jaster220 Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 6z GEFS definitely took a shift south. Thx for showing the Mitt in your maps, even tho I'm not cheering for a snowstorm lol. Not sure why Tom can't shift his a state over to lose WY and snag MI? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 One of the more unique features with this system that will likely produce a lot of snow NW of the SLP is the slow pivot across NE/IA. Eventually, the low occludes and migrates eastward. Some places may see 24-36 hours of constant snowfall but trying to iron those specific details out this far out isn't important. Nonetheless, just your typical April snow as we see back-to-back Aprils producing monster winter storms. #sarc 00z EPS took another tick S/SE which may come in exceptionally close to some members across E NE/IA and into WI. @St Paul and MN peeps, gas up your snow blowers and prep your cameras for some footage of this storm. This looks like it will be a historic system for some.Still a ways to go but the fact that this thing is still lurking on the models is concerning. Wth temps already at 63F this morning it really seems almost inconceivable that a snowstorm of this magnitude is possible in a few days. The grass has greened up considerably over the weekend, the ice on the lakes is melting, wildlife has returned. I’m not rooting for snow, but if we’re gonna do this let’s go big....really big. I was at Home Depot this morning and a lot of people were looking to buy snow shovels which are out of season. The employees were talking about how they are going to move all of their outdoor plants, flowers, etc inside. Pretty crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Ryan Maue Tweet about the possible blizzard. Interesting https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1114900682056916993?s=21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Thermals won't dial in until the storm starts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 12z gfs and Icon took sig shifts North again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 GFS and FV3 with 25-30” kuchera for the metro. Lol. Not buying that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 GFS and FV3 with 25-30” kuchera for the metro. Lol. Not buying that.the metro winter is going to continue. The Wednesday waa wing is the wild card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 FV3 showing a spot of 57" in SW Minnesota. Craig should post that on FB and sound the alarms 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 12z GEFS back north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 If Td’s were 4 degrees higher in the warm sector, we’d be talking a legit moderate risk outbreak over much of the plains with this system. Alas, it was not to be due to a piece of trash over the FL panhandle. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 The above excludes the possibility of a marginal looking cold core event over Iowa on Thursday. That could still happen as 50s dews work in those cases. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Euro with a 983mb SLP in far SE NE at hour 96. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Euro sure is a bit slower kicking out the low compared to some of the other globals after hr 96. No precip maps yet but I think some places are buried again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 12z Euro is a slow mover. Hour 96 SE Nebraska, hour 120 Central Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 12z Euro = Mind Boggling snowfall totals....WAA cuts into totals in SE MN/S/C WI... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Not to mention, it has wicked winds for 30+ hours in the hardest hit areas of NE/SD/MN...this storm is turning out to be a Monster. Might even rival the March "bomb cyclone". 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 looking more and more like just rain here which makes sense climatologically speaking. Sucks to have the severe weather threat not there either. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Iowa low magnet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Iowa low magnet!Yep, the rule rarely fails. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 NWS Hastings hazardous weather outlook. I would say they are taking the storm seriously. A strong storm system will move across the area Tuesday nightthrough Thursday. There is a slight chance of thunderstormsTuesday night into Wednesday...with the greatest chance north ofInterstate 80. Accumulating snow is expected Wednesday night intoThursday. Parts of the area could see a few inches of snow. Highwinds are also likely...and this would result in blizzardconditions across much of the area late Wednesday night intoThursday. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph are likely along withgusts greater than 58 mph. Significant blowing and drifting snowwill make travel difficult if not impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Yeah kinda sucks to be in the cold sector but have 100% rain with this one. That's no fun. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 7, 2019 Report Share Posted April 7, 2019 Looks like 18z gfs is back South again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Sampling either 12z Tuesday or 0z wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Sampling either 12z Tuesday or 0z wednesday Looks like 12z Tuesday for full sample. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Wow Hastings must be having an interesting night..... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Uggh. Even includes SMI in on the misery. Ofc, now that I'm done with winter mode/mood.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Well its at least looking like Omaha gets 2-3 inches with this system, if it tracks any further south..watch out! Probably wishful thinking though. Time will tell! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 00z NAM showing storms for LNK/OMA right near the 982 Low at 75hrs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Well its at least looking like Omaha gets 2-3 inches with this system, if it tracks any further south..watch out! Probably wishful thinking though. Time will tell!It's still 4 days out and it's April. The least Omaha will see from this storm is 0". If by some divine miracle the low ends up South of where it is now then yes we could see appreciable totals from this. I'd like snow but I'm not willing to say 2-3" is guaranteed considering models are having a hard time deciding whether or not we'll see flakes in the first place. Even if we do get flakes, ratio combined with the fact that snow should fall for a couple hours in daylight (a no-no for April) combined with warm ground temps will make accumulations very hard. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 NWS already throwing out 3-5 FOOT drifting with this storm "The occlusion over Ern NEB depicted by the last 5 EC runs isdisconcerting because it packs the isobars. EC and GFS 850 mbwinds are fcst 50-55 kt. That would produce blzd conds withsignificant blowing/drifting. The Thu AM commute is looking rough!Snow: we will probably not see accums in our CWA as high as theSandhills...but believe we could still see a swath of 3-6" boundedby an area of 1-3". Drifts 3-5 ft high will be possible given theexpected strength of the winds.Suggest keeping a close eye on the fcst and be prepared to alterplans and take necessary precautions." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Looks like strong wrap around with cold air here but not much snow from it. If tracks a little bit further south jackpot. Either way this is a nasty storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Wow. Watches already posted all the way up to just west of the MSP metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 00z Euro...a touch farther south with the initial snow band that forms across MN/IA/WI and even into N IL...however, this run it pulls NW a tad more shifting the heaviest snows a touch NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Tom, do you have a total QPF map? Curious what the Euro is showing in that respect. GFS has a soaker around here, but the NAM looks quite different on that front for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Wow..keep this away from SMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I love spring storms. Some place will get a foot on the front end thump and melt most all of it when the storm cuts over head.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I love spring storms. Some place will get a foot on the front end thump and melt most all of it when the storm cuts over head..Gonna enjoy near 70F today while throwing some lawn fertilizer down. A foot of snow rapidly melting later this week should make the lawn look nice. Crazy wx. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Nam coming in a touch south and little stronger. Impressive amounts of moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Gonna enjoy near 70F today while throwing some lawn fertilizer down. A foot of snow rapidly melting later this week should make the lawn look nice. Crazy wx. Doesnt get any better! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Ha...12z NAM with 42” kuchera and still snowing at the end of the run near the MN/SD border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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