Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Deweydog]

Is this a Matt post or a serious lawyer post?

Both.

[Blizzard777]

WOW... huge improvement on the NAM for the puget sound. Will this verify?!! Dunno.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh1-31.gif

We should like this to verify!

[MossMan]

With my extrapolation ruler out it almost appears the PNA might try again at the end of the month.

[MossMan]

Both.

Okay is this a Tim post or a Jim post?

[El_Nina]

Fun watching this really slow transition. It is mostly snow now but we're still 36

[DamascusGuy]

It’s been snowing in Damascus for the last 30 minutes. 35* and nothing sticking. Elevation is 751 feet

[MossMan]

Yes. The MJO becomes unfavorable for a few weeks but mid-February presents another opportunity.

No! Too late! I’m in Mexico in mid February!

[Deweydog]

Okay is this a Tim post or a Jim post?

It’s really amazing that there’s really only one letter separating those two cooky characters.

 

I have no idea what the EPS shows. I depend on Tim for that.

[Phil]

The east coast has a lot more going for it. Favorable baroclinic boundary setup due to the Gulf Stream, Cold air damming, Overrunning, Clippers, etc. Here you need to thread a needle.

Well, I’ve had a grand total of 2.2” of slop all winter and just experienced a 73*F day with a nocturnal thunderstorm in the middle of January. So..we haven’t exactly tapped into that potential yet.

 

Many folks on this forum have done much better than us in the winter department to this point.

[MossMan]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z gfs picking up on what the meso models show for tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to believe with all the models technology a surprise snowfall can show up within 24hrs. Gfs looks good for Portland also.

[Phil]

No! Too late! I’m in Mexico in mid February!

In that case it will definitely happen, lol.

 

I’m officially on board.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z gfs picking up on what the meso models show for tonight.

 

As if to add insult to injury that low should keep onshore southerly flow going even longer/stronger in NW Oregon. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am not trying to pull a Snowwiz but I have a very strong feeling the entire puget sound is going to get some serious decent snow tonight. This setup is excellent for us, and current radar images match what the NAM is showing perfectly at this hour. IT IS COMING PUGET SOUNDERS.. Even the swamp should get in on this one!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Through 10PM...

 

 

By 4 AM... Backwash from the low crossing the Central Cascades...

 

Honestly, I would don't be surprised if we will get more snow than that!

[GHweatherChris]

Tonight could be fun fornme as well!! My daughter was pissed she had school today lol, I will be showing her how to look at models tonight so she knows what I go through!

[MossMan]

Through 10PM...

 

 

By 4 AM... Backwash from the low crossing the Central Cascades...

 

Was hoping this was going to look a little better up here...but at least I don’t look to be completely skunked.

[jakerepp]

Looks like it's been snowing at my parents old place all D**n day...wish I could drive out there tonight to check it out 

[HoodCanalBridge]

These maps yesterday even leading up to the snow seemed to show North Kitsap areas in a shadow. Turns out we were hit with 3-7”.

 

Maps are again showing a shadow. Is this due to different set up? Do the maps struggle predicting CZ?

 

Signed, the amateur’s amateur

[Blizzard777]

I better get 10 inches from this or I'll be pissed

Let the record show I made this post for my big day! Of course I was expecting a lot colder! 

 

[Requiem]

Hmm, let's see if Portland can get anything out of this week. The models sure have turned for us, to say the least. I knew that Puget Sound would do better, but not by this much.

[wxmet]

Wow, where in MD? I live in Cabin John and 12”+ storms aren’t *that* common here..1 every 3 years maybe, with mediocre or crappy winters in between. Every now and then we’ll fail to reach 4” for an entire winter, lol.

Feast/famine. When it goes big, it goes huge, but when it sucks, it really blows chunks.

Silver spring. “Used to” maybe be a bit of an exaggeration but compared to here it’s way less of a struggle to get moisture when the cold air arrives or is already in place.

[HighlandExperience]

Through 10PM...

 

 

By 4 AM... Backwash from the low crossing the Central Cascades...

 

Looks nice. Hope kuchera ratio is good though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like precip is winding down across NW Oregon. Should get home from work as the snow is stopping. 

[Randyc321]

The Sound is filling in. 

[Requiem]

Looks like precip is winding down across NW Oregon. Should get home from work as the snow is stopping. 

 

Wow. Wasn't there supposed to be more that actually stuck in higher elevations later on?

[Deweydog]

Hmm, let's see if Portland can get anything out of this week. The models sure have turned for us, to say the least. I knew that Puget Sound would do better, but not by this much.

Aside from some localized stuff the Puget Sound hasn’t exactly been in a snow globe thus far.

 

And chances are we’re going to see some light snow Wednesday evening and overnight.

 

Try yoga.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Wasn't there supposed to be more that actually stuck in higher elevations later on?

 

If there is any precip later. But looking at radar it is definitely winding down. 

[Requiem]

If there is any precip later. But looking at radar it is definitely winding down. 

 

Still holding out for a dusting at my area (which is supposedly the best for snow)...

[Blizzard777]

I am assuming around 5-7pm things should get rolling in many places. Maybe sooner maybe later.

I really no want to relive last night again please! 

[El_Nina]

Looks like it's the yearly precip runs out as it gets cold enough scenario. This one isn't delivering a last minute dusting though.

[Randyc321]

74 in Boston yesterday seems warm.

 

They sure torched like 1950...

 

And partied like 1999

[Blizzard777]

Winds just flipped to north at I-90, 80 minutes after shift at 520. Front moving south very slowly at only a couple of miles per hour right now. 

someone could let it know we do have carpool lanes! 

let’s get a move on!!! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Snow from this morning is gone. 36 and cloudy here. Things looking really good for tonight. We've had 1/2" on 1/9 and 1/2" on 1/13 now good for 1" total in January. Thinking we will get more than an inch tonight and there should be snow on the ground tonight through Wednesday.

[jakerepp]

Jaya mentioned the RGEM was showing this feature as well so decided to take a look at it.

 

Here are totals by 10AM tomorrow...

 

Go North

[Chewbacca Defense]

Might be lightly snowing. Might not be. Honestly, it's hard to tell with the wind blowing. Looks like maybe some medium-size flakes mixed in with the smaller particles, so I'm going with snowing.

Yeah it very well could be.  We’ve had a few showers break through the outflow here in Bellingham.  They have been brief, but one got pretty heavy.  Looks like there will be more opportunities in the coming hours.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty awesome that this winter is delivering here. That's 4 winter's in a row with measurable snowfall. Sure it's not the February 2019 redux we all thought it could be but it's quite exciting and fun!

[Jesse]

1600'!

I always thought it was 1,528.

[Randyc321]

Is this a Matt post or a serious lawyer post?

 

 

Both.

 

Conflicting reports