Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[gosaints]

True. But I guarantee you if there are any major changes on the 18z runs there will be twice as many people in here talking it up.

for sure

[gosaints]

3km nam similar in track but different in sensible weather a bit.

[East Dubzz]

Yup. Just like if euro showed a big hit for IL/IA a map would have been posted immiedatley

Well, I was going to post it right away, but I ended up getting busy before the snow map was fully loaded, and then I forgot.

 

But yeah, we have a lot of members in Iowa and Wisconsin further south. Of course it’s going to be more active when the storm more directly impacts more of us haha

[Money]

Well, I was going to post it right away, but I ended up getting busy before the snow map was fully loaded, and then I forgot.

But yeah, we have a lot of members in Iowa and Wisconsin further south. Of course it’s going to be more active when the storm more directly impacts more of us haha

Not a dig at you really. Youre one of the few posters from IA sticking it out lol

[East Dubzz]

Not a dig at you really. Youre one of the few posters from IA sticking it out lol

For sure. Helps that I have a better shot at higher amount than my fellow Iowans. For whatever reason, we have a good amount of posters from Cedar Rapids and Iowa city.

 

But after how bad the last few winters have sucked, I’m all down for 3-6” storms. That’s what my area thrives on most good winters.

[Money]

GB is upgrading the watch to a warning already

 

Dont usually see them upgrading 36+ hours away

[james1976]

North north north north north north

[BMT]

I haven’t lost hope. I’m ready for the south shift to start tonight with the 0z runs. ;-)

[dubuque473]

I am going with the full 5” here. Lock it in!

[Madtown]

still looks ok for Madison from what I'm seeing?

[East Dubzz]

still looks ok for Madison from what I'm seeing?

Yup.

[East Dubzz]

DVN sticking with 4-6” for my area. I’m okay with that forecast. I’d personally go with 3-6”, as I feel there’s definitely the potential to have less than 4”.

[jaster220]

My office is telling IWX to ignore GFS/GEM let alone Euro. They be huggin that NAM for all it's worth. This GRR forecaster (04) we seem to get every time there's a storm on a weekend which has been like every major since '14. He's the dude that issued a WWA for 10" during the Feb 2nd 2015 big dog.

 

IWX pm update

 

 

LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Some solidification in deterministic low track per 12Z guidance and
not surprising per reduction in ensemble based track variance.
However wave of interest is just now overtopping wrn ridge in nrn BC
and expect some additional fluctuations likely as implied in yet
still concerning individual srn tilted ensemble members and large
std deviations centered through nrn IN. Nevertheless gist of prior
discussions still hold with mixed ptype concern south of sfc cyclone
track and serves as a proxy for srn bound of heavy snow. Details
relegated to potential snow amounts still muddled stemming from nrn
extent of leading warm nose, associated influence of mixed precip
zone, intensity of swd trailing frontal precip band and srn extent
of leading warm advection wing. Consensus solution lines up well
with internal WPC offered snowfall guidance which targets srn/cntrl
lower MI. This further meshes well with centroid EC/GEFS super
ensemble guidance and affords some probability signaling (50%) for
winter storm watch criteria based off an expectation of 6"+ snow
especially with lake enhancement contribution Mon evening. However
nrn neighbors reluctant to issue that far south so will hold in
light of remaining uncertainty.

[badgerwx]

Winter Storm Warning!

[St Paul Storm]

Yep LaCrosse pulled the warning trigger. Borderline warning criteria here if the low end of the models verify. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upgrade to a warning due to the snow and wind.

[badgerwx]

Calling for 6 to 10 inches here in far SW Wisco

[St Paul Storm]

Point upped to 5-10” through Sunday night with snow still falling early Monday.

[FV-Mike]

LOT going with 3-6 from I-80 north. seems like the morning commute could be a mess

[shakjen]

I would take this

 

[St Paul Storm]

MPX about to upgrade all but SW portions of MN.

[East Dubzz]

Winter storm warning here. Little surprised by them pulling the trigger that quick, especially when it doesn’t totally meet warning criteria.

[Money]

WSW for 7-13 here

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS looks pretty similar as the previous run through 36.

[Money]

18z gfs coming in South and slower

[VMB443]

WSW 7-12” - three warnings in a week and a half - very nice!

[St Paul Storm]

Ends up in the same spot, same mb at hr 42. Lock it in.

[East Dubzz]

Ends up in the same spot, same mb at hr 42. Lock it in.

It’s slightly further south, but not enough to really change much.

[Niko]

Does NOT include my area tho. That office will side with whatever is worst model for down here. We got a 3-5" storm the other night with ZERO headlines!

Yup..that makes no sense to me. I am in the 5-8inch snowfall range and NOAA saids that they will wait n hold off a bit on the watch.

[Niko]

I haven’t lost hope. I’m ready for the south shift to start tonight with the 0z runs. ;-)

 

It could also be a lock. Dont forget, as time passes, models will all begin to come to a close agreement. I like your optimism tho.

[Money]

18z gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012618&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

Still showing 14-16 amounts

[james1976]

Winter Storm Warning for here! Cant believe it. Im right on the edge though. DMX going with 3-5" plus a light glaze of ice and wind gusts up to 40mph

[Bellona]

Winter Storm Warning for here! Cant believe it. Im right on the edge though. DMX going with 3-5" plus a light glaze of ice and wind gusts up to 40mph

We have rode the edge all winter, here we go again!

[St Paul Storm]

MPX says 6-9” should be easily attainable, with more possible. Temps -20 to -30F post storm with wind chills possibly hitting -60F in C MN. Man oh man. Winter about to strike hard.

[Hawkeye]

Oddly, the DVN's forecast for Sunday night simply says low around 12.  All the models are surging the temp into the 30s across Iowa overnight Sunday night.  You'd think the nws would mention that.

[Beltrami Island]

Watching the trend of the models for this storm it wouldn't surprise me for each model run to continue creeping north.

Im guessing many here probably don't watch the trends when clipper like systems are forecast to move across central Canada because they are so far from being potential snow producers for most here.

The trend north hasn't surprised me it's pretty common I have found.

Now that I said that it will probably trend back south...

[Tom]

MPX says 6-9” should be easily attainable, with more possible. Temps -20 to -30F post storm with wind chills possibly hitting -60F in C MN. Man oh man. Winter about to strike hard.

The snow Gods have answered my prayers for you! Hope you score at least 6” and build up that snow pack.

[WBadgersW]

 

MKX going all in with 12-18" here. 18" might be hard to achieve.

[Madtown]

giddie up!

[gimmesnow]

IMG_20190126_171602.jpg

 

MKX going all in with 12-18" here. 18" might be hard to achieve.

 

Nice, "Avoid travel" always means drive to Alpine Valley and have fun! I'm under a warning now too, 7 to 12!

[Stacsh]

First Clipper moving through now. Lake Enhaced snow at it’s finest. Quarter size flakes outside. 2 inches an hour easy. Winter!