April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[El_Nina]

Formed there and growing...

Now that's looking more convective.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm very sorry for your loss Andrew. Life is way too short and you never really know what's going to happen next. 

 

On a more positive note. It's an absolute beauty of a day so far here today as well and the drive to work across I-90 bridge this morning is beautiful with Mt. Rainier being stunning with all the snow cover. 

 

So true. The blink of an eye. 

 

You are right today is a beautiful day, and I am doing my best to enjoy it to the fullest...Even if it does include 9 hours at the office.

[TT-SEA]

That’s convective? If so that’s Cumulus Mediocris.

 

IE: Poor man’s convection. Snooze.

We take what we can get.

[TT-SEA]

Weekend is really trending warm on the ECMWF.

[Phil]

[jcmcgaffey]

It appears there was a 35mph wind gust that may have contributed to the deadly crane collapse in Seattle. According to Cliff Mass, the gust was 10-15mph stronger than areas nearby.

Sad outcome.

. From a construction perspective there is no way wind caused this. Had to have been poor foundation or most likely a loosening of the foundation as they were taking it apart causing it to crash. It tipped over from the bottom and should have been tied off to a mobile crane if they were about to take the cab off the top.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm wondering if we will even have a full spring green up this year if we don't get much more rain.

[Phil]

Summer is so depressing here. I totally understand.

 

70s and 80s with low humidity and occasional rain. Literally feels and looks like heaven on Earth with the scenery of greens and blues. Very depressing. I wish it was November already.

We were on a lot clearing job yesterday during the forenoon hours and the gnats were already swarming like crazy. Never seen it this early, so of course nobody thought to bring the magic poison that is “Off Deep Woods”. Love that stuff. Always carry multiple cannisters with me. Almost as important as water.

 

I had at least 10 dead gnats fall out of my hair in the shower when I got home. Miserable.

[Cloud]

With no rain in the forecast, SEA will end the month with above average rainfall (~+1"). 

For the year since Jan. 1, still running behind by ~2",  but did make up some ground for April.  

 

I don't really expect May to make up anymore grounds in rainfall deficit base on what the forecast is showing for the first 2 weeks of May. Dry and sunny. 

 

 

At least I think the temps will be very comfortable.

[Omegaraptor]

Summer is so depressing here. I totally understand.

70s and 80s with low humidity and occasional rain. Literally feels and looks like heaven on Earth with the scenery of greens and blues. Very depressing. I wish it was November already.

Occasional rain?

 

Oh, I wish...

[TT-SEA]

Occasional rain?

 

Oh, I wish...

 

 

One of the driest warm seasons on record last year... and there was still rain at times.  

 

This is May-Sept 2018 in the valley in North Bend:

 

[Omegaraptor]

One of the driest warm seasons on record last year... and there was still rain at times.

 

This is May-Sept 2018 in the valley in North Bend:

 

I mean, you live in the foothills. There’s a difference in precipitation between orographic influenced North Bend and the 190’ floor of the Tualatin Valley.

[Front Ranger]

Read the convo before commenting.

 

The point was, not all ridgy Mays lead to 2018-like summers, not that 2019 will follow 1997 to a tee (though it is a decent analog).

 

Get it now?

I read the convo. Your point can still be valid along with my point - 1997 is the one year you've brought up over and over.

 

Simply cautioning against overreliance on one analog, that's all.

[Front Ranger]

Can we ban Flatiron from responding to any posts without explicitly defined context? So f**king tired of this charade.

The greater context was how many times you've brought up 1997. Larger than one conversation. Breathe.

[TT-SEA]

Now some bubbling up on the ridge too...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS out through day 10... it agrees with the idea of a decent ridge over the weekend and into next week.  

[Jbolin]

Now some bubbling up on the ridge too...

 

These showers are all terrain based with minimal CAPE and LI's barely negative -1C

 

Central sound outside the OLY/CAS range is clear

[TT-SEA]

These showers are all terrain based with minimal CAPE and LI's barely negative -1C

 

Central sound outside the OLY/CAS range is clear

 

Yes... obviously terrain based.

 

[Jbolin]

Yes... obviously terrain based.

 

You needed VIS to tell you that?

[TT-SEA]

Meaner looking now...

[TT-SEA]

You needed VIS to tell you that?

 

 

No... I was just confirming what you said with a satellite view.

 

Its very obvious that its terrain based when you see the clouds building up over every mountain and ridge around you.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim I love your filters. I need to download them. What program do you use?

[TT-SEA]

Tim I love your filters. I need to download them. What program do you use?

 

Dude... its straight up pics taken with a Galaxy 9 and uploaded while I am standing there.    I can barely even see the actual pics that I uploaded until I get back inside and out of the daylight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Persistent dry weather going forward into the summer blast furnace?

 

[Front Ranger]

Can see Tim's mean bubblies from the Space Needle cam.

 

#nofilter

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Completely cloudy now... can't see the development as well.   And less contrast with blue sky and convective clouds of earlier.

 

Still has not rained but a good looking cell is coming down from the north per the UW radar.   The NWS radar web sites are all down again.

[Cloud]

Can see Tim's mean bubblies from the Space Needle cam.

 

#nofilter

 

 

Screenshot_10.png

Could see the showers popping up there in the background around the foothills. I believe the radar shows this.

[Cloud]

. From a construction perspective there is no way wind caused this. Had to have been poor foundation or most likely a loosening of the foundation as they were taking it apart causing it to crash. It tipped over from the bottom and should have been tied off to a mobile crane if they were about to take the cab off the top.

I didn't really want to speculate on the cause of the collapse out of respect for the families involved and obviously Andrew since he knows one the victims personally. The AP is now reporting human error even though investigations will take months. This is completely preventable and as you said, the way the crane went down really tells me that seems to be the case and the wind gusts were not the main factor. 

[TT-SEA]

Windy and chilly now and spitting rain... completely different day than earlier.

[Cloud]

Windy and chilly now and spitting rain... completely different day than earlier.

I like it when the sky spits rain. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Persistent dry weather going forward into the summer blast furnace?

 

I want in the middle of that. Seven-some anyone?

[TacomaWaWx]

Some of those cells in the cascades look like they could could move into some of the cascade foothills in the east Puget Sound lowlands but probably won’t drift too much farther west than that if they do at all.

[MossMan]

Had a cell just to the north of me that looked pretty mean about an hour ago. Northish wind blasted through during that time dropping several small branches. Few big drops of rain as well. Now back to lovely sun.

[Front Ranger]

I want in the middle of that. Seven-some anyone?

 

Classic domegutbuster!

[antipex]

The NWS radar web sites are all down again.

 

I use RadarScope. It's well worth the price and works so long as the radar is functional!

[TT-SEA]

Can see Tim's mean bubblies from the Space Needle cam.

 

#nofilter

 

 

Screenshot_10.png

 

 

Still slowly spreading westward...

 

[Requiem]

Classic domegutbuster!

 

Classic Dome Buster, good to see a return to form!

[seattleweatherguy]

My power went out!