East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not a terrible run by any means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Here was the 18z Euro...just getting going for WI/IL at the end of this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012500&fh=102&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Honestly can’t ask for a better spread the wealth storm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice north/south buffer room on that GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice to see the models keeping this system a fairly widespread snow producer and not weakening as it heads S/SE...it just makes sense to me to have such a strong system which will ultimately pull down the vortex over the GL's. This season, we have seen a few well-timed events/systems and I think this one will be one of those memorable moments of our winter season, esp those who score from this system and then the wicked cold to follow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gfs at 8 pm Tuesday with temps in the -30 range in msp alresdy http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019012500&fh=120&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Wind chill of -60 in Chicago Wed morning http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&rh=2019012500&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z GFS...total qpf seems juiced...ratios are close to 15-20:1 in some places.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Wind chills of -60 for over 6 hours? I’ll run outside naked if that actually happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gem https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019012500&fh=84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z GGEM is strong and juiced...nice hit for many peeps on here... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gem has -40 for actual lows Hahahahaha https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019012500&fh=120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice uptick on the GFS. 12z GEM Kuchera gave me 19" by next Wed morning. Not a fan of inflation via Kuchera maps as cold temps usually proves to yield pixie dust flakes, but it'd be fun to get slammed whatever the amount ends up being. Is there any wind component coming with this? SLP isn't crazy strong. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z GGEM is strong and juiced...nice hit for many peeps on here... Thinking GEM's a bit over-done and will calm down as we get inside 48 hrs. Would be quite the coup if it led the way with this one. It's been pretty steady, hafta give it that Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Here in C.IA closer to where the low is lorecasted to be thermals are going to be huge. I have a feeling the CMC and GFS are too warm aloft. The Euro is not even close to those temps, but is now 12 hours old. It looks like a good hit NE of here.... when I did i hear that again? In seriousness. this should do much better NE than the previous system. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Thinking GEM's a bit over-done and will calm down as we get inside 48 hrs. Would be quite the coup if it led the way with this one. It's been pretty steady, hafta give it thatGEM is almost always overdone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 It appears the UKIE is S of the GFS at Hr 72-- much further S at HR 96 in Indiana rather than SW MI and quite a bit weaker, which is typical. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro appears quite a bit further S at HR 72. Faster? (than GFS and slightly even its own 12Z run) -- Arctic High North of Superior appears to have more influence than GFS--- still a good solid hit for many and quite similar to other guidance. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro appears quite a bit further S at HR 72. Faster? (than GFS and slightly even its own 12Z run) -- Arctic High North of Superior appears to have more influence than GFS--- still a good solid hit for many and quite similar to other guidance. Ended up coming in north and slightly wetter. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just about every model hits Iowa city and CR hard but the heaviest is to the north and east. Definitely riding the southern edge here. I’d like to see Kuchera on the Euro. CR is right on The .6” qpf line. At 15:1 that’s 9”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just about every model hits Iowa city and CR hard but the heaviest is to the north and east. Definitely riding the southern edge here. I’d like to see Kuchera on the Euro. CR is right on The .6” qpf line. At 15:1 that’s 9”. I'd wager it looks a lot like the Canadian. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Southern MN into Wisconsin and most of Michigan with a good hit on gfs. I’m throwing the towel in here but good luck to all and stay warm! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM/Icon/GFS all pretty similar the last few runs. Euro was as well When does this get sampled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z Euro snowfall... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z EPS coming in juiced and quite a large area with substantial snowfall. This is trending to be one of the more potent hybrid clippers I've tracked in recent memory. FWIW, 06z GEFS look very similar to the EPS qpf mean.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 00z/06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 DVN just put me down for 6” Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 This will be a very cold snowstorm w very high snow ratios, so accumulations will be very impressive. It is now starting to grab my attn. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM/Icon/GFS all pretty similar the last few runs. Euro was as well When does this get sampled? Full sample sunday morning 12z. Though its not far off the coast of alaska now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 DMX goin with 6+ thru my area. No mention of ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 MPX must be convinced this thing is going south. They say 3” in the I-94 corridor and around 6” by I-90. The point has snow Sunday evening with little or no snow accumulation. I’m confused. Maybe their brains are frozen already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM is north of north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 DMX goin with 6+ thru my area. No mention of ratios.DVN says average ratios of 15:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The NAM and GFS are much further north on the southern edge than the Euro, Canadian, and UK. Pretty big spread still in model solutions. 12z NAM is clipping only the far NE corner of Iowa with appreciable snow, while the UK and Euro have heavy snow well south of I80. That's a good 150-200 mile difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Super hard cut on the 12z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The NAM and GFS are much further north on the southern edge than the Euro, Canadian, and UK. Pretty big spread still in model solutions. 12z NAM is clipping only the far NE corner of Iowa with appreciable snow, while the UK and Euro have heavy snow well south of I80. That's a good 150-200 mile difference.The models were bound to break apart at some point. They had been fairly consistent with each other for a while there, and we all know that’s not allowed to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM is 6mb stronger at 6am on Monday compared to the 00z Euro. NAM really doesn’t have the SLP weakening as it heads south into Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Thermal issues into the southern chitown burbs that run. Not sure I buy it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I might have to chase... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Surprised how far north this is moving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Surprised how far north this is moving.The WAA advection from the west is strong lifting the baro zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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