gem has had it over my area last few days and gfs keeps lifting it farther north as well now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's stuff like that which make actual meteorologists warn the public against listening to all these weather pages on Facebook and Twitter. Come on Craig, you gotta be more responsible than that.Yes and no. I am not a meteorologist but my old man is and he has never had an issue with it. Plus I am not a fan of meteorologist slamming people for sharing information that you can find in a blink of an eye. Personal opinion though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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