November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Perturbed Member]

Oh man that low just went waaaaay south. Gonna be LA landfall soon enough.

 

Right where we want it in this range, plenty of time for the inevitable trend north. It always goes north except for that 02/2019 event! 

 

Except I don't mind it going south too much this time because I just want more cold air to get dragged down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oregon playing for a spot in the College Football Playoffs in a cold and snowy Autzen Stadium!

 

Apple Cup was in the snow last year.  Maybe a snowy Civil War for once?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

One thing in common among every weather forum I use is that very few to no CA members use them. However, every weather forum also has a fairly high number of PNW members for some reason.

 

My college meteorology professor said that most meteorologists liked "bad" (i.e. stormy) weather more than "good" (dry and sunny) because the former was simply more interesting. Stands to reason that weather buffs would tend to gravitate towards a region known for its active weather (and away from one known for its reliably dry conditions most of the year).

[jakeinthevalley]

Well, I will be in Sunriver from Wednesday through Sunday, so I would love to see some of this verify.

 

Might have to take some precautions at home though if the cold comes to the west side.

[Kayla]

My college meteorology professor said that most meteorologists liked "bad" (i.e. stormy) weather more than "good" (dry and sunny) because the former was simply more interesting. Stands to reason that weather buffs would tend to gravitate towards a region known for its active weather (and away from one known for its reliably dry conditions most of the year).

 

Not the case in Montana... I think what Jesse said hit the nail on the head. The PNW or the Mid-Atlantic lives on the fine line between wet/mild and epic snow/cold.

[El_Nina]

Are you back from Florida?

Yes. As of Monday night

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not the case in Montana... I think what Jesse said hit the nail on the head. The PNW or the Mid-Atlantic lives on the fine line between wet/mild and epic snow/cold.

 

Montana simply doesn't have many people, period. That alone suffices to explain the scarcity of Montanans in online forums.

[Omegaraptor]

Montana simply doesn't have many people, period. That alone suffices to explain the scarcity of Montanans in online forums.

 

Same for California. They have interesting climates (think far northern and eastern parts of the state), only problem is that not many people live there.

 

Not many weather enthusiasts in coastal southern CA because the climate isn't interesting enough. Not many weather enthusiasts live in, say, Lassen County because the sample size is too small.

[Jesse]

Montana simply doesn't have many people, period. That alone suffices to explain the scarcity of Montanans in online forums.

 

Are you Frasier?

[Perturbed Member]

ICON as well taking that low way south, but does hint at deformation near PDX mid week similar to the Euro.

 

[Jesse]

My college meteorology professor said that most meteorologists liked "bad" (i.e. stormy) weather more than "good" (dry and sunny) because the former was simply more interesting. Stands to reason that weather buffs would tend to gravitate towards a region known for its active weather (and away from one known for its reliably dry conditions most of the year).

 

He must have never met Cliff Mass, Mark Nelsen or Dewey Dog.

[Kayla]

Montana simply doesn't have many people, period. That alone suffices to explain the scarcity of Montanans in online forums.

 

This is true! But I was more noting that there is a general lack of interest in the weather here from the general public, local media and the NWS. Cold/snow is just as common here as say SoCal sun/warmth is.

 

It causes a general lack of interest when active, cold weather becomes the "norm".

[Front Ranger]

Why is December 1998 not top tier? It bottomed out at -17.5C at 850mb over Salem. Colder than February 1989 and December 1983.

Yeah, I consider it top tier.

 

That was my point. It wasn't Dec 1990, but very few air masses are.

[El_Nina]

Yes. As of Monday night

Speaking of my trip, I was there during the coldest days of the year. Struggled to even hit 65 at the Dolphins game on Sunday with a solid blanket of clouds.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10-day snowfall total...

 

The snowfall maps will likely change but I'm just glad we have exciting weather to follow now.

[Front Ranger]

Most of populated California has dependably boring weather. I think a lot of people live there so they don’t even have to think about the weather as a major factor in their day to day lives.

 

The PNW often trends toward mild as well, but is capable of more extremes and episodes of winter greatness. It seems like areas on the climatological “edge” like that are generally the most active on weather forums. The Mid-Atlantic comes to mind as an East coast analog.

 

Then you have places like New England or the upper Midwest were brutal cold and snow are basically a given any year, and once again relative excitement dwindles.

This.

 

Although you'd be surprised at the number of New England and Midwest weenies on some forums. Of course, higher population for many of those areas too.

[AlTahoe]

Same for California. They have interesting climates (think far northern and eastern parts of the state), only problem is that not many people live there.

 

Not many weather enthusiasts in coastal southern CA because the climate isn't interesting enough. Not many weather enthusiasts live in, say, Lassen County because the sample size is too small.

There are about 50k of us in the Tahoe basin which is pretty much the only area with interesting weather in California. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Apple Cup was in the snow last year. Maybe a snowy Civil War for once?

Yeah, for sure. So a Civil War has never even seen a snowflake in the air before?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, for sure. So a Civil War has never even seen a snowflake in the air before?

 

1985 came close but I don't think so.

[Kayla]

12z EPS ensemble mean is lockstep with the ECMWF operational through day 10.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

There are about 50k of us in the Tahoe basin which is pretty much the only area with interesting weather in California. 

 

Pretty much all the Sierra Nevada and Cascades (which do extend into northern California) have interesting weather. And the coast from about Mendocino northward has in many ways a very PNW-ish feel to it. All are, of course, lightly-populated areas.

[BLI snowman]

There are about 50k of us in the Tahoe basin which is pretty much the only area with interesting weather in California. 

 

Truckee is certainly one of the snowier cities in the U.S.

 

Great climate there, unless you were in the Donner Party.

[AlTahoe]

Truckee is certainly one of the snowier cities in the U.S.

 

Great climate there, unless you were in the Donner Party.

Yeah Lake level Tahoe where most people live has had a 530" season before (1951-1952) not sure if there is a snowier city in America? 

[Kayla]

Yeah Lake level Tahoe where most people live has had a 530" season before (1951-1952) not sure if there is a snowier city in America? 

 

I think only Valdez, AK sees higher amounts in the country.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Kayla]

Truckee is certainly one of the snowier cities in the U.S.

 

Great climate there, unless you were in the Donner Party.

 

That climate seems to be becoming more and more feast or famine though.

[jakeinthevalley]

1985 came close but I don't think so.

It was below freezing at kickoff at Autzen but there really wasn't any snow around. Field was frozen solid. I was a senior in HS and it was the coldest I had ever been at a football game until I went to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA in 1989. About 15 degrees at kickoff.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah Lake level Tahoe where most people live has had a 530" season before (1951-1952) not sure if there is a snowier city in America?

Interesting. I have looked at annual average snowfalls for ski towns, but have always wondered if that was measured "in town" where people live or somewhere "on the mountain", which is bound to have more snow than the town sitting on the base. Is there any substantial difference between North Tahoe and South Tahoe?

[AlTahoe]

Interesting. I have looked at annual average snowfalls for ski towns, but have always wondered if that was measured "in town" where people live or somewhere "on the mountain", which is bound to have more snow than the town sitting on the base. Is there any substantial difference between North Tahoe and South Tahoe?

South shore averages the same as Tahoe City if your on the west end of town near the airport/Meyers. Closer to the Nevada state line the average drops about the same for either north or south shore (down to about 120"). Most ski town's average at the resorts. Most Tahoe resorts average 350-500" Tahoe city and South Lake Tahoe average about 160-190" since we are east of the crest. 

Tahoe city had its worst snow season ever in 2014-2015 with only 33" of snow. So the range is from 33" to 530" which is pretty incredible 

[BLI snowman]

That climate seems to be becoming more and more feast or famine though.

 

They've always been rather like that though, since CA has always had a natural tendency to sit under lengthy ridges.

 

For example, in the famous January 1950, Truckee had 135" of snow. February 1950 followed it up with 3". December 1912 had 0.0" of snow, followed by 73" in January 1913. When they get hit, they get totally slammed, but you have to suffer through some doldrums in almost every winter.

[BhamMe]

I’m heading up to the interior this weekend (Okanagan). Looks like I might be bringing the cold back with me. Same thing happened in February, went up to the interior and the day I came back was the first day of cold on the coast.

Can you pull moisture up to the Kelowna area for next week while you're up there? Big White needs snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No night shift for me have to get some sleep for Doctor Appointment for my knee. At least I'm not pregnant: Crisis averted! I will be here I think for 12z GFS, but not for the EURO.

 

12z GFS in 6 hours 32 minutes

12z GEFS in 8 hours 34 minutes

12z ECMWF in 8 hours 49 minutes

12z EPS in 11 hours 33 minutes

You're going to love the 12z EURO!

[Phil]

The 6z GFS is absolutely insane in terms of blocking. If that's a taste of what's to come this winter is going to be epic for much of the country.

I have a feeling I’m gonna be shoveling in December for the first time since 2013. That month has been so pathetic here for so long..due for a flip.

[Phil]

[TacomaWaWx]

Good lord, some good model runs this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

I would be surprised to not see this trend more and more impressive over the next few days too. It’s been trending colder and colder.

The -EPO will probably trend more amplified as we head into December. And an even deeper -AO should develop towards Christmas if things work out right..some big league, perhaps “top-shelf” vodka cold is probably coming right in time for the heart of winter across much of the US.

 

There’s a chance January might have all states colder than average except Alaska.

[Kayla]

They've always been rather like that though, since CA has always had a natural tendency to sit under lengthy ridges.

 

For example, in the famous January 1950, Truckee had 135" of snow. February 1950 followed it up with 3". December 1912 had 0.0" of snow, followed by 73" in January 1913. When they get hit, they get totally slammed, but you have to suffer through some doldrums in almost every winter.

 

Yeah, I suppose that is Cali for ya. Very volatile climate precip wise. Just seems like the last 10-15 years have been especially volatile but I honestly haven't dug into the numbers.

 

Fun fact: I actually spent the first few years of my life in Truckee (parents just moved back there) and Sugar Bowl was my first day on skis at the ripe age of 4. Probably why I'm so obsessed with snow today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Its going to get cold that’s definitely a given now. Wonder if this is the beginning of a persistent weather pattern...

[Deweydog]

Nice day!