Winterdog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 According to this map it’s a good thing I moved back in 2018!Yeah it looks like I'm in the 3 to 4" range myself. Being quite a ways east of I-5 offsets a lot of elevation. I'm under 300' which is nearly 200' lower than Sea-Tac but kick Sea-Tac's butt most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Portland is even more impressive in the LR. 10 days in the 20s. January 1930 redux?! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I wouldn't worry too much about the east wind precip inhibition being shown on this run for the ESPL later next week. We have no idea how the low will track yet. The 12z Euro run showed plenty for us. Besides I'm really liking what I'm seeing for snow at the very beginning of the event anyway. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. I really hope that changes. 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ECMWF 00z looking better for Seattle late Sunday night and early Monday morning. C-zone develops behind the low. EPSL does very well with backwash behind lows taking the track shown on the GFS. Haven't seen the Euro yet. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Low is a bit further southI wouldn't mind that if it helps build a stronger cold pool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 splitting hairs but that’s rain at pdx Whatever it is, yeah it is 0 snow. Switches to all rain during the day as temps warm. I think if the low tracks just right there could be a shot Monday night-Tuesday of stickage but otherwise all hope is probably on Wednesday for PDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 So close, need that sucker to come a little further south. Still an improvement with the low over the previous ECMWF runs and very close to what the GFS is showing now. One thing seems clear, East Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely nailed with that Sunday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. A solid 2" to 2.5" over me. Like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. Wow. Now I just went from 4" on the WRF to a half inch on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. That is a very strong Convergence Zone signature along the arctic front. Experience tells us those usually form initially further North than modeled and tend to hang around and slide South slower than modeled. Would benefit most of us if that holds true this time. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Winter cancelled. Going back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. My house does good alot of times when these c-zones drop down south. Good news for me. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ECMWF out to 120hr looks much stronger with the offshore low at the same longitude than it did from yesterday's 00z run. Also the PV isn't as far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 That is a very strong Convergence Zone signature along the arctic front. Experience tells us those usually form initially further North than modeled and tend to hang around and slide South slower than modeled. Would benefit most of us if that holds true this time. I think that will behave more like a traditional c-zone behind a departing low. Its not a traditional arctic front. The c-zone will just form in its usual spot and move south and then dissolve. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Winter cancelled. Going back to bedI'm with you on that.. ehh, well you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think that will behave more like a traditional c-zone behind a departing low. Its not a traditional arctic front. The c-zone will just form in its usual spot and move south and then dissolve.Hopefully it forms over my house like it usually does. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Regional event early Wednesday morning. ECMWF has moved up the time frame quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ECMWF shows a high of only 24 in Seattle on Tuesday... and basically dry. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Regional event early Wednesday morning. ECMWF has moved up the time frame quite a bit.Here she comes! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ECMWF shows a high of only 24 in Seattle on Tuesday... and basically dry.And lows in the teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think that will behave more like a traditional c-zone behind a departing low. Its not a traditional arctic front. The c-zone will just form in its usual spot and move south and then dissolve.So what you are saying is you already have the front resolved even before the models. Get the **** out of here. Lol 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Backdoor blast reaches PDX at the same time as the 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Colder at 850mb too. Yeah, trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Doesn't look like the euro has turned this system toothless like the 00z GFS did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 And lows in the teens?probably colder for lows in some spots. 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 So what you are saying is you already have the front resolved even before the models. Get the **** out of here. I am telling you that precip signature that pounds the Cascades and foothills is due strong onshore flow behind the departing low. And it will be the usual wavering c-zone situation and not a single band of precip moving southward. That low is pulling down cold air... but the strong onshore flow is what is driving the precip behind the low. With a true arctic front... there is less precip in the foothills and Cascades. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Uh....trended south, apparently... "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Big pdx snow maker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think that will behave more like a traditional c-zone behind a departing low. Its not a traditional arctic front. The c-zone will just form in its usual spot and move south and then dissolve.How do you figure? Looks like a fairly similar setup as other Arctic Front/CZ's we've seen recently (11/27/06, 1/10/07, 12/18/08, 11/22/10, etc.) I can't remember a single time when an incoming arctic blast set off a CZ around or South of Seattle without giving snow to Skagit or Snohomish County first and I remember many times when it took longer to slip South than modeled. No guarantee that will be the case this time, but I'm just interested in your rationale. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro seems to be incapable of keeping the cold in the eastern part of the Columbia Basin for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 North valley special. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Drier so far for sure12z vs 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I am telling you that precip signature that pounds the Cascades and foothills is due strong onshore flow behind the departing low. And it will be the usual wavering c-zone situation and not a single band of precip moving southward. That low is pulling down cold air... but the strong onshore flow is what is driving the precip behind the low. With a true arctic front... there is less precip in the foothills and Cascades. It's both. Almost every moist arctic front is proceeded by strong onshore flow that gives the foothills and Cascades a bunch of snow. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Seattle is going to see a cold blast for sure. So jelly Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 That surface low just spins up on Wednesday morning in place. Its not really moving in... the precip just forms rapidly in an arc. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 24 hr precip 12z vs 00z. This is pretty much exactly what the 00z GFS also did. Much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 MULTIBALL except with lows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I mean....still fine, but the gutting of the precip is a bad sign. Better hope that quits. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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