May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really beautiful day up here.

[Jesse]

The super Niña can’t start soon enough.

Looking forward to this place freaking out after one cooler than normal summer in a sea of torches. Even if it ends up torching here, I’ll derive enough satisfaction from the Timplosion to survive.

Yeah, when you are living in a world where a two degree above average month in the warm season feels like a cold month, I’d imagine even average would be a shock to the system. Not to mention an actual below average month.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, when you are living in a world where a two degree above average month in the warm season feels like a cold month, I’d imagine even average would be a shock to the system. Not to mention an actual below average month.

There is hope. When do those new 30 year averages come out?

[Phil]

[Omegaraptor]

Right at the southern edge of the muck. Yay.

[TT-SEA]

Nobody is shocked about this month.

 

That is just Jesse being super-concerned about people's perceptions of the weather rather than just focusing on the weather itself.   

[Phil]

[Jesse]

There is hope. When do those new 30 year averages come out?

Not sure. But could work in our favour.

[Omegaraptor]

February and March have actually cooled in the new 1991-20 normals. Every other month should warm, however.

[MossMan]

Looks like today will be mow day!

[ShawniganLake]

Beautiful day. Sunny skies with some clouds building over the hills to my west.

[Phil]

February and March have actually cooled in the new 1991-20 normals. Every other month should warm, however.

Interesting, similar story here. Almost all of the warming is focused in the July - December period, with outrageous warming during December in particular..more-so than any other month. Could see averages jump 4°F+ in the 1991-2020 averages for December, which is downright ridiculous.

 

But then it flips in January..almost no change at all during that month, and very slight cooling in the spring. The seasons have seemingly shifted later by several weeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

60 and partly cloudy here. Nice day.

[Omegaraptor]

Interesting, similar story here. Almost all of the warming is focused in the July - December period, with outrageous warming during December in particular..more-so than any other month. Could see averages jump 4°F+ in the 1991-2020 averages for December, which is downright ridiculous.

 

But then it flips in January..almost no change at all during that month, and very slight cooling in the spring. The seasons have seemingly shifted later by several weeks.

 

I've logged the new 1991-20 stats for PDX in a wiki table. January and April have warmed by only a fraction of a degree, but Feb and March have only cooled a fraction of a degree as well. May has seen more significant warming but I'll update the averages when the month is over.

 

(Keep in mind the threshold for a precip day on this table is 1mm, or 0.04")

 

[Deweydog]

There is hope. When do those new 30 year averages come out?

In a matter of months!

 

We scored with those kicking in nicely back in 2011. The average high peaking at 82 for the first time at PDX seemed absurd for such a temperate summer. Little did we know...

[James Jones]

In a matter of months!

 

We scored with those kicking in nicely back in 2011. The average high peaking at 82 for the first time at PDX seemed absurd for such a temperate summer. Little did we know...

Here's the raw unsmoothed averages for 1991-2020 so far. The NWS average might be 84/60 for late July.

 

 

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

I see it’s been warm in Siberia. Close to 50 degrees above average the other day near the arctic circle. Low Solar!

[Jesse]

[Timmy Supercell]

Yay!

 

[Jesse]

12z EPS looks pretty similar to the operational. Just a little quicker with the breakdown of the ridge next weekend.

[GeorgeWx]

What does it taste like? What I mean is the bigger the fish, the less good tasting it is. A fish that gigantic does not taste good. Generally the smaller the fish in a particular species, the better tasting it is.

A mix between a halibut and bass.

[Deweydog]

12z EPS looks pretty similar to the operational. Just a little quicker with the breakdown of the ridge next weekend.

Tanks, Thim.

[TacomaWaWx]

I like this latest gfs run.

[Jesse]

Tanks, Thim.

Tanks, Thim.

It’s everyone’s favorite model they’re not supposed to talk about. At least if it shows the wrong things.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS actually looks less troughy in the long range.

[Omegaraptor]

What exactly is happening on the 18z GFS? Looks like it could be a deformation band but I'm not sure.

[Deweydog]

Nice day.

 

And the EPStein didn’t kill himself.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Almost time for a Summer Forecast Contest.

[ShawniganLake]

What exactly is happening on the 18z GFS? Looks like it could be a deformation band but I'm not sure.

Looks thundery.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

 

You sure about that? Close to ten degrees below average so far...

[Timmy Supercell]

You sure about that? Close to ten degrees below average so far...

 

There comes a point in time where below average doesn't always mean cold.

[Requiem]

Some models are showing pretty high (2000 j/kg+) CAPE values for eastern parts of OR and WA into next week— worth watching out for.

[Deweydog]

There comes a point in time where below average doesn't always mean cold.

Especially a year from now.

[TacomaWaWx]

62/48 today...was fairly sunny around noon today but has been mostly cloudy to cloudy since.

[Farmboy]

12Z EPS actually looks less troughy in the long range.

Would be nice if tonight's suite of models trended in that direction too...

[GHweatherChris]

What a beautiful weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60/39 here

[Phil]

A mix between a halibut and bass.

Grouper tastes like air to me. It’s insanely mild.

[Frontal Snowsquall]