October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Decent signal for cold troughing again after the 3rd of November.

[TT-SEA]

One thing I have noticed is how rapidly the skies have cleared out after the last couple of disturbances. Normally it takes forever to clear out after systems like that, but both Saturday and this evening it went from very cloudy to clear quite rapidly. Probably something to do with the NE Pacific surface high being pushed further north than usual. Could be a big deal to help with cold minimums this winter.

 

On another note...during the warmer weather the last couple of days it only managed to get to 58 here which is close to a normal high for this time of year. Just two days with small positive + departures so far this month.

Actually took us much longer than other places... I was expecting it to break up earlier today like it did everywhere else except for King County.

[Gradient Keeper]

The upstream players on the 00z ECMWF seem to hint this run might be a touch better... Maybe.

[snow_wizard]

Got to 69F. 69/55 so far.

 

Yikes!  I feel very fortunate to have only hit 58.  Currently clear and 46.

[Gradient Keeper]

The upstream players on the 00z ECMWF seem to hint this run might be a touch better... Maybe.

Day 4

 

[snow_wizard]

The upstream players on the 00z ECMWF seem to hint this run might be a touch better... Maybe.

 

I noticed the GFS and GEM both had the entire setup turned slightly clockwise from previous runs.  Better for dig back.  Most of our recent cold waves have featured pretty major improvements in the models in the home stretch.

[snow_wizard]

Day 4

 

 

That's pretty decent.  The surface high complex is oriented very favorable for delivering low level cold as well.  Sometimes that's a bigger deal than the 500mb setup.   

[Front Ranger]

Lots of pretty blocks so far this fall.

[Deweydog]

Looks like a nice weekend on the Euro.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 ...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Very interesting signal for retrogression on the 00z Canadian ensembles.

[Deweydog]

That’s a chillywilly air mass over Canadia.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of pretty blocks so far this fall.

 

Amazing for this early.  Makes you wonder what the winter blocks may look like.  Right now I still think this weekend's block will make it pretty chilly here.  The WRF looks like upper 40s or very low 50s for Saturday.  The ECMWF continues to show remarkably little easterly wind gradient this far north.  Could be a great setup for cold mins IMBY.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Fall was roaring today...

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Day 6 ...

 

 

Favorable tilt for sure.  Way better looking than the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Lots of pretty blocks so far this fall.

 

Very 1978 and 2013 like. Two other ENSO neutral low solar winters with a lot of blocking.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows temps close to 60 out here early next week while parts of Montana have highs in the single digits and teens...

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows the classic Canadian cold front surface pressure configuration yet again at day 10.  This would be about the 5th time this season already assuming the one this weekend verifies.  This is pretty crazy.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Very 1978 and 2013 like. Two other ENSO neutral low solar winters with a lot of blocking.

 

At this point I'm thinking a 1916-17, 1978-79, 1992-93 type winter is pretty possible.  Lots of dry / cold weather, a couple of significant cold waves, and some snow.

[TT-SEA]

At this point I'm thinking a 1916-17, 1978-79, 1992-93 type winter is pretty possible. Lots of dry / cold weather, a couple of significant cold waves, and some snow.

My sense as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF shows the classic Canadian cold front surface pressure configuration yet again at day 10.  This would be about the 5th time this season already assuming the one this weekend verifies.  This is pretty crazy.

We're somewhat close to seeing models trend colder again.

[Jesse]

2004-05.

[ShawniganLake]

A 1916-17 would be pretty mind blowing by today’s standards. Certainly better than anything we’ve seen here in my lifetime. Shawnigan Lake averaged 33.3 for DJF with 82” of snow

[Deweydog]

A 1916-17 would be pretty mind blowing by today’s standards. Certainly better than anything we’ve seen here in my lifetime. Shawnigan Lake averaged 33.3 for DJF with 82” of snow

Followed it up with a nice flu pandemic a couple years later.

[Jesse]

Followed it up with a nice flu pandemic a couple years later.

We’re due.

[Deweydog]

We’re due.

I’m STILL getting over a cold.

[ShawniganLake]

Followed it up with a nice flu pandemic a couple years later.

Get your flu shots!

[Jesse]

Get your flu shots!

I’ve never gotten one. I also never get the flu. Could just be a coincidence I guess.

[snow_wizard]

A 1916-17 would be pretty mind blowing by today’s standards. Certainly better than anything we’ve seen here in my lifetime. Shawnigan Lake averaged 33.3 for DJF with 82” of snow

 

The pattern we are about to go into is a dead ringer for Oct 1916 according to the reanalysis site.  That season was basically cold all the way from Oct - Feb.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ve never gotten one. I also never get the flu. Could just be a coincidence I guess.

I’ve only gotten them a few times. Once when my dad was doing chemo, had to get one if you wanted to visit him. And the past 2 years, I’ve gotten it when we take the kid in for hers. Don’t think I’ve had the flu, but the toddler is sure efficient at passing the cold bugs around.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I’ve never gotten one. I also never get the flu. Could just be a coincidence I guess.

I used to be that way until my wife started working at a very large medical clinic. She is exposed to pretty much everything going around, so our whole family gets them every year.

 

I still managed to get influenza A&B back in the winter of 2016-2017 despite getting the shot, and that was absolutely miserable. They missed the mark really bad that year.

 

FWIW If you think you might have the flu and doctors ask to test you for it, be forewarned that it involves taking cultures from the bottom of your brain via your nose.....ok maybe that it a bit of an exaggeration but they do have to go way the hell up in your sinuses.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 44 here last night chillier than the last few mornings.

[TacomaWaWx]

No rain expected for the next 2 days and then another few days after friday. Chilly days and frosty mornings ahead. This October I’ve already recorded a record amount of mornings down into the 30s, looks like we will just add to that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Very 1978 and 2013 like. Two other ENSO neutral low solar winters with a lot of blocking.

 

2013 had a prolonged inversion episode, didn't it?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Get your flu shots!

 

I usually do. There is the one year where the flu shot caused me to get a flu-like illness. So far, that seems to have been a one-off. If it ever turns into a routine outcome, I'll probably start skipping getting the shot. It's game theory: without the flu shot, I sometimes get the flu. If the flu shot almost never gives me the flu, and almost always prevents me from getting it, it's a win. If not, the argument for it can become a lot less convincing.

[ShawniganLake]

38 here with a light frost on the rooftop s

[TacomaWaWx]

Got influenza when I was in kindergarten, I literally almost died, I’ve never been that sick since. That was also the one year I got a flu shot ever. Parents never took me to get one growing up after that and I’ve never had one as an adult. I haven’t gotten the flu since I was in kindergarten, even while the swine flu was going around. Maybe I’ve just been lucky who knows.

[TacomaWaWx]

Very 1978 and 2013 like. Two other ENSO neutral low solar winters with a lot of blocking.

2013 was pretty dry just like 2019 has been. Wouldn’t suprise me if a drier winter with a couple cold outbreaks was on the way, similar to 13-14. That’s good for snow down here but not necessarily good for snowpack building in the cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2013 was pretty dry just like 2019 has been. Wouldn’t suprise me if a drier winter with a couple cold outbreaks was on the way, similar to 13-14. That’s good for snow down here but not necessarily good for snowpack building in the cascades.

 

2013-14 was pretty lame for snow here in the foothills. Had a 21/2 day with the December event and 23/13 with the February one, so from a cold perspective it definitely delivered the goods.

[TacomaWaWx]

2013-14 was pretty lame for snow here in the foothills. Had a 21/2 day with the December event and 23/13 with the February one, so from a cold perspective it definitely delivered the goods.

yeah not really a good year for ski resorts but we had 2 bouts of small snow here in December and February along with some pretty cold temps. We had 5 sub freezing days in December in a row but only 2” of snow. Had 2 sub freezing days in February and 3” of snow. Main thing about that winter was the cold outbreaks, I had more subfreezing days in 13-14 than any other winter I’ve recorded in the last 15 years. It was pretty dry though until mid February.