Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

I foresee an OR/WA civil war on the board where the OR posters have to make their own page for a while.

That would make me feel small, devalued, and alone.  Might start thinking dark thoughts if we did that.  I need Nancy Pelosi to stand up for me and give me reason to look at maps again with my friends. 

[FroYoBro]

Looks warm.

[Cloud]

Monday 4pm

TY. Just realize 00z Tuesday is 4pm Monday PST

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seasonably cool.

[Omegaraptor]

My sons are heading up to Snoqualmie Summit this morning.   I told them they have to stay together.

 

A really good friend of theirs lost his dad last year on a day like this... fell into a tree well.   He was an expert skier for 30 years.   Texted his wife at the top of the run and said it was his last run and he would be home soon.   Never made it to the bottom.

Wow. That is a truly sad and terrifying story.

 

Since I’m with my HS ski team today I’ll always be together with someone. Avalanche danger is very high as well. We always get the deep snow safety lecture on days like these, and for very good reason.

[Prairiedog]

Just read through the NWS 3:30am discussion.  Looks almost identical to yesterdays except for the front that just moved through.  Looks to me like they didn't bother looking at last nights model runs. 

 

Forecast details Wed and beyond become more fuzzy. Forecast
confidence is reasonably high that some degree of frozen/freezing
precip event will occur Wed-Thu across at least the north half of
the forecast area. The 12Z ECWMF shows the aforementioned surface
low moving near 125W by 00Z Thu, while the GFS holds it near 130W.
In any event, offshore low-level flow will persist through the Gorge
during the period. Snowfall for the northern Willamette valley and
western Clark County Wed-Thu could be anywhere from a couple inches
to several inches. The NBM (Blend of Models) suggests a 25th
percentile 24-hr snowfall amount valid 00Z Fri of a couple inches.
The 50th percentile value jumps up to 4 to 9 inches and the 90th
percentile amount is nearly a foot. Thus, a wide range of
possibilities, especially regarding the surface low placement. There
is a fairly large range of individual ECMWF solutions within the
ensembles. The GFS brings the surface low between KONP and KTMK
shortly after 00Z Fri, which is more south and at least 6 hours
slower than the ECMWF. To add even more uncertainty to the
situation, some ECMWF members show another surface low nearing 130W
Fri. If this verifies, the low elevation snow threat will continue.
Forecast details will continue to change over the next few days.
Weishaar

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday is looking like a Hood Canal special with strong offshore flow.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low looks like a good location for SLE-PDX except the airmass is to warm for snow below 1000', snow level may actually briefly jump to 2000-2500' Monday night. LOL. Midweek system is nothing now down here. At least I will get some snow showers from it in cold onshore flow. 

[Cloud]

Low went straight thru SEA on this run. Look like a snowier run.

[Blizzard777]

Crystal Mountain overnight snow!

 

[TT-SEA]

Thursday morning still looks the same...

 

[Randyc321]

Yeah, you Western WA people should be just fine and dandy like usual. Same can’t be said for this garbage city.

 

We are all free to live where we want.  I wasn't born here, but it's what I wanted as far as a climate.  If you aren't happy, move.  I still think we have the best overall climate in the country.  I am not into hot summers, or humidity, or both together.  

[TT-SEA]

And then a Randy special on Thursday evening!

 

[Cloud]

12z showing another snow maker for Puget Sound next Saturday, although this looks to be the overrunning event?

Both systems look to be overrunning. The midweek system does an ok job scouring out the cold. The weekend system will finish the job.

[Omegaraptor]

Winds are absolutely blasting here, 55-60 MPH gusts with blowing snow. Come on up KI2!

[Weather1011]

I foresee an OR/WA civil war on the board where the OR posters have to make their own page for a while.

Always thought they should have a separate page

[Jesse]

Catching up on the last day or so of comments has been fun! There are some interesting personalities that surface on here when things go belly up...to say the least.

 

I'm pretty excited for the fact that there is still a pretty good shot at winter weather somewhere in the lowlands next week. Meanwhile the ongoing Cascade snowstorm and big swells on the ocean are pretty cool. Heading to the coast later today.

[TT-SEA]

Winds are absolutely blasting here, 55-60 MPH gusts with blowing snow. Come on up KI2!

 

 

That would suck!   That is a huge advantage at Snoqualmie Summit... its rarely ever windy up there because its in a protected valley and not exposed.

[TT-SEA]

Both systems look to be overrunning. The midweek system does an ok job scouring out the cold. The weekend system will finish the job.

 

 

No doubt... next weekend is trending way warmer still.

 

[umadbro]

So glad I never bought in to it all during the last 2 weeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

In other weather related news...we're at 3.73" of rain for January. 9.95" of rain since 12/18. We're on a 12 day rainfall streak now and 23 out of the last 25 days have had rain.

[Weather1011]

This is beautiful

[MossMan]

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

So glad I never bought in to it all during the last 2 weeks.

 

You are brilliant. We are so naive.

[TacomaWaWx]

This is beautiful

lol you really dont have anything better to do than troll people on a weather forum?

[MossMan]

A short lived event similar to 2012...As long as it doesn’t trend any worse it should still be a good little event for W. Wa.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe my sons are not going skiing after all... the pass is now closed.   There was a 2-hour back-up a little while ago.

[TacomaWaWx]

A short lived event similar to 2012...As long as it doesn’t trend any worse it should still be a good little event for W. Wa.

Yeah should turn out good for most people north of Centralia im guessing. Not too much time for it to trend worse for us. The next 3 days probably aren't going to change dramatically for Western WA in a bad way.

[Weather1011]

[TacomaWaWx]

Maybe my sons are not going skiing after all... the pass is now closed.   There was a 2-hour back-up a little while ago.

friend of mine wrecked his 4 runner on the pass yesterday. Said it was absolutely gnarly up there.

[TT-SEA]

friend of mine wrecked his 4 runner on the pass yesterday. Said it was absolutely gnarly up there.

 

How?   Did he get hit?

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah should turn out good for most people north of Centralia im guessing. Not too much time for it to trend worse for us. The next 3 days probably aren't going to change dramatically for Western WA in a bad way.

Canadian continues the theme bringing that system after Sunday right up the mouth of the Columbia. Could turn snowy for Puget Sound.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'm not allowed to like warm weather? Sounds like a dictatorship down here

lol. I've already wasted too much time talking to you happy trolling to you!

[Weather1011]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yeah should turn out good for most people north of Centralia im guessing. Not too much time for it to trend worse for us. The next 3 days probably aren't going to change dramatically for Western WA in a bad way.

“It is never too late for a last-minute rug pull.” — Me

[TacomaWaWx]

How?   Did he get hit?

yeah I think he got hit by someone else up there headed eastbound around towards Easton.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is beautiful

Normal Weather. lol. Not really beautiful -- You my friend are totally trolling. No one would ever stop you from saying you love 50 degree rain, but if you're honest, you would be on here posting every week of the winter with enthusiasm, because that my friend is what we have about 80% of our winters here. It is all good but your real intention is to troll. Period!

[MossMan]

Anyone have total snowfall maps from the GFS for Puget Sound?

[TacomaWaWx]

Normal Weather. lol. Not really beautiful -- You my friend are totally trolling. No one would ever stop you from saying you love 50 degree rain, but if you're honest, you would be on here posting every week of the winter with enthusiasm, because that my friend is what we have about 80% of our winters here. It is all good but your real intention is to troll. Period!

its obviously someone's alternate account. Probably one of the main members on the forum. Probably best to just ignore them since they really have nothing better to do than try and mess with people.

[jakerepp]