Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Funny how much expectations shift our view of things. A month ago, hell even a week ago, we would not be calling -13c 850 temps "a downer". I think people are just, understandably, concerned about any run that slows down the actual arrival of the cold air. Getting cold air in place is always the first step for winter fun, and often the hardest. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 This is a really cold run overall. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Now we wait for King Euro. Will it finally cave? Find out more at 10:40 PST. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Some gusty south winds this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 This looks nice and all but the arctic tundra waited 24 hours to crash down on us! UGH! *axeheademoji* This is the first run that has showed no "snow hole" anywhere in the lowlands. Would be hard to complain if this came to fruition. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PNA just continues to drop farther and farther. Now nearing -7 on 1/13. EPO is dropping as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Cliff Mass focusing on mountain snow currently, but hinting at what is to come: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/massive-snowfall-and-heavy.html Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Canadian is now fully on the bandwagon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 This looks nice and all but the arctic tundra waited 24 hours to crash down on us! UGH! *axeheademoji* Even the interior lowlands "loser" has over 8" on this 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GEM is onboard. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Maybe this is just the gfs trying to move towards a more realistic solution in the mid range? It was pretty hard for me to believe I'd see it get down to 5 degrees at night at my house. I'd take more snow for less dry Arctic cold. Either way these details are going to change several times likely...too early to even speculate. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Overall things look positive still. Still have faith this pattern will deliver. Not a bad overnight shift...will have to see how this goes with developing a consensus with the other major models over the next few days. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like the passes are still getting nuked this morning. Even the lower ones like Snoqualmie and Government Camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Lots of possibilities in the 7-10 period. Most of them look snowy for parts of the lowlands. Gotta love that. Ideally, things start off well over the weekend (hell, maybe even a few favored places later this week) with the initial Arctic front making good progress south and just enough energy over the water to spin up a snowy surface low or two. Definitely a little concerning to see the GFS still mostly on its own with the weekend progression...should be an interesting test case for the upgrades made in 2019. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like the passes are still getting nuked this morning. Even the lower ones like Snoqualmie and Government Camp. Hood area snowpack is now 36% of normal. Still low, but just a few days ago it was 25%. The forecast for the mountains looks excellent so right now there is zero reason to be concerned about lack of snowpack. Also, Meadows has finally reached a 50" base and conditions have been powder for the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Great article over at KOMO this morning ; https://komonews.com/news/local/stormy-this-week-then-seasons-first-arctic-blast-coming-next We got called out! If you’ve been monitoring social media the past few days and you follow any local weather geeks, you've likely heard the chatter about a potential cold and snowy pattern setting up for the week of Jan. 12. We've been monitoring it with amusement because we see these "oooh! Look at all the cold air" patterns out 10-15 days in the winter all the time and they usually disappear when as the days gets closer. Remember the snowflakes on your app a week or so ago for snow on Jan. 4-6? How much snow are you shoveling today? **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Canadian is now fully on the bandwagon 12zgem010620.png Much warmer than the GFS for Sat night - Monday, though. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive. Cascade Locks!!! Jan 1950!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Don't ever post on this, big lurker. But Kuchera snowfall is even more impressive. Kuchera is suppose to be more accurate as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PNA just continues to drop farther and farther. Now nearing -7 on 1/13. EPO is dropping as well. Yeah, EPO has definitely trended lower. Will be key if things are to get really cold. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z GFS compared to the 12z UKMET at day 6. The UKMET shows the trough for this weekend dig in deeper and doesn't slide east as much. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Kuchera is suppose to be more accurate as well. GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically. Particularly over long periods of time. They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Much warmer than the GFS for Sat night - Monday, though. The airmass gets hung up and actually creeps around from the WNW on the GEM. Pretty funky. It will probably keep trending towards the rock steady GFS anyways, but the important thing is that the models showing significant arctic air are now outnumbering the models that aren't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Glad to see the GFS 12z trend north with those shortwaves and also a much more favorable storm track with the big storm mid next week. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Getting hard to ignore the crazy totals being shown. Last feb showed this and look what happened. Not saying it will but this is the only 2 times i have ever saw these high totals shown over and over. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Hood area snowpack is now 36% of normal. Still low, but just a few days ago it was 25%. The forecast for the mountains looks excellent so right now there is zero reason to be concerned about lack of snowpack. Also, Meadows has finally reached a 50" base and conditions have been powder for the last several days. Going to guess that hasn't updated for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically. Particularly over long periods of time. They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.In general, model snow maps are useless as they are fixed on a 10:1 ratio that doesn’t reflect how dynamics impact snowfall ratios. Those maps are just good to get an idea of where there will fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically. Particularly over long periods of time. They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS. 2/25/19 being an exception. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Finally gave my brother a hint and sent him that crazy snow total map his response.. FUCKKK 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 We got called out! If you’ve been monitoring social media the past few days and you follow any local weather geeks, you've likely heard the chatter about a potential cold and snowy pattern setting up for the week of Jan. 12. We've been monitoring it with amusement because we see these "oooh! Look at all the cold air" patterns out 10-15 days in the winter all the time and they usually disappear when as the days gets closer. Remember the snowflakes on your app a week or so ago for snow on Jan. 4-6? How much snow are you shoveling today? I never put much faith in those model runs (and neither did most people here) The difference is that those runs in late December were just a few runs. We’ve had way more than that showing the possibilities of an arctic blast this weekend and next week. This time is different. It’s not obviously just a few random outlier runs. It’s a distinct possibility. Not a certainty, but certainly a possibility. And this is a weather geek discussion forum, not a weather forecasting service. Speculative discussions come with the territory. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Even CLIFFMASS is dipping his toes in the water. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/01/massive-snowfall-and-heavy.html?m=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Would be surprised if this actually accumulates in the lowlands outside of maybe the convergence zone, but shows temperatures will be right on the edge. Most of the sea level stuff falls early Thursday morning. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The airmass gets hung up and actually creeps around from the WNW on the GEM. Pretty funky. It will probably keep trending towards the rock steady GFS anyways, but the important thing is that the models showing significant arctic air are now outnumbering the models that aren't.Yeah, definitely not a slam dunk for Arctic air at this point, but looking a lot more likely than 2-3 days ago. They being said, would probably be wise to expect that the GFS solutions past day 7 are probably too cold - unless the other models start showing the same thing. Have to remember, the GFS runs from a few days ago were overall too cold for what now appears likely later this week. None of this means it won't eventually get really cold - any time you have blocking in the region this block is forming that's possible. But at this point, it's probable that the GFS is rushing things a bit, or generally just running a little too cold in the mid/long range. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GEM gives W. Washington a huge snow storm the middle of next week. Probably mixes PDX out way too fast... Also looks a lot more progressive, like the low is just going to move on through and all the cold air behind it will just pour on in. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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