February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[snow_wizard]

Been a long time since we had a low track from this angle and hit the sweet spot for the sound. Long time.

 

I know that all too well.  That scenario is when my area does exceedingly well.  I guess I can't complain.  I've done well enough this month and have yet to see the ultimate pattern for this micro climate.  The snowstorm a couple of weeks ago was another scenario we do well here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well gfs is a good overall run for Oregon, Portland area is going to be close to the south end of the event hope is still alive for them

[Perturbed Member]

00z FV3

 

 

 

Compared to the last FV3

 

[Kayla]

Trending south!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma.

Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything.

Even though I dont know anyone on here beyond the forum i consider all you my friends and i like to see all my friends happy. It sucks dog shitt to miss out.

[MossMan]

Shut up.

Fine. Northgate and points north...to accommodate the south jog.

[Jesse]

Going to be a lot of throwing up in anticipation of tonight’s euro run.

[FroYoBro]

IT IS SO OBVIOUS THAT THIS IS GOING TO TREND SOUTH. ENJOY CALIFORNIA. 

[Jesse]

WHERE DID TIM GO?!?!??

[GHweatherChris]

So glad I am not invested in this event...

[MossMan]

Going to be a lot of throwing up in anticipation of tonight’s euro run.

Low to mid 40’s. No need to look.

[TT-SEA]

Pleasantly surprised right now.  

 

I really want to be wrong.  

[Jesse]

So glad I am not invested in this event...

You sure are doing a good job of hiding it.

[El_Nina]

We know nothing yet.

That is what we know.

[Perturbed Member]

WHERE DID TIM GO?!?!??

 

Desperately checking the JMA and NAVGEM for signs of a northward trend. 

[MossMan]

WHERE DID TIM GO?!?!??

He’s busy making an evening homemade martini.

[wxmet]

I thought it was suppose to (must) trend north?

[TT-SEA]

WHERE DID TIM GO?!?!??

 

Dude... I am here!  

 

I will gladly call myself out if the models still show it going south by tomorrow night.   I hope that is the case.

[Jesse]

Pleasantly surprised right now.

 

I really want to be wrong.

Almost like it’s a unique setup with lots of moving parts and more play than you’re giving it credit for.

[MikeInEverett]

As much as I want to get buried again I’ve definitely had my fair share of snow this month. Wouldn’t mind seeing Portland get buried to make this month regionally big and not just for Seattle!!

[El_Nina]

Gonna be an agonizing few days coming up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc is further north.

[MossMan]

29.8!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hope you return to some good news

It looks like I have. We just got to Buffalo Wild Wings.

[Jesse]

Dude... I am here!

 

I will gladly call myself out if the models still show it going south by tomorrow night. I hope that is the case.

No one would have to be calling you out, including yourself, if you would refrain from making sweeping, definitive statements and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. It’s funny because you hate Trump for employing the same sort of hubris. Even if you do ultimately end up being right it will be for the wrong reasons.

[ShawniganLake]

Desperately checking the JMA and NAVGEM for signs of a northward trend.

Weird. But I've actually been looking at the Navgem some recently and it hasn't been doing that bad.

[Jesse]

Cmc is further north.

I thought I saw Kayla posting it and it was further south.

[snow_wizard]

Good lord what a complicated the middle of next week.  A million possible outcomes.

[TT-SEA]

Cmc is further north.

 

 

Well... it was so far south on the 12Z run that it had to trend north eventually even if the south solution is right. 

[Kayla]

Cmc is further north.

 

??

[bainbridgekid]

I thought I saw Kayla posting it and it was further south.

Yeah it's South. Portland is on the North edge of the precip field.

[Perturbed Member]

00z GEM, GFS, NAM, FV3 all in some pretty good agreement of a landfall near Coos Bay or just south of it. The GEM and NAM trended north but they were previously way south, the GFS and FV3 moved a good bit south but they were pretty far north before. Hopefully the beginning of some kind of consensus here but I'm sure there will be many more twists and turns. 

 

ICON is on its own for now, the 00z EURO sure is gonna be interesting...

[GHweatherChris]

You sure are doing a good job of hiding it.

Thanks, I agree!

[Perturbed Member]

Weird. But I've actually been looking at the Navgem some recently and it hasn't been doing that bad.

 

I actually look at the NAVGEM from time to time, agree that it isn't actually terrible. It just about wants to take the Monday low into SoCal right now though.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of noteworthy the GFS and FV3 both drop thicknesses to 516 or lower over SEA at one point.  Guaranteed much below normal temps with that.  It looks to me like most of WA is going to be flooding with cold continental air.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just saw the 00z GEM. Just very slightly north of it's 12z run.

 

[ewnichols25]

Yuck.  I hate ice storms...mainly because I have big trees around my house.  We had some ice with the event that brought the epic snow to North Bend, and it made the usual mess.  It is pretty interesting that I've had rain, snow, graupel, freezing rain, and sleet this month.  Nicely rounded for sure!

1/20/12 (?) was the only real ice storm I've seen in SEA. It was interesting to experience but not worth the ~16 hour power outage.

[Phil]

Snowed in LA!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/_leexxxiii_/status/1098700551565467648

[GHweatherChris]

I just saw the 00z GEM. Just very slightly north of it's 12z run.

 

#trend

[Jesse]

00z GEM, GFS, NAM, FV3 all in some pretty good agreement of a landfall near Coos Bay or just south of it. The GEM and NAM trended north but they were previously way south, the GFS and FV3 moved a good bit south but they were pretty far north before. Hopefully the beginning of some kind of consensus here but I'm sure there will be many more twists and turns.

 

ICON is on its own for now, the 00z EURO sure is gonna be interesting...

Hopefully those EU models don’t turn their back on us.