February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

 

As an aside, this kind of gradient should be conducive to some fantastic monster storms, however we've gotten these little W to E sliders instead. The pattern just isn't taking advantage of the ingredients available imho. A sad footnote to what coulda/woulda/shoulda been a much more impressive winter. In the end, I doubt anybody will rate this winter as "stellar" due to many long periods of dull (both ends of the sub), frequent torches, and lack of monster systems that seemed likely going into the winter. 

[Tom]

I'm respectfully taking the "other" and calling meaningful winter here over. The pattern for Chicago and points N and W is still in play however, so those in your post above can keep hopes alive for decent to good month.

 

The pattern for mby and points east has been thus: 

 

We watch for 2-3 wks as storms cut west of us building a snow pack. The cold finally builds in enough to include SMI in the snow action with the final system, just prior to pushing the "reset button" via torching. While we're not completely shut-out over here, our days with decent winter snow conditions are very fleeting. Their demise is already forecast by the time real winter hits us. There's reports of Robins in Indiana already. Spring's not far behind. This morning's sky resembled April more than Feb. Just sayin, if this winter should decide to fall on it's sword, I wouldn't be disappointed in the least.  

I would say your neck of the woods is still in the cards over the next 2 weeks to get hit by some snow.  The pattern looks even more favorable once we enter the 2nd half of the month so I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.  Lot's of winter still on the table for our region.  FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised if some members in our regino achieve similar snow stats this month as compared to Jan.  Big month coming up, hope we all can share in the wealth.  

 

After the Jan '19 Snow Blitz, ORD is AN in the snow dept (right around 33" I believe)...

[Tom]

 

As an aside, this kind of gradient should be conducive to some fantastic monster storms, however we've gotten these little W to E sliders instead. The pattern just isn't taking advantage of the ingredients available imho. A sad footnote to what coulda/woulda/shoulda been a much more impressive winter. In the end, I doubt anybody will rate this winter as "stellar" due to many long periods of dull (both ends of the sub), frequent torches, and lack of monster systems that seemed likely going into the winter. 

Interestingly, after the Polar Vortex invasion last week, Chicago has sky rocketed into the Severe category according to Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Man, temps dropped quick after that cold front swung through. Got up to 43 at around 5 this morning, but temps crashed from 41 to 33 between 9am & 10am. Currently sitting at 32 degrees.

[james1976]

Man, temps dropped quick after that cold front swung through. Got up to 43 at around 5 this morning, but temps crashed from 41 to 33 between 9am & 10am. Currently sitting at 32 degrees.

No doubt. 19 here with mood flurries and windy.

[Tony]

Nasty week of weather coming up and not snow either. Maybe next week will bring us back our snowpack

[FV-Mike]

Skilling has a similar thought as Tom on the upcoming pattern. Hi update is below. 

 

The big takeaway from an examination of a suite of numerical forecasts is that we're moving into a "supercharged" pattern in terms of storm production. I count at least 5-precipitation systems coming across in the coming two weeks
Driving the pattern is the retrogression--in other words, a westward shift--in a vast pool of cold air to our north and west. It's setting up across central and western Canada into the Plains and western U.S. A powerful southwest upper flow (jet stream), transporting a series of embedded storm systems, is to occur on this cold air's southern flank. We'll bob back and forth between cool and milder air this work week--with a trend toward a moderately colder overall temp regime next week.
Here's the potential rub. We're positioned dangerously close to the rain/snow demarcation in the precip-bearing systems expected to impact. This means forecasters will be monitoring the form the precipitation will take here with each of these systems like hawks.
Today's precip will be rain. But a wintry mix threatens Tuesday night, according current indictions; rain later this week late Wed night and Thursday; snow Sunday and perhaps again next Monday night and Tuesday. The potential for any of these systems to follow a track placing us closer to snow is real and will be have to be watched closely.

[Niko]

@ Niko, I just read that Chicago missed tying the record (18) straight days of at least a trace of snow and ended with 16 straight days.  Nonetheless, it was a memorable stretch in late January.

Awesome.......still, that was a great stretch of wintry weather.

[Niko]

Thanks friend. Ended up having a great time and came home in one piece. Always a plus considering they are constantly hauling injured peeps off the slopes in this recreational endeavor. First time out this winter and it was just the way I prefer it in my young age -warm! 

 

My first time I skied I was a 14 yr old kid in Jan of '79. In NWMI at that time there was 50" of natural snow! I thought I'd arrived in winter heaven and immediately loved the sport. Now, with my daughter along I celebrated my 40th year of hitting the slopes with only one serious injury (my own fault btw) and a ton of great memories. One thing that made it feel like a deja-vu time warp is that Michigan ski resorts still play the same classic rock tunes that were popular 4 decades ago. It's a crazy thing that even I don't understand since I regularly listen to newer music, lol. Who says you hafta grow up? Just get to the slopes, slap your skiis on and presto! 

Glad you had a great time. I should take up skiing also. I'd probably end up hitting a tree or something

[Niko]

Looks like ice to rain in the forecast for SEMI. Perhaps more rain thankfully, since I hate ice. Broke a record yesterday of 56F. Felt amazing. Snowpack is literally gone, except for a few snow piles. Hopefully, Ma Nature will bring back its Winter fury next week and rebuild the Winter wonderland that we once had.

[Andie]

Hit 81* today shy of the 82* record.

Registered 84 at my house however.

 

Turned a/c on and wouldn’t you know it..... a/c and heat pump coughed up a lung. Must be replaced.

 

It’ll be Beanie-Weenies for awhile. D@#& !

[Beltrami Island]

 

As an aside, this kind of gradient should be conducive to some fantastic monster storms, however we've gotten these little W to E sliders instead. The pattern just isn't taking advantage of the ingredients available imho. A sad footnote to what coulda/woulda/shoulda been a much more impressive winter. In the end, I doubt anybody will rate this winter as "stellar" due to many long periods of dull (both ends of the sub), frequent torches, and lack of monster systems that seemed likely going into the winter.

Agree with you about the west to east sliders as you put it. Until storms start cutting SW to NE nothing truly memorable is going to happen for anyone.

[Andie]

68*. Beautiful clear evening. Light breeze.

 

 

DON’T WORRY SPRING’S ALMOST HERE !!

[Clinton]

The models beginning to show a system on Sunday in the central plains.  Hope a few of us can some accumulation out of this.

[Tom]

The models beginning to show a system on Sunday in the central plains.  Hope a few of us can some accumulation out of this.

 

Ya, the models seem to be agreeing that a wave develops across the MW region as a west/east flow develops late weekend into next week.  I'm starting to feel more optimistic about seeing more snow chances starting this weekend around here and esp into next week.

[Tom]

I'm getting pretty fired up about this month producing big snows and it starts this week up north, then bleeding farther south as things progress.  and targeting those across the "heartland" of the nation.  I'll try to put together my thoughts when I get back from the gym.  Giddy up!

[westMJim]

After supper thaw 2019 here at my house I now am down to just 3" of snow on the ground. The temperature here has now dropped down to 29.8° Will have to keep a eye on just how much freezing rain we get in the next two nights a  quarter to third of a inch of ice can cause a lot of issues we shall see. 

[Niko]

Freezing rain will hit my area tanite into tomorrow afternoon...yuck!

 

Current temp is 34F w cloudy skies. WWA for my area for ice accumulation. Some power outages could be in play. Hope not.

[snowman1]

06z GFS......a parade of Minny/Wisco specials. Wow.

[Tom]

Storms, more storms and rumors of storms....folks, the forthcoming pattern is about as good as it gets for our Sub to be tracking winter storms.  Like always, some will do good, others will not...but the evolution of the pattern is leaning towards more systems to slide from West/East and not cut as much as you would tend to see given a -PNA pattern.  I'm eyeing a potential large scale "share the wealth" storm system early the following week which has been on my calendar (10th-12th).  Both Euro/GFS Operational models are signalling this large system but track/intensity at this stage in the game isn't really important. 

 

Nonetheless, I'm expecting to see the pattern turn the flow more zonal and less amplified, but allow very cold HP's seeping arctic air into the pattern.  I have a vision of "Banana HP's" over the top of juicy systems over the course of this month.  Is there a Valentine's Day storm also brewing (14th-16th)???  Remember last year how the pattern all of a sudden flipped into a "Bowling Ball" alley across our Sub???  I think something very similar is in the works, however, this time it's still Winter and NOT Spring.

 

Taking a look at the CFSv2's "nowcast" forecast for February and it paints a beauty of a pattern if your asking for cold/storms.  There is a screaming signal we will see a hyper active STJ throughout this month and the modeling is certainly heading that way.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

[Tom]

Local photographer, Nick Ulivieri, captured some amazing photos from the Jan '19 Polar Vortex visitation.  If you have some time, take a look...https://www.flickr.com/photos/vexxed82/sets/72157676185928257/

[GDR]

WowAll of Minnesota buried with 35+ inches of snow on the 12z gfs run

[Tom]

If the Euro is right, gear up next week for "Bowling Ball" season...nice and early this year....some pretty maps being advertised for next week.

[james1976]

Tom, how is that early week system looking on the Euro?

[Tom]

Tom, how is that early week system looking on the Euro?

I’ll post in a bit unless someone else does...

[Tom]

Tom, how is that early week system looking on the Euro?

Here you go...

[East Dubzz]

Here you go...

Dang, that’s all from one storm?!?!?

 

 

Ha... I kid, I kid.

[Tom]

Dang, that’s all from one storm?!?!?

 

 

Ha... I kid, I kid.

A couple of "Bowling Ball" systems seem to be setting up in this pattern.  Should be eventful to say the least.

[bud2380]

Some timing differences early next week, but the active pattern looks to continue.  

[gimmesnow]

Here you go...

 

Thank god, GFS being stupid with rain most of the time like usual. Though it did the same thing with January. Thought we'd be too lucky to see GFS screw up so badly twice in a row but I guess it really is the Garbage Forecasting System.

[Tom]

Thank god, GFS being stupid with rain most of the time like usual. Though it did the same thing with January. Thought we'd be too lucky to see GFS screw up so badly twice in a row but I guess it really is the Garbage Forecasting System.

Don’t get to excited, we’re still 6-7 days out...

[james1976]

Here you go...

Thanks and whoa!

[East Dubzz]

While those three weeks of snow were fun, I’m definitely now more at the point of give me 6+ or don’t giveth at all. I guess picking up the hobby of golf has changed me

[gimmesnow]

Don’t get to excited, we’re still 6-7 days out...

 

I know we have a long way to go, but it seems that GFS has consistently shown rainers while Euro was accurate. It gives me some hope at least. I feel like after the last few winters being so mean with only teasing us with a little winter at a time like things are not good.

 

Looking at GFS it feels like I should get out my umbrella for the rest of Feb.

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS has a few inches of snow across Iowa every other day beginning Sunday.... several storms.  That would be fantastic.

[Niko]

Looking like a nasty icestorm on the way. Possibly near half inch of ice for mby.

[Niko]

Currently at 27F w cloudy skies. Ice developing after midnight.

[westMJim]

looking at radar this looks like a fast moving quick event. It looks like it will be here before 10 pm and out of here before 3 AM. The current temperature here is 30.2° 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS with the Central Plains glacier. Mercy.

[Clinton]

18z FV3 is not stop snow I love it!