Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Keep posting model frames of all kinds and sharing this forum around. We are building a time capsule to what is already unprecedented in the model era and if the next couple weeks play out, something that rivals an all time great event. When this is done, I'll spend a weekend and you your posts, maps, images, and obs to build a story from the first frame with a block to the last flake from the sky.We may lose members along the way due to info overload and eye candy but stay the course! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 It would be interesting to go back to the January forum to just before the models starting locking in on this. IIRC, it had been showing something good, backed off on it for awhile, then suddenly starting showing something good and here we are. I remember all the stress about the Kona low earlier in January. Wow, times change quickly. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 My gut feeling is that the models continue pushing the snow progressively farther south with each run and seattle gets the short stick like in 2012 while Portland gets 14 inches. How did I do?You did well. You just convinced me to stop looking at and analyzing the models and start going with my gut. Go Portland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z fv3.Wish I could be in Hoodsport for this event... "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewnichols25 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Some nice low clouds over Lake Washington this morning. https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1093194144586129410 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I wonder why there has always been a dry space around the Enumclaw area, is this most likely due to the drying east winds that may make an appearance? East winds have historically been a major factor for along with shadowing of how the flow wraps around the Olympics. Many times we can see area's around us get snow and we end up substantially less. I am doubt that will be a huge factor and if it is, we should still do well overall. I do have a concern about a rain start if southerly flow is strong enough but feel it won't last long (if at all) and at the end of day we still come out with 3 to 6 inches. EXCITED! My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 latest UW GFS is in. 5-8" of snow in seattle by 4pm saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wish I could be in Hoodsport for this event... If you leave now you should be able to make it up by Friday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Then you shouldn't be worried. You're right, "something" will happen. Keep studying the models, do your due diligence and enjoy the possibilities. Sometimes we win, sometimes we don't. Things look promising right now but it's never an absolute like some try to make it be until it happens. We all want snow. Patience is part of this game we play here. Worry won't make it happen or not. Enjoy the journey! It will warm up one of these days. We will return to rain, split flow, and moss. Don't waste the here and now. These are the fun times. Very wise words It is time to just take in what’s before us and know the door of winter has finally opened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Screenshot (183).pnglatest UW GFS is in. 5-8" of snow in seattle by 4pm saturday.Wow. Much of Victoria gets a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Or maybe you meant K12 and understood mine. Can't keep up!i was referencing k12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 PDX reporting 29 and light snow as of 9am. Must be falling from the fog layer. What a nice period of wintery weather we are already experiencing. Just hard to believe there could be so much more on the way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 PDX reporting 29 and light snow as of 9am. Must be falling from the fog layer. What a nice period of wintery weather we are already experiencing. Just hard to believe there could be so much more on the way.Wow nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 East winds have historically been a major factor for along with shadowing of how the flow wraps around the Olympics. Many times we can see area's around us get snow and we end up substantially less. I am doubt that will be a huge factor and if it is, we should still do well overall. I do have a concern about a rain start if southerly flow is strong enough but feel it won't last long (if at all) and at the end of day we still come out with 3 to 6 inches. EXCITED! Ya, i don’t like the south wind push either but I know it’s just temporary! Hoping the wet bulb will push us through that transition and no rain will be seen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wish I could be in Hoodsport for this event...I'm 8 miles east and might be looking at some deep snow by Monday. If there is any east flow component it will be crazy deep here. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I'm positively giddy for you guys and all my family/friends in the PNW. Wish I wasn't so busy with work so I could keep up more with the models and analysis! At least I'll be able to closely follow along this coming weekend. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 NWS zone forecast for downtown Seattle is already at a max of 7.5 possible inches. Friday night snow likely and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 i was referencing k12Mine was a valid concern. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I'm positively giddy for you guys and all my family/friends in the PNW. Wish I wasn't so busy with work so I could keep up more with the models and analysis! At least I'll be able to closely follow along this coming weekend. The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB forcing on the tropics, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned. I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright31 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB/internal modes, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned. I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time. Ehhhh... that's a big statement. I had upwards of 18" in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB forcing on the tropics, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned. I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time. first time since 2008 I didn’t have to use the “marginal” caveat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 My wife was at Trader Joe's this morning and said lines were long with people "stocking up for the storm." Word is out apparently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Ehhhh... that's a big statement. I had upwards of 18" in 2008Yeah, to be clear I’m only talking about the modeled wavetrain/large scale pattern, and the components driving it going forward. Overall I do think this is a healthier wavetrain than December 2008 with a very different dynamic origin. What that might entail for you locally, I’m not sure. My knowledge on PNW mesoscale dynamics isn’t very good. I’m trying to learn more, though! 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 20 at SEA, 23 at PDX for lows today. Both are lagging behind yesterday's temps, looks like some cloudcover developing at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12Z ECMWF looks perfectly identical on Thursday evening to its 00Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12Z ECMWF looks perfectly identical on Thursday evening to its 00Z run. Doesn't look great for Portland. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 20 at SEA, 23 at PDX for lows today. Both are lagging behind yesterday's temps, looks like some cloudcover developing at the right time. There is virtually no cloud cover up here... just some lake fog. Its totally sunny at SEA... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Early Friday morning... this so much slower than the NAM and ICON. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Any hot takes on the GFS ensembles would be appreciated. Hoping to see the 12Z op as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z Euro is rolling. out to late thursday night so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Friday through 10 a.m. No sign that a massive snowstorm will start in Seattle just 6 hours later. But the 00Z run had no sign either and it still got there. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Any hot takes on the GFS ensembles would be appreciated. Hoping to see the 12Z op as an outlier.Looking better in the LR for sure. A definite warmup around febuary 14th, but then the second shot comes thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 There is virtually no cloud cover up here... just some lake fog. Its totally sunny at SEA... Definitely a lot of low clouds down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Friday through 4 p.m. Here it comes. At least everyone should be able to get home safely that afternoon. The craziness will start in the evening. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Tim is the fastest draw in the west with the euro maps! Maybe ten second delay from when there even available lol. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Friday evening... slight shift to the north from the 00Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Early Saturday morning... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Looking better in the LR for sure. A definite warmup around febuary 14th, but then the second shot comes thru Was referring more specifically to its handling of the cutoff energy early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 So glad I found this thread. I don't know anyone else who cares about weather, or even knows how to look at a forecast. Most people just love those garbage hourly forecasts from their cell phones. 'It's supposed to snow non stop for the next 6 hours!', or 'We're going to get a break from the rain at 4pm.' 2 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Total snow through Saturday morning... a little less snow in my area than the 00Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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