Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[DareDuck]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I ve never been to bend in the winter. Hate it in the summer, what a tourist trap. It’s lovely in autumn though. 
 

My co worker lives in Sunriver and absolutely loves it. 

It’s really not that bad, but my wife and I also generally work Saturday-Tuesday and have Wed-Fri off. Easier to get out on trails and water midweek. 

[Cold Snap]

GEFS and EPS both showing highs in the 70s for the foreseeable future. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil is right about this lasting through Memorial Day.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

GEFS and EPS both showing highs in the 70s for the foreseeable future. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil is right about this lasting through Memorial Day.

12Z EPS also keeps the ridging centered over the west for the entire run.   Those ensemble mean surface temps tend to go towards normal in the long range but would likely be warmer in reality if the 500mb pattern stays ridgy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

May 2018 redux? 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree... guessing this summer will be somewhat similar to 2019.    I also think the water off west coast will warm up significantly by the end of the month given the pattern coming up.

They will warm up temporarily, but the subsurface signature is very deep/entrenched now, so the pattern in mid-June will probably erase most of the surface warming that occurs this month.

We are not returning to a +PDO/+NPMM signature this year. This ain’t a 2015-style El Niño. Would take 10+ months of sustained +PNA/+TNH patterns to flip the PDO back, and that type of evolution is not in the cards this year.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticing it’s 66 at PDX and 53 at SLE. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS also keeps the ridging centered over the west for the entire run.   Those ensemble mean surface temps tend to go towards normal in the long range but would likely be warmer in reality if the 500mb pattern stays ridgy.

Heat dome is early this year. My garden is going to go bonkers

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

They will warm up temporarily, but the subsurface signature is very deep/entrenched now, so the pattern in mid-June will probably erase most of the surface warming that occurs this month.

We are not returning to a +PDO/+NPMM signature this year. This ain’t a 2015-style El Niño. Would take 10+ months of sustained +PNA/+TNH patterns to flip the PDO back, and that type of evolution is not in the cards this year.

 

2015 was off the charts in terms of warm water off the coast.

The current SSTA map looks more similar at this point to 2009.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2015 was off the charts in terms of warm water off the coast.

The current SSTA map looks more similar at this point to 2009.

Definitely some near term similarities to 2009, however that one evolved in an extremely west-based/modoki El Niño, which this event is very unlikely to be. Hadley/Walker system was quite different by midsummer.

I think 1957, 1965, and 1972 are better matches in the Pacific overall, though none are perfect (lots of divergence in IO/Atlantic sector in particular).

Never thought I would be the one to argue in favor of old/outdated analogs, but this really is a bonafide cold phase/EPAC-emergent event. Crazy to see.

[Phil]

1957 followed a 3 year -ENSO cycle and was a very good match in the Pacific. Would be stupid to use it in isolation but it’s the type of pattern I’d look for.

[Phil]

And 1957 continues to have presence on the CPC Z500 supernsemble blend. And has for months now.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

And 1957 continues to have presence on the CPC Z500 supernsemble blend. And has for months now.

1990!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Checked out 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1972-73. @Phil

Up here the latter two were pretty decent. 1957-58 was a regional dud. Very wet at times though. 

1965-66 looks like it had some kind of arctic outbreak in Mid-December, SLE even had about 7.5" of snow that month, and Silver Falls had a 30/7 day. Silver Falls also recorded 15.1" of snow in March, as well as a low of 21 pretty late in the month followed by a high of 80 a few days later. 

1972-73 of course had one of the all-time arctic outbreaks in December, but also a cold January with some single digit lows. All three of those years were pretty wet in December/January. 

February 1958 had a +7.7F departure at Silver Falls. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Checked out 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1972-73. @Phil

Up here the latter two were pretty decent. 1957-58 was a regional dud. Very wet at times though. 

1965-66 looks like it had some kind of arctic outbreak in Mid-December, SLE even had about 7.5" of snow that month, and Silver Falls had a 30/7 day. Silver Falls also recorded 15.1" of snow in March, as well as a low of 21 pretty late in the month followed by a high of 80 a few days later. 

1972-73 of course had one of the all-time arctic outbreaks in December, but also a cold January with some single digit lows. All three of those years were pretty wet in December/January. 

February 1958 had a +7.7F departure at Silver Falls. 

My guess is that 80 in March 1966 is an over exposed reading or something because it was only 71 at Salem that day. Looks like SLE measured snowfall every month that winter December-March. 

@TT-SEA would have liked April 1966

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1966&month=4&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

And May.

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1966&month=5&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

[the_convergence_zone]

The 500 hPa anomalies for this one are at least as impressive as the June 2021 heat wave. Both are 4 sigma events with the high centered in almost the exact same spot. This one is bigger and has what I guess you would call a negative tilt (from NW to SE).

Fortunately this one doesn't have as impressive of a 850 hPa anomaly as 2021, much of the warming is dependent on downsloping. The 850 hPa anomalies east of the Cascades are not completely off the charts like they were in that event. Being a month off the solstice probably helps and it looks like the trajectories manage to tap into some colder air from the central Plains. There's also wildfire smoke to contend with that could knock the temps down a bit depending on how much gets pulled into the ridge. 

Overall it's a synoptic setup that would have easily delivered 100s west of the Cascades if it came almost any time in the mid-June through mid-September window. 

 

[Doinko]

Just heard some very loud thunder

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

And 1957 continues to have presence on the CPC Z500 supernsemble blend. And has for months now.

I have been noticing that 1951 has also been frequently on the list.

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF weeklies... not much new information except that it might stay warm for most of the rest of May.  

[TT-SEA]

And there is a strong dry signal over us the next 46 days.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And there is a strong dry signal over us the next 46 days.

May going to be more like July this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

May going to be more like July this year.

At over an inch of rain this would be our wettest July since 2011.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies... not much new information except that it might stay warm for most of the rest of May.  

You can think of the “white” spaces as places where negative heights are more likely to exist (since mean 500mb anoms run slightly warm).

Warm pattern in PNW should gradually degrade and come to an end sometime between Memorial Day and the first week of June, if my timing is accurate.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At over an inch of rain this would be our wettest July since 2011.

Maybe not in that way. It’s been dryer elsewhere.

[MossMan]

Interesting…

[T-Town]

Some cloud pics from Tacoma National Scenic Area. 

[Doinko]

It's been dumping rain for the past 30 minutes after some loud thunder. Really nice surprise

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

It's been dumping rain for the past 30 minutes after some loud thunder. Really nice surprise

Nice. Would be cool if something could move up this way.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some very heavy showers are popping up. They did have lightning earlier but not at the moment. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Interesting…

Sorry neighbor.

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is those showers. I'm looking towards the West.

[Phishy Wx]

looks like a coupla T-boomers popping south of here moving north

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

This is those showers. I'm looking towards the West.

Looks like they're producing lightning again. Just heard some more thunder

[Ken in Wood Village]

Those storms are producing lightning now

[Doinko]

Pretty frequent thunder again. Not as loud though

[FroYoBro]

Some big booms of thunder to my north. Haven’t been paying attention to the radar today, so this is a nice surprise! 

[Ken in Wood Village]

They are getting stronger

[Doinko]

Wow

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

They are getting stronger

More lightning

[Ken in Wood Village]

This storm is busting out lightning now I wouldn't want to be driving through this storm!!

[Ken in Wood Village]

I knew traffic would get worse because of the thunderstorm. I'm glad I'm already home