ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Nice, how far from the lake do you live?10 minute walk to the nearest public access. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Many flakes falling now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Looking on wunderground, K-Falls has even had Novembers between 4-8" of precip. Nov 1995 had 8.78"! Impressive for an arid climate. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO). So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. Okay. Jan 1950 neutral AO. January 1969 -AO. December 2008 +AO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Finally a few flakes in the air in north Bellingham. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Okay. Jan 1950 neutral AO. January 1969 -AO. December 2008 +AOExactly. And how would those months have evolved had something perturbed the AO into another state beforehand? Probably quite differently. The NPAC is a wide conduit line for meridional and vertical heat/mass/momentum flux exchange(s). Change the functional boundary conditions and you alter the progression of the waveguide/train. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Courtesy of Brian Schmidt. Very sobering list. 1978/79 wasn’t bad. Could be a sample size issue there as well since you have many different solar/QBO/warm pool states in there. Definitely some QBO influence showing up, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 1978/79 wasn’t bad. Could be a sample size issue there as well since you have many different solar/QBO/warm pool states in there. Definitely some QBO influence showing up, though. F*ck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 F*ck.In a way, this winter is like a repeat of last winter except with an opposite QBO and muted (but similarly-structured) ENSO state. Otherwise there are no meaningful differences. An interesting experiment. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Exactly. And how would those months have evolved had something perturbed the AO into another state beforehand? Probably quite differently. The NPAC is a wide conduit line for meridional and vertical heat/mass/momentum flux exchange(s). Change the functional boundary conditions and you alter the progression of the waveguide/train.I think you lost me. It matters but it doesn’t 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Already 10-15” of snow widespread over here due to this splitting regime. I think the wildcard this year may be rapidly deepening lows. How often has the west coast experienced a 970 mb low that moved NW to SE in the last 50 years? Been a strange late fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 It’s a lock. (Jim???????????????) Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I do wonder sometimes what January 1950, January 1969 and December 2008 would have been like if things had been different... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I do wonder sometimes what January 1950, January 1969 and December 2008 would have been like if things had been different...What things? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 What things?Weather. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow. A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes. This run does not even tease us. Don't your people ski at Crystal Mountain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Nah. I’m good. We’ve had great months with both positive and negative AO. And I don’t see a correlation between the AO in the months preceding thoseIf you don’t want to learn, I can’t force you. Clearly you haven’t even attempted to consider the information I’ve presented. You won’t be able to predict variations in the PNA/etc in advance if you’re relying on 1-to-1 correlations. News flash, the PNA is not an independent variable..it is dependent on factors that manipulate the NPAC wavetrain, including the antecedent state of the NAM/AO, amongst many others. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Weather.Where specifically? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 First time I have heard someone use antecedent in a sentence. In my entire 42+ years on this earth, pretty impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 About half the snow (8" at 9am) has melted! Let's thaw out these frogs. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 What things? ENSO, PDO, QBO, PNA, MJO, NAO, EPO, UHI, low solar, AO, AAM, GLAAM, MAWI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 ENSO, PDO, QBO, PNA, MJO, NAO, EPO, UHI, low solar, AO, AAM, GLAAM, MAWSI prefer the GOLU model myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 If you don’t want to learn, I can’t force you. Clearly you haven’t even attempted to consider the information I’ve presented. You won’t be able to predict variations in the PNA/etc in advance if you’re relying on 1-to-1 correlations. News flash, the PNA is not an independent variable..it is dependent on factors that manipulate the NPAC wavetrain, including the antecedent state of the NAM/AO, amongst many others.Just don’t have time now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 First time I have heard someone use antecedent in a sentence. In my entire 42+ years on this earth, pretty impressive. I believe this is what the kids refer to as telling on yourself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 ENSO, PDO, QBO, PNA, MJO, NAO, EPO, UHI, low solar, AO, AAM, GLAAM, MAWS 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I believe this is what the kids refer to as telling on yourself.He tries to wow with these big words. I used to have a friend that did this. He was insecure and wanted my approval he was smart. I told him I will figure it out without all the strange words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Where specifically?Here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Raining... and a thawing ground. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 We can’t get forecasts correct inside of 24 hours. It’s all gobbledygook in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Toasty 23 after a high of 26. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Winter starts right on cue everywhere except Medford. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year. I about wanted to scream. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year. I about wanted to scream.There is a trade off. Trust me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Getting squishy out there. Looks like the DEEP FREEZE is over...... for now?!?!!!!!!???? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 We can’t get forecasts correct inside of 24 hours. It’s all gobbledygook in the long range. You'd be surprised how well MFR did in the Jan 3-4 2017 snowstorm. Our local TV weather in Klamath is less than half great and I'm glad we have a NWS just 80 miles west of me. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year.Don’t lump us in with those inland Northeast and New England crybabies. I average a measly 20”/yr and would be satisfied with anything over 12”. We’ve only had one brief snow shower so far this season, and that was back in early November (might see a little more tomorrow but barely conversational). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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