Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 12z Euro looks pretty splitty overall. At least CA might finally start to catch up on rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 A long string of sunny, warm days per the 12Z ECMWF beginning Monday... most days will probably be close to 60 or warmer in the Seattle area. As of now it shows this continuing right through next weekend. But the pattern has been cold weekends and nice work weeks lately so we will see. If the 12Z ECMWF is right... some places will be close to 70 by next weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Still looking at about 2-5" up here Friday night/Saturday AM. I cannot see anywhere below 500' getting more than a sloppy 1/2" just too warm. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 A long string of sunny, warm days per the 12Z ECMWF beginning Monday... most days will probably be close to 60 or warmer in the Seattle area. As of now it shows this continuing right through next weekend. But the pattern has been cold weekends and nice work weeks lately so we will see. If the 12Z ECMWF is right... some places will be close to 70 by next weekend. Kind of interesting how we could go from upper 30s to around 40 for highs and then possibly into the upper 60s a week later. Last winter had a pretty dynamic changing of the seasons as well....38 for a high temp on 3/8 and then up to 70 10 days later. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Kind of interesting how we could go from upper 30s to around 40 for highs and then possibly into the upper 60s a week later. Last winter had a pretty dynamic changing of the seasons as well....38 for a high temp on 3/8 and then up to 70 10 days later. In 2011 the place I used to live in Oklahoma set an all-time record low of -28 on February 10th. By the 18th they had highs in the mid-80s with lows in the 60s! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 WaterPNormWRCC-NW.pngShockingly wet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Nobody said that the rainy season as a whole has been shockingly wet. But it has been wetter than normal for most of western WA. The WRCC map is just wrong for the area between Seattle and Olympia.. for reasons stated before. Even OLM is still wetter than normal for the rainy season. Although that WRCC map does feed the drought narrative for some on here... its bad data up here but it looks scary! Oregon is a different story... genuinely dry there. Also worth noting that the driest weather in western WA was back in October and November and that is pretty meaningless now given how wet its been since mid-December. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Man, you two have been beating the same topic to death for years now. 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 First world problems. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Man, you two have been beating the same topic to death for years now. It just pisses Jesse off that the same part of the "region" continues to be wetter than normal. I have tried to break it down better lately because regional statements often don't fit. This year is another good example. I have also added signature in my footer stating this. But I guess its easier for him to just mock the people that live in the wetter than normal areas rather than look at the actual data. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Nobody said that the rainy season as a whole has been shockingly wet. But it has been wetter than normal for most of western WA. The WRCC map is just wrong for the area between Seattle and Olympia.. for reasons stated before. Even OLM is still wetter than normal for the rainy season. Although that WRCC map does feed the drought narrative for some on here... its bad data up here but it looks scary! Oregon is a different story... genuinely dry there. Also worth noting that the driest weather in western WA was back in October and November and that is pretty meaningless now given how wet its been since mid-December. We know the map is not totally accurate in every area. Big picture, it's fairly close. Also, to the bolded: looking like October, November, and now March will end up pretty dry. That's half the rainy season. Doesn't make any sense to claim it's meaningless, given that it's all part of the water year. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Wasn’t that long ago when our Canadian friends were looking at 8+ inches for this “event”.Euro and GEM showed over 20” here a few days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 We know the map is not totally accurate in every area. Big picture, it's fairly close. Also, to the bolded: looking like October, November, and now March will end up pretty dry. That's half the rainy season. Doesn't make any sense to claim it's meaningless, given that it's all part of the water year.Not meaningless from a stat perspective. But from a water supply perspective it is now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Raindrops just tested positive on the splat test here. 40F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Local forecasts from Environment Canada indicates an inch or so of snow here tomorrow morning (2-4cm) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 GFS ensembles were decent. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 So many models look great and of course EURO comes in with absolutely zilch— story of Portland weather right there. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 15-day precip anomaly per the 12Z EPS. Nature is finally flipping the script along the West Coast with CA wetter than normal and WA drier than normal. As usual... Oregon follows CA when its dry there and then WA when its dry there. Ridiculous. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Snow is coming! ... WOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Looks like everyone in the WV was below freezing this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Looks like the nam finally caved to the other models on big snow potential here. I’d actually given up on it the other day. Put my snowblower away for the season on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Looks like the nam finally caved to the other models on big snow potential here. I’d actually given up on it the other day. Put my snowblower away for the season on Tuesday.Yeah just saw that. Really sad because it was a great setup there for a couple of days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Snow is coming! ... WOWCongrats! We will get nothing here but chilly temps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Despite it looking like spring out there it is pretty chilly. Feels continental. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Rooting for you PDXers. You've been waiting. Yeah it'll be March slop but it's better than nothing. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Congrats! We will get nothing here but chilly tempsI'm not sure if I'll see any, but someone, somewhere is definitely going to see snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 ICON caved— every model on board for some flurries. Can’t believe EURO decided to just flop like that while every other model improved. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Flurries! Furies? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 18z GFS starting to back off a little bit on that frontogenesis to the NE of the low. Still fairly good result but much less precip now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 18z GFS starting to back off a little bit on that frontogenesis to the NE of the low. Still fairly good result but much less precip now. That’s definitely more realistic. EURO is concerning though. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 ICON caved— every model on board for some flurries. Can’t believe EURO decided to just flop like that while every other model improved.Check the RGEM if you want a treat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 That’s definitely more realistic. EURO is concerning though.It may be realistic at your elevation, but I do think even an inch would be considered quite successful at the lowest elevations. I think 1-3 inches looks like a reasonable bet for you and maybe non accumulating snow or a trace is the most likely outcome for the rest. I'm not complaining given the time of year and how low our bar is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 As my Dad who hated the East wind and Cold would always say, "We are one day closer to Spring!" Rest in peace, Pops. The sun is out. A Robin is currently waltzing through the front yard trying to detect worms. I'm breathing. My family is healthy. My Cat's asleep. My knee is just tolerable enough to allow me to walk. No complaints! Fish Sticks and baked potato for dinner. No complaints. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Check the RGEM if you want a treat. Yeah the GEM and RGEM are the most aggressive with snow here now but I expect they will back off on the precip amounts in the same way the Euro and GFS have now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 15-day precip anomaly per the 12Z EPS. Nature is finally flipping the script along the West Coast with CA wetter than normal and WA drier than normal. As usual... Oregon follows CA when its dry there and then WA when its dry there. Ridiculous. Back to the stupid Rex Block Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 My yard is mud free. It's actually kind of crispy. Btw, can we cancel the rest of 2020 plz. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Nice day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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