Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Big shift in Invest 95L. Ryan Maue @RyanMaue The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track. Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days. This is a surprising turn of events. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1172096009259945985 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Maybe up in SW BC. Just looks like a pretty standard early fall front coming through here on Saturday night. Saturday looks dry and the main rain band moves out on Sunday morning.Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for September Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Looks like a less wet version of what we saw up here last September. There will likely be some decent totals in the mountains but not too crazy for SeptemberA downer considering how much those warm waters are probably juicing up the fronts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 70394DE2-C5F4-4A6F-A953-38D17338AAFA.jpeg Here’s a view of the fog between me (clear skies here) and the West Hills. Is this an inversion? Seems a bit early to be getting them. I see that type of thing in all seasons down in the valley here. And those marine layer days in the middle of the summer are the result of an inversion. Its not uncommon for there to be a marine layer inversion even on the longest day of the year. We typically refer to the inversion season as the time of year when those all day, cold fog events can happen. But inversions can happen at any time of the year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 59F in Springfield. Looks like a beautiful day on the way. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Looks like the cooler wetter summer east of the mountains has hurt the apple crops:( https://komonews.com/news/local/local-cider-makers-face-challenges-from-the-latest-apple-harvestActually not, the apple crop is supposed to be 18% more than last year overall. From the same article: "In Eastern Washington, the spring and summer weather was favorable for growing apples you find in grocery stores. In fact, according to the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, the crop forecast is projected to be 137 million 40 pound boxes statewide. That’s an increase of more than 17 percent from the 2017-2018 season. You can find these apples in grocery stores in the next few months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Was some dense fog in the Silverton area this morning, but bright sunshine here on the river in Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Yeah the apples have gone gangbusters down here. The old apple tree behind my shop is loaded and my dwarf tree set fruit for the first time this year. My dad's apple trees are loaded so much he is having to try and support their branches so they don't break. Usually cold weather in March is great for setting fruit. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Looks like a warm end of the month. As long as it turns for October I can handle it, especially after the rain we will have gotten.Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Yeah. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s would be nice for a week or so. Let’s hope it doesn’t overstay its welcome or go all 1974 on us.Most of the tools I’m looking at, with UHI, blobias and low solar weighted to an appreciable degree, suggest a cool down is likely after a warm up. Rest easy, my friend. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 PDX fell all the way to 53 this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 The apple tree at my old place would produce insane amounts of apples every other year. Same with the plum tree...with the plums.Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes. My guess was too much drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 12z GFS is slower to move the ridge in. That would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamMe Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Probably overdone... but still looks wet. And really wet up there as expected. Yet somehow there is not a single rainy day for the Seattle area on this run. Most of the precip in this area comes on Thursday night and Saturday night. Goodness the Canadian border area looks wet, dryer toward Bellingham. I better get my run in ASAP! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 A bit of rain here this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 12z GFS is slower to move the ridge in. That would be nice. Looks slightly wetter on this run as well overall. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Nice morning here in Tacoma, high clouds just starting to move in more from the west. 63 degrees currently. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance. But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance.But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts.Well there’s a reason they call it the Failailington Valley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 At 1.8" of rain on the month, average for the month is 2.81, I think we shall get there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Was likely stressed, pruned improperly or the fruit not thinned during those heavy fruiting years. Trees can over produce one year and then they need some recovery time the following season and produce very little. That creates a cycle of producing heavy crops every other year until someone intervenes.Yeah I did one severe prune on them one time in 10yrs that I was there. Otherwise I did nothing with them so probably my bad. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 12Z ECMWF slows down the front on Saturday night even more... and in fact its really a Sunday event now and that day looks pretty wet. Much better on Monday with just scattered showers and more sun. And then ridging starts building in and its basically dry from Tuesday onward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Quite the ridge on the 12z ECMWF. 585 heights north of Central Alberta. Pretty ugly looking pattern country wide. Likely due to those humid inducing water temps. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Quite the ridge on the 12z ECMWF. 585 heights north of Central Alberta. Pretty ugly looking pattern country wide. Likely due to those humid inducing water temps. That's a phat ridge. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 76 and sunny here... nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 76 and sunny here... nice day.Beautiful day out here as well. Perfect weather to have lunch outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Went to the park for my noontime constitutional. Quite balmy. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 This is going to be a great evening to stroll by Lake Ewauna. Hopefully not too many midges though. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 79F in Creswell. Beautiful late summer day. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 F2496B19-17FD-4F55-8160-091DB2B52D2D.png 12z GFS with the first batch of rain... the infamous Tualatin Valley/Washington County Donut Hole makes an appearance. But then again every GFS run changes the precip amounts. I hope some of this later extends to the east sides for me. C'mon I have seen somewhat decent Sep/Oct rains before in this area, non-convective of course. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 79F in Creswell. Beautiful late summer day.Today is the 12th day of Fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 It’s 60F and there’s a 30% chance that it’s already raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Big shift in Invest 95L. Ryan Maue @RyanMaue The most recent ECMWF model has a dramatic shift in Invest 95L track. Gone is any hint of Gulf of Mexico, instead developing a powerful Hurricane off the Southeast Coast in 3-5 days. This is a surprising turn of events. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1172096009259945985And a second one right behind it. Lol. Swamp water is out of control..seems any t-storm could randomly blow up into a hurricane in this pattern. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Nice day!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Went to the park for my noontime constitutional. Quite balmy. Zen yoga? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 80 and sunny here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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