February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Guest CulverJosh]

Mark iz a dummy.

 

Ya.  It was easy to see the models flipping within 18 hours of that event, but he didn't want to backtrack on his forecast until the last minute.

[Jesse]

Ya.  It was easy to see the models flipping within 18 hours of that event, but he didn't want to backtrack on his forecast until the last minute.

 

He backtracked well before that, and so did the models.

[Guest CulverJosh]

East wind density has diminished greatly. Next....

 

Yep, those east winds sure are amazing around here.  My friend told me that in Oregon City right by the water he recorded 26.8 on his weather station overnight.  Pretty impressive for late Feb.

[Deweydog]

Mark iz a dummy.

No, butt his forecast highs for Sunday/Monday are probably too cold.

 

This must be quite an awkward time for you after years of railing him for his runaway warm bias.

[Guest CulverJosh]

He backtracked well before that, and so did the models.

 

Ya, you're right.  Too bad Matt Zaffino and Steve Pierce didn't do the same thing.

[Jesse]

No, butt his forecast highs for Sunday/Monday are probably too cold.

 

This must be quite an awkward time for you after years of railing him for his runaway warm bias.

 

That is a thing, and usually most noticeable April to October. Sort of like yours.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, not in the airport era. But Portland has seen subfreezing highs in March in 1960, 1906, 1896, 1870, 1867, and 1865. Several of which featured sunshine.

 

Another real historic benchmark for our climate is April 4, 1875. Portland had a 40/32 day with east winds and dry weather. That same airmass produced sea level snow in Sacramento.

Certainly says something that we're having to go back to the 1800s.

[Jesse]

Ya, you're right.  Too bad Matt Zaffino and Steve Pierce didn't do the same thing.

 

I wasn't aware about Zaffino, but as for Pierce it makes sense for a radio shock jock impersonating a meteorologist.

[Deweydog]

That is a thing, and usually most noticeable April to October. Sort of like yours.

Indeed. Every year I just keep forecasting warmth for spring and summer and every year I get ***** slapped by persistent cold anomalies and underperforming heat events. Sigh...

[James Jones]

Certainly says something that we're having to go back to the 1800s.

 

It is pretty unfair that things were so much colder back then.

[Jesse]

Indeed. Every year I just keep forecasting warmth for spring and summer and every year I get ***** slapped by persistent cold anomalies and underperforming heat events. Sigh...

 

Barely even hit 100 last year!

[Guest CulverJosh]

I wasn't aware about Zaffino, but as for Pierce it makes sense for a radio shock jock impersonating a meteorologist.

 

Yes.  Evening of, I am pretty sure he was still forecasting 3-6"

[Front Ranger]

Warm season = warm bias

Cold season = cold bias

 

At least his biases are seasonal.

[Jesse]

I think Frontal Snowsquall is Mark Nelsen's weenie alter ego.

[Front Ranger]

It is pretty unfair that things were so much colder back then.

I know. Everyone is always very due now in comparison.

[Deweydog]

Barely even hit 100 last year!

We didn’t. Kind of like they ****MAY**** have not hit 40.0 yesterday.

 

And suddenly we’re due for a BIG heatwave!!!!

[Jesse]

We didn’t. Kind of like they ****MAY**** have not hit 40.0 yesterday.

 

Don't even get me started with those conspiracy theories.

[Deweydog]

Don't even get me started with those conspiracy theories.

Sun angles killed JFK.

[ewnichols25]

Some flakes flying and 41 degrees. DP of 17

[Blizzard777]

Not as much excitement in Federal Way today

Winds now from the SSW 4 mph

Had a few light flurries

43/33

Dew point 22*

Really enjoyed yesterday’s roaring winds and crisp air!

[Jesse]

Getting some sunbreaks here. But it is getting late enough in the day where it isn't really doing anything to my temp. Would be nice to get some clearing tonight for more lows well down into the 20s.

[Phil]

I agree. The placement of the blocking is more important than the overall index numbers.

 

It's just funny because looking at all the major indices, you'd never guess the past month would have ended up so cold across such a large area.

Definitely agree.

 

It drives me crazy how so many people live and die by these numbers and indices without even understanding what it is they represent, or even looking at a hemispheric 500mb map.

 

Go back to the LIA, for example, and the current PNA index would be useless because the Pacific Hadley Cell was so narrow and the NPAC surf zone/polar front was displaced so equatorward that it would likely register as neutral PNA over 90% of the time, with a very southward suppressed jet.

[Phil]

It was quite sudden and stratospheric.

Haha.

[Jesse]

Wow. GFS ensembles have taken a huge step toward the colder Euro camp in the mid range.

 

[HighlandExperience]

A little brightening of the cloud tops moving into WA within the last few satellite frames on both IR and WV.

The 18z GFS looked slightly wetter than what you showed on the euro

[Deweydog]

WOW GFS ensembles have taken a huge step toward the colder Euro camp in the mid range.

 

EC33ACE3-65B9-4E41-965D-887929BA401E.png

Fixed.

[Jesse]

Fixed.

Kid tested Andrew approved.

[Phil]

Past events have no bearing on the track of future storms. The atmosphere isn't keeping a score. Seattle, Portland, and Eugene all have the same odds of being the winner in the next big event as they did a month ago.

I tend to lean this way too. Time is not a variable in probability..if you roll snakeyes, you’re just as (un)likely to do it again on the next roll. (I think a lot of progress could be made in theoretical physics if we replaced the concept of flowing time with an integrated entropy of sorts).

 

Though low frequency/climate tendencies preclude 100% randomness to weather patterns, it can still be safely presumed that random variability does rule the day in the shorter term.

[jakeinthevalley]

Sun angles killed JFK.

Sun angles melted the snow off the grassy knoll

[Phil]

IMO, the debate over whether something is “due” or not conflates and/or welds statistical probability based on historical tendencies with quantitative, mathematically-derived probability rooted in the sea of chaos.

 

It’s all perspective-based, and there’s no way to prove or disprove either take.

[MossMan]

Snow flakes falling from the sky.

[Phil]

What do we know about the 1865, 1867 and 1870 events?

I don’t know about those events in particular, but keep in mind that was still the LIA (IE: the coldest climate period in at least 10,200 years). The Hadley Cell was narrow, the climatological polar front/surf zone was displaced southward by almost 5 degrees latitude across the NPAC, and the downstream wavetrain was an absolute juggernaut..massive blocking over Greenland/NE Canada on an almost annual basis would constantly boot that vortex into Western Canada.

 

Humanity as a whole caught a lucky break..we were very close to glacial inception. We missed it narrowly.

[Deweydog]

Sun angles melted the snow off the grassy knoll

If there had even been a chance of snow that day, LHO would have been too preoccupied with checking the NAM 32km, NAM 12km, NAM 3km, GFS, ICON, JMA, UKMET, EURO, NAVGEM, GEM, WRF, EPS, GEFS, HRRR, RPM and obsessively refreshing the local radar loop to be blowing anyone’s head off that day.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hasn’t been any snowflakes here since 2pm, temp 38 right now, just watching the radar and satellite hoping for the best but I’m not expecting much of anything where I’m at

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

[Perturbed Member]

Ya, you're right.  Too bad Matt Zaffino and Steve Pierce didn't do the same thing.

 

Not sure Steve Pierce can be compared to Matt and Mark. 

[Deweydog]

Not sure Steve Pierce can be compared to Matt and Mark.

You can’t be the AMS President without being a meteorologist!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

* yes you can

[TT-SEA]

This is making the facebook rounds in MN and WI... came up numerous times today.    Some places in MN and WI have had 4-5 feet of snow in February alone.   That has just smashed records. 

 

 

 

 

This is for Oneida County WI... 

 

[Jesse]

The nobody cares part seems fitting.