February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tony]

Holy cow it is a ways out but the GFS is showing a monster storm at the end of the run. 985 mb wow!

I did see this and I know it will probably disappear but what a massive storm. Slow moving and tons of moisture covering a huge area. Have not seen a storm like this in a long tine

[Stormhunter87]

I did see this and I know it will probably disappear but what a massive storm. Slow moving and tons of moisture covering a huge area. Have not seen a storm like this in a long tine

That's for sure on both points. Would love to see it happen.

[Beltrami Island]

NWS now has 5-8" forecast for me tonight through tomorrow. Got 7" Sunday night. Light fluffy snow here, but it looks pretty. It looks like I may have to clear off my roof. I haven't had to do that since February 2013.

[jaster220]

After seeing the 12z EPS data, both EPS/GEFS agree that it is going to get a lot colder and much more snowier for a lot of the heartland of the nation.  I'm pretty enthusiastic about what's coming next week.  For the early week system next week, there are many members showing large  systems that take a southerly route.  I'd say there is about a 50/50 split on systems cutting west and taking a southerly route.  

 

Castro from LOT had an almost identical post this afternoon/eve. He's also pretty excited about next week's potential and in a 2nd post focused on the MJO and how the GFS has been over-pumping the SER. He believes the Euro is much more realistic and the differences at h5 are stark. Keeps the "bowling ball" scenario in play for those of us further east. Something at least. I've seen too much brown ground during MET winter beginning 12-26-16, and this year's taking the cake in that regard.

[East Dubzz]

GFS cuts two storms right across Iowa next week. No thanks on that! Though I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being something like that.

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro has the hardest cutter it has shown so far.... right across Iowa.

[james1976]

It will happen. Iowa is the low magnet. Enjoy your February rain.

[Grizzcoat]

It's actually all snow for many in IA-- and a tremendous amount. The sunday system is stronger- still warning snows for Tuesday and another event at the end of the run. 

[Tom]

I reached out to iFred yesterday and asked him about why they took the "like" button off the site and it was to keep things anonymous.  Waking up this morning, I noticed he changed it back to the original format.  Hope you all enjoy using the "like" button once again!  

[Tom]

I fired up a storm thread for the big storm showing up early next week...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1963-211-213-potential-major-winter-storm/

[westMJim]

Here is a update as to how this winter has played out so far. Here at Grand Rapids we are still running well below average in the snow fall department. February there only has been a trace of snow fall as of today. Since December 1^st only 33.7” has fallen and for the season just 48.1” but remember that includes 14.4” in November.  Out of the 69 days since December 1^st there has only been 24 days with 1” or more on the ground at Grand Rapids. On the temperature side the mean for December was 32.5° (+3.3) January 21.8 (-2.6) and so far in February 30.2 (+5.4) 

[Money]

I love how you say “just 48.1” when many areas haven’t even received 25 inches for the year on here

[Tom]

Is there any hope for those farther south to enjoy some snow in this pattern???  Yes, and I'll take the time today to dive into the details of the progression of this pattern.  While those up north continue to get hit this week and into the middle part of next week, IMO, the storm track will slowly but surely shift farther south as major drivers including the MJO, AO/NAO and the all important -PNA begin to work in harmony to spread the wealth across the S Plains/MW and into the Lower Lakes.  The lack of any high lat blocking across the Arctic regions through the first 10-15 days of this month has lead to the hard cutters we have, and will experience over the next week.  However, these blocking signals are now beginning to show signs that they will begin to show up late next week.

 

I've long believed this month will be a Big producer in the Snow Dept and the models continue to show an unbelievably active pattern across our Sub.  The LRC will continue to shine over the next couple weeks and throughout this month.  I'm targeting some big time storms and look no farther than early next week, following this storm I have circle the dates of the (18th-21st) & (25th-28th) as potential highlight storms this month. I still think there is a sneaky storm just after Valentines Day that may develop which some models are picking up on.  Boy, this pattern is about to kick into high gear as the Central CONUS will reap the rewards of the major drivers in the overall wx pattern.  The idea that a remix of what happened in Boston during their Snow Blitz in Feb '15 is in the cards but instead, focusing most of the attention this year in building the "Heartland Glacier".

 

Last nights JMA Weeklies have come in and they certainly are advertising quite a different look than the CFSv2 weeklies as we head into Week 2 and then Weeks 3-4.  Take a look at the 500mb/temp maps below as they paint a different picture.  Will the Euro Weeklies trend this way tonight???  I think we can expect the models to show the cold press farther south and east as we progress through this month.

 

Week 2 temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201902.D0612_gl2.png

 

Weeks 3-4 temps...no doubt in my mind March is going to Roar in like a Lion this year.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201902.D0612_gl2.png

 

[Tom]

12z NAM showing a decent hit for a lot of us late this weekend...

 

[Niko]

Currently at 32F w light freezing drizzle. Its going to get warm today. As a matter a fact, a record high temp is possible. Maybe near 60F b4 temps plunge into the 20s tanite w a rapid freeze on any water remaining on the roads. Rainfall should be near 0.50" or less. Thunder not outta the question as well. So, long story short, today will feature Spring and Winter in one day.....

[Hawkeye]

Today's 12z FV3 for the next ten days.  It could be a nice period IF we can get the Tuesday system to track just south and not cut northeast through Iowa.

 

[Money]

Gfs FV3 looks good for this weekend

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_024h&rh=2019020712&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Tom]

From about KC on north, the 12z GEFS are screaming "Build that Glacier" over the next 2 weeks.....my goodness, I think we are on the verge of seeing natures version of "February Fury".  The guidance I"m seeing is falling in line with my ideas and thoughts as we may be entering a period of non-stop onslaught of storm systems tracking right through our Sub.  This will end up being a memorable month for many.

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro with a general 2-4" event, maybe localized more across IA/N IL/S WI/MI on Sun into Mon am...

[Stormhunter87]

Lots of fast moving storms decent hits for Iowa, but keeping an eye on that 22nd storm.

[East Dubzz]

Sunday system has been looking more encouraging for a nice little snowfall to whiten the ground again.

 

18z NAM lays down a good .20 - .35 QPF swath in E Iowa from like Iowa City up to SE Minny. DVN said average ratios of 15:1, so that’d be a nice little advisory snowfall.

[East Dubzz]

Temp was 30* at noon, but dropped all the way to 10* by 5. Current at 9*, with a wind chill of -12.

[Niko]

Winds are really gusty. I am receiving gusts to as high as 45mph. Black ice will be an issue tomorrow morning. Temps will fall sharply tanite (upper teens).

[jcwxguy]

Sunday system may need a thread

[james1976]

Sunday system may need a thread

FV3 is horrendous. Not saying it wont score a coup at some point but it reminds me of the DGEX. Always way overblown.

[jcwxguy]

FV3 is horrendous. Not saying it wont score a coup at some point but it reminds me of the DGEX. Always way overblown.

hopefully they make some more changes before it replaces current GFS (although it scores higher in the 500mb area then current GFS)

[Tom]

Westerly winds have not stopped howling all night long.  Temps are down to +7F, winds are out of the W @ 25 mph and G 45 mph....it's a wee bit chilly out there this morning. 

[Tom]

I started a thread for the light/mod snow event late this weekend into Monday...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1964-210-211-snow-event/

[Tom]

For the first time this season, we are starting to see the SOI crash quite a bit and I'm expecting to see model volatility over the next few days as big changes are evolving in the PAC.

 

 

SOI values for 8 Feb, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days 0.04

 

Average SOI for last 90 days

2.37

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -10.33

 

 

Meanwhile, nature is growing and expansive and deep snow pack across the Dakotas and Upper MW where a large and expansive cold pool will have no problem staying put in the extended and likely all month long.  The storminess and cold inundating the PAC NW/West coast and Dakotas is very reminiscent of the La Nina pattern we saw back in '16/'17, however, this year we have a few different variables that are influencing the pattern which will aid in more favorable snow production across our Sub Forum.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Currently -11F with a wind chill of -34F. Deep fresh snowpack really doing work.

[westMJim]

Getting light snow and blowing snow here at my house with about 1.5" of new snow but it is blowing around a lot. As had been stated before many people are without power here  My son came over last night his power is out and may be out until Sunday. There is a reported 150,000 plus with out power in west Michigan still at this time with about 90,000 in the city of Grand Rapids. Here is a list of some of the shelters open in the city of Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

The Rapid Central Station, 250 Grandville Avenue SW in Grand Rapids, from 11:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. Friday.

Hispanic Center, 1204 Grandville Avenue in Grand Rapids, from 11:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. Friday. 

Boys and Girls Club, 726 Madison Avenue SE in Grand Rapids, 11:30 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Kids' Food Basket, 2055 Oak Industrial Drive Suite C in Grand Rapids, from 11:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Friday. 

Dr. Martin Luther King Elementary School, 55 E. Sherman in Muskegon, from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Friday

Edgewood Elementary, 3028 Howden Street in Muskegon Heights, from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Friday.

East Park Manor, 615 Hovey Avenue in Muskegon, from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Friday. 

Stay warm and safe out there.

[CentralNebWeather]

According to Nebraska Mesonet, every reporting station in Nebraska was below 0 at 7 AM.  It shows two locations in my area at either -8 or -11.  My truck said -10 at 6:00 AM as I had early morning practice with my 7th grade basketball boys team so it could have easily dropped another degree or 2.  Fortunately wind was about 5 MPH or so, wind chill was -19 the last time I checked.

[westMJim]

Ice storms are no fun here is a update on the power situation here in the Grand Rapids area from the online addition of the local news paper (note much more up to date then the local TV news for some reason)

Power outages continue to impact West and Mid-Michigan as Consumers Energy reports there are 157,522 affected customers as of 8:20 a.m. Friday, Feb. 8.

“Consumers Energy is in an 'all hands on deck’ mode -- which includes crews from out of state -- to restore customers’ power safely and as quickly as possible,” the utility says in one of its Friday morning updates.

“The damage from the storms is extensive and we estimate that restoration work will continue around the clock into Monday to get every affected customer restored.”

The main cluster of outages is in the Metro Grand Rapids and greater Muskegon areas. Affected areas have continued to spread across Mid-Michigan since Thursday morning. One important thing to note is that these outage numbers have greatly fluctuated since Thursday morning, jumping from about 35,000 at 8 am. to more than 140,000 after 3 p.m. Then up to 157,000 by midnight.

[gosaints]

With yesterdays 5.4 inches rochester international airport (25 minutes from my pad) is 8.6 inches above normal on snow for the season 42.7 inches...

[westMJim]

Getting light snow to at times moderate snow and blowing snow and the temperature is now down to 14.8° here. 

[Snowshoe]

Dang cold this morning. Temp just slightly below zero but the wind is howling! Getting the track set up for our snowmobile club radar run. Tomorrow will be a perfect day to race sleds on the Wisconsin River!

 

 

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w a few snowshowers and quite windy w temps in the upper teens.

[Minny_Weather]

Not much to say. There's a bit of wind but not much. 100% blue sky. -0.6*F.

[Niko]

Not sure, but I am seeing another storm 2 days later after Tuesdays system....something to monitor as well. That could be all snow and significant as well. I think Tom mentioned it on his (storm dates) and its already showing up in my forecast.

[Tom]

This has my attention...does today's 12z Euro Op/EPS make any sense towards its own MJO forecast???  By the 11th/12th it is largely into Phase 7 and heading into Phase 8 which should overwhelm our Sub with cold.  Interesting test case setting up with the modeling.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif