February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Great 12z EURO run. We still have a long ways to go though. I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. Think prolonged cold and heavy snow. ❄❄

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Well, here's to hoping for baby step improvements on the 18z runs for Sunday/Monday. We have roughly 48 more hours to get as many baby steps as we can.

 

#Pray4snow

[Jesse]

4am temps on the 11th.

 

Salem: 18

Eugene: 20

HIO: 11

PDX: 22

 

Looks like around 10 up here...

Always so much more fun when things are safely at hour 240.

[MossMan]

Well, here's to hoping for baby step improvements on the 18z runs for Sunday/Monday. We have roughly 48 more hours to get as many baby steps as we can.

 

#Pray4snow

According to Felton at NWS Seattle there is still a “lot of uncertainty this far out” so there is still plenty of time for tweaks and notches and that is all that is really needed to turn the Sunday-Monday timeframe into a real player!

[Kayla]

Even looks like another block merger is about to happen at day 10. The cold is not going anywhere anytime soon that's for sure! 

 

After Sunday morning Bozeman doesn't even get above 20F through day 10 with plenty of below zero days. Brutal sustained cold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4am temps on the 11th.

 

Salem: 18

Eugene: 20

HIO: 11

PDX: 22

 

Looks like around 10 up here...

With solid snowcover, HIO can definitely reach that or even go lower to the single digits.

[Gradient Keeper]

My cautiously optimistic self probably shouldn't do this, but my confidence is increasing significantly for Cold and SNOW over the next 7-10 days! YEAH! Let's do this.

 

18z NAM in 16 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Even looks like another block merger is about to happen at day 10. The cold is not going anywhere anytime soon that's for sure!

 

After Sunday morning Bozeman doesn't even get above 20F through day 10 with plenty of below zero days. Brutal sustained cold.

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the EURO guidance the next 10 days. SLE would be looking at about a -6F departure through the first 10 days of February. Pretty nice possibilities, especially considering the next couple days should be fairly mild.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My cautiously optimistic self probably shouldn't do this, but my confidence is increasing significantly for Cold and SNOW over the next 7-10 days! YEAH! Let's do this.

 

18z NAM in 16 minutes

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Canadian ensembles shows a good possibility for modified arctic air into the eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin by the 6th.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 0.02” for the day.

[FroYoBro]

PDX up to 0.02” for the day.

 

Dynamic month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS out to hour 180. Looks good.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just analyzed Water vapor imagery and that upper level trough is looking potent. I also see this produced 90mph wind gusts near Juneau! WOW

1 S Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M90 MPH at 3:02 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT AJ DOCK

S Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M61 MPH at 2:13 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT JUNEAU DOWNTOWN LIBRARY

Douglas [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M65 MPH at 31 Jan, 8:48 PM AKST -- WIND GUSTS RECORDED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS BOAT HARBOR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Control run looks fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Control run is so good. So much potential folks!

[Perturbed Member]

Control run is so good. So much potential folks!

 

Anything particularly interesting about the EPS and control?

[dairyd]

GOES-17 and the front in BC:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anything particularly interesting about the EPS and control?

 

Major arctic blast next weekend on the control run. EPS slightly improved from 00z.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EPS out to hour 180. Looks good.

Day 5 in the 12z EPS looks colder than the operational with a stronger cold pool.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Will be so nice to have some below normal temps. Hopefully some more highs in the 30s. Haven’t had many to this point here.

[Esquimalt]

Major arctic blast next weekend on the control run. EPS slightly improved from 00z.

How major?

[Kayla]

The sustained blocking and cold continues right through day 15 on the 12z EPS. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

Looking like we might have a shot at a top tier cold February out this way. 1936 is an unreachable feat but a top 5 is definitely within reach if we end up with that much sustained blocking through at least mid month.

[Timmy Supercell]

It might sprinkle today. Most exciting thing that will happen in the last nearly 2 weeks. lawl.

 

But winter is not over, it's coming back.

[The Swamp]

How bout a snow-rainbow? No trouble finding yellow anyway!

A snowbow? Cool!

 

There are certain medical conditions that could allow for colors other than yellow. Just sayin.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO EPS AO, EPO and PNA teleconnections. Love seeing that sinking PNA.

 

[Blizzard777]

I just analyzed Water vapor imagery and that upper level trough is looking potent. I also see this produced 90mph wind gusts near Juneau! WOW 1 S Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M90 MPH at 3:02 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT AJ DOCKS Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M61 MPH at 2:13 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT JUNEAU DOWNTOWN LIBRARYDouglas [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M65 MPH at 31 Jan, 8:48 PM AKST -- WIND GUSTS RECORDED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS BOAT HARBOR.

Those are going to be K12 specials up there and off the coast!

[The Swamp]

48° in Puyallup with moderate rain.

 

Feels like it’s going to snow in the next few days in the swamp.

 

I got a feelin.....

[Blizzard777]

The sustained blocking and cold continues right through day 15 on the 12z EPS. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

Looking like we might have a shot at a top tier cold February out this way. 1936 is an unreachable feat but a top 5 is definitely within reach if we end up with that much sustained blocking through at least mid month.

Let’s us know if it’s possible to burn out on snow and cold!

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright. Based on the GFS, ECMWF, EPS I'm just going to go ahead and break it out.

 

Colder runs ahead. Money back guarantee.

[Omegaraptor]

It was raining. It stopped.

[Jesse]

It was raining. It stopped.

Today’s front seems pretty weak and washed out. Nice to finally see that for a change!

[TT-SEA]

Today’s front seems pretty weak and washed out. Nice to finally see that for a change!

 

 

Solidly rainy day up here... up to .50 at SEA now and the same here. 

 

Interestingly... the ECMWF does not really show any more rain over the next 10 days.   We get 4 inches of snow next Thursday night... but not much else in terms of precipitation.  

[Meatyorologist]

48° in Puyallup with moderate rain.

 

Feels like it’s going to snow in the next few days in the swamp.

 

I got a feelin.....

....that tonight’s gonna be a good night.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

Solidly rainy day up here... up to .50 at SEA now and the same here.

 

 

[TroutdaleWind]

To pass the time....

Do you remember the Jan 1980 Portland snow storm?

 

I recall a TV Met (I don't remember his name, channel 6 I believe) that forecast a major snow event for PDX. Everyone else scoffed at the idea.

He turned out to be correct.

 

My boss at the time lived near Mall 205 in east Portland and at one point had close to 2 feet of snow. While I lived in Sherwood and all we got was chunky rain.

It seems an arctic front got hung up over Portland, with low pressure just off the coast circulating a lot of precipitation over Portland.

[MossMan]

Solidly rainy day up here... up to .50 at SEA now and the same here.

 

Interestingly... the ECMWF does not really show any more rain over the next 10 days. We get 4 inches of snow next Thursday night... but not much else in terms of precipitation.

Only a trace here so far.

[Jesse]

To pass the time....

Do you remember the Jan 1980 Portland snow storm?

 

I recall a TV Met (I don't remember his name, channel 6 I believe) that forecast a major snow event for PDX. Everyone else scoffed at the idea.

He turned out to be correct.

 

My boss at the time lived near Mall 205 in east Portland and at one point had close to 2 feet of snow. While I lived in Sherwood and all we got was chunky rain.

It seems an arctic front got hung up over Portland, with low pressure just off the coast circulating a lot of precipitation over Portland.

That was a great event. If I recall correctly the state 24 hour snowfall record was set at Bonneville dam with that one.