FroYoBro Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Stupid comment. It does not matter much to me... snow melts fast in mid-March. If the EPS shows it then I will start believing it might happen.Stupid comment. Everyone knows how inaccurate the EPS is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 I’m glad someone is keeping tabs on stupid comments around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Stupid comment. Everyone knows how inaccurate the EPS is. Yeah... no. The only time it locked in all winter is when it actually happened for at least part of the region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Tonight could be frosty for many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 I’m glad someone is keeping tabs on stupid comments around here.Not an easy job. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just saw the first bee of 2020! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 12Z EPS just finished loading on WB... definitely colder in the 10-15 day range. 5-10 day mean: 10-15 day mean: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just saw the first bee of 2020! There were bees in our yard last week... probably active today as well. Nice to see. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Current state of cherry blossoms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 1837204F-D705-45BB-8158-9A16F443D4CB.jpeg 64FB6C5F-EBD6-4A51-A8F7-1C72D45EB3B1.jpeg Current state of cherry blossoms. Pretty stupid comment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 OMG 18z GFS Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Looks like the ensembles are taking a step back. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Alaska. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Alaska. Coldest winter in Fairbanks since 1999. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Coldest winter in Fairbanks since 1999.They should party like it’s 2020. But skip the abuse of prescription medication... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 It's March 4th and my windows are open Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 1837204F-D705-45BB-8158-9A16F443D4CB.jpeg 64FB6C5F-EBD6-4A51-A8F7-1C72D45EB3B1.jpeg Current state of cherry blossoms. Nice pics. In a few weeks some of the downtown trees in KF will start doing that. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2020 Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Nice day 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Nice dayYou know what. It was nice Andrew. It was nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 55/37 here with mostly sunny conditions. Pretty day out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 63/18. Having some dejavu here.. 63. 18. Familiar. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 May the 4th be with you! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 May the 4th be with you! My gif is from a storm dated May 4th in 2016 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Got some pics of the SHOCKINGLY early cherry/plum tree bloom around town today.They always look very pretty against a clear blue sky. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 0.00” of rainfall today...Incredible! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 0.00” of rainfall today...Incredible! we’ve had 0.04” this month so far. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 It certinly appears there is growing potential for a very rare post March 10 Arctic outbreak. We have now had three consecutive ECMWF operational runs showing the classic Arctic outbreak pattern late in the run and the 12z EPS was worlds better than previous runs. The scope and intensity of the blocking progged over the GOA / Aleutians is exceptional on all recent GFS runs as well. The feature that seems to be sealing the deal on the ECMWF is the cutoff low that develops NW of Hawaii early next week. A feature that has been absent on some GFS runs, but shows up well on the 12z EPS. If the details go perfectly with this an historic event is pretty possible. Even with details just going somewhat well we could easily see a week of -4 to -7F temperature departures. Going to be fun to see how things look in a couple of days. In the shorter term even the cold snap this weekend and early next week looks pretty nippy with some lowland snow a good possibility. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 we’ve had 0.04” this month so far.I’ve had 1.70” so far for the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 I’ve had 1.70” so far for the month.Hmmm...you must live in a wet spot. Tell us more! Hopefully we can get the groundskeeper at the Hoh Ranger station to start chiming in from time to time too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 This is just to show what is possible post March 10 and that we can get a real event that late. Very luckily an observer kept records in Seattle (on the shores of Lake Washington) for parts of 1870 and 1871. They captured the most insane late cold and snow event for this area going back to at least 1850. It simply amazes me a location right on Lake Washington was able to drop to 14 so deep into March. For protected areas away from the water single digits would have been inevitable with this. I also have records for San Juan Island for March 1870 and they had one day during the event with a 2pm temperature of 17F! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Hmmm...you must live in a wet spot. Tell us more! Hopefully we can get the groundskeeper at the Hoh Ranger station to start chiming in from time to time too.Tell you more...Hmmm...My ground is soggy. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 This is just to show what is possible post March 10 and that we can get a real event that late. Very luckily an observer kept records in Seattle (on the shores of Lake Washington) for parts of 1870 and 1871. They captured the most insane late cold and snow event for this area going back to at least 1850. It simply amazes me a location right on Lake Washington was able to drop to 14 so deep into March. For protected areas away from the water single digits would have been inevitable with this. I also have records for San Juan Island for March 1870 and they had one day during the event with a 2pm temperature of 17F!You’re gonna freak the kid out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 You’re gonna freak the kid out. He needs to learn sometime! One of the things I like about this climate is it's ability to do a jaw dropper every so often. A major cold snap after the first week of March would be a personal first for me. Let's hope it happens! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 I don't think I remember any arctic blasts in March even in this area. Would be something different to have. I've had a couple snowy Marches but really cold highs? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 It certinly appears there is growing potential for a very rare post March 10 Arctic outbreak. We have now had three consecutive ECMWF operational runs showing the classic Arctic outbreak pattern late in the run and the 12z EPS was worlds better than previous runs. The scope and intensity of the blocking progged over the GOA / Aleutians is exceptional on all recent GFS runs as well. The feature that seems to be sealing the deal on the ECMWF is the cutoff low that develops NW of Hawaii early next week. A feature that has been absent on some GFS runs, but shows up well on the 12z EPS. If the details go perfectly with this an historic event is pretty possible. Even with details just going somewhat well we could easily see a week of -4 to -7F temperature departures. Going to be fun to see how things look in a couple of days. In the shorter term even the cold snap this weekend and early next week looks pretty nippy with some lowland snow a good possibility. Certainly encouraging to see the recent Euro runs. However, we all know how every long range promise of snow has worked out this winter. The GFS does seem to show the stratospheric PV moving from Alaska to north-central Canada in long range, as Phil was talking about. At that point, a dynamic FW could make a late season blast happen. Although not likely, it is a possibility. Let's watch the models closely over the next several days and see what happens. I'm not too knowledgeable on how PSCZs work, do you think this weekend's trough has potential to form one? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 00z GFS is running! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 GFS GFS GFS GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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