Phil Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 True. Precisely. And if you loop that from D10-16, you’ll see the mean ridge axis retrograde westward with time, which is what the operational does too. But of course, there’s lots of variation between ensemble members that far out. And if the ensemble mean is slower to retrograde the wave station(s), that could indicate the operational is too fast. Or vice versa. But the *evolution* of the mean with respect to time is similar to the operational overall, and that’s an important clue. I prefer to observe the general tendencies in the long range, as opposed to taking any solution verbatim. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 We have plenty of time for heat in July and August. All I want (and what most people here want) is some warmth and sun. Shouldn’t be too much to ask for this time of year. Today and yesterday were very nice, but before that was a four day stretch in which the sun showed up for maybe an hour total with Scotland-like temperatures. On average there is a significant jump in average high around June 19th and that seems to be the case this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 ECMWF and GFS are comically different for later next week. I assume the GFS is correct which has become the norm.both are switching off and on where to quick to move the low out, and then the evolution of ridge build. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 We have plenty of time for heat in July and August. All I want (and what most people here want) is some warmth and sun. Shouldn’t be too much to ask for this time of year. Today and yesterday were very nice, but before that was a four day stretch in which the sun showed up for maybe an hour total with Scotland-like temperatures. On average there is a significant jump in average high around June 19th and that seems to be the case this year. Yeah that last week of July and the first week of August are almost always an inferno. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 We have plenty of time for heat in July and August. All I want (and what most people here want) is some warmth and sun. Shouldn’t be too much to ask for this time of year. Today and yesterday were very nice, but before that was a four day stretch in which the sun showed up for maybe an hour total with Scotland-like temperatures. On average there is a significant jump in average high around June 19th and that seems to be the case this year.You are very young so I know you haven’t experienced many Junes around here with a lot of awareness of our weather (the ones you have mostly being the recent torches) but what we have seen this month so far isn’t too far out of the ordinary. I think the problem with you is you are bugged by lots of weather and have yet to figure out what bugs you the most yet. Don’t worry, it’s a journey of self discovery and we have all figured it out in time! But not getting bugged by stuff well within the realm of climo for wherever you are living is a good place to start if you want to be a happy weenie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 12Z EPS looks like the ECMWF and GEFS for later next week... and I still think the GFS will win. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 He reminds me of a significantly more mature version of mid 20’s Jesse. #fox12 I could sure go for some highs in the mid 20’s next winter... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 I've experienced a handful more Junes than mister Donut Hole, the gloom almost never fills an entire June. Actually I don't think we've ever had all of June cool and showery, or cool and cloudy. And I had no more than 1 4th of July rain happen as a kid. Unless you live right on the coast, it's probably a once a generation occurrence. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 .14 here with a rain rate of .25 in/hr Perhaps the sun will peek out in a bit Suns peeking out now here. 60 degrees. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 He reminds me of a significantly more mature version of mid 20’s Jesse. #fox12I could sure go for some highs in the mid 20’s next winter...Now just to get on 45 year old Matt’s level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 The difference between the GFS and the GEFS is significant for later next week. Here is the GEFS for next weekend... Summer solstice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Summer solstice!I’m excited too. Can’t wait for the days to start getting shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Marks Blog was great back in the day. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Now just to get on 45 year old Matt’s level. Winter highs in the mid 40’s are pretty common. For now... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Today’s Skykomish views! 55 and dribbles. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 I've experienced a handful more Junes than mister Donut Hole, the gloom almost never fills an entire June. Actually I don't think we've ever had all of June cool and showery, or cool and cloudy. And I had no more than 1 4th of July rain happen as a kid. Unless you live right on the coast, it's probably a once a generation occurrence. Yeah I went back and checked PDX history for the Fourth. Last significantly rainy one was 1999 (not 1998) but before that it wasn't exactly particularly common. If you discount the days with trace amount of precip it was actually pretty rare. I've seen rain on the Fourth once that I can remember, and funny enough it was in 2018 in Sunriver. It was the lightest mist falling from the sky, probably didn't even count as a trace. Really, getting appreciable rain on the Fourth isn't common anywhere in the region except maybe the wettest and cloudiest parts of western Washington Tim's house Looks like warm and sunny late June weather is on the horizon now. Just a couple more washout days scattered throughout the next 5 or so and we're in the clear. Sunday is looking pretty nice for now, actually. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Yeah I went back and checked PDX history for the Fourth. Last significantly rainy one was 1999 (not 1998) but before that it wasn't exactly particularly common. If you discount the days with trace amount of precip it was actually pretty rare. I've seen rain on the Fourth once that I can remember, and funny enough it was in 2018 in Sunriver. It was the lightest mist falling from the sky, probably didn't even count as a trace. Really, getting appreciable rain on the Fourth isn't common anywhere in the region except maybe the wettest and cloudiest parts of western Washington Tim's house Looks like warm and sunny late June weather is on the horizon now. Just a couple more washout days scattered throughout the next 5 or so and we're in the clear. Sunday is looking pretty nice for now, actually.I remember rain on the 4th in 2010 and 2016 for sure and that was more widespread across western WA. Ironically... it was perfect in 2011 and 2012. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 I remember rain on the 4th in 2010 and 2016 for sure and that was more widespread across western WA. Ironically... it was perfect in 2011 and 2012. I just looked it up and those were the only 2 years with rain on the 4th in the last decade in my area. We are due! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Moderate rain now in Skykomish. No longer dribbles. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 You are very young so I know you haven’t experienced many Junes around here with a lot of awareness of our weather (the ones you have mostly being the recent torches) but what we have seen this month so far isn’t too far out of the ordinary. I think the problem with you is you are bugged by lots of weather and have yet to figure out what bugs you the most yet. Don’t worry, it’s a journey of self discovery and we have all figured it out in time! But not getting bugged by stuff well within the realm of climo for wherever you are living is a good place to start if you want to be a happy weenie. Within the realm of climo for sure, but it has been a pretty wet couple of weeks for this time of year. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 72F and partly cloudy. Nice day! Should be able to get the mowing done tonight. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Nice to see the sun trying to break through this afternoon. Can’t wait for the warmup later next week. Hope it gets hout and persists though early July. C’mon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Nice to see the sun trying to break through this afternoon. Can’t wait for the warmup later next week. Hope it gets hout and persists though early July. C’mon. I think we’re due for some extended dry warm weather. We’ve picked up 5.91” of rain in the past 55 days since mid April which is a decent amount for this time of year. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 As soon as I mentioned the north being wetter than downtown and south towards SEA yesterday I had a feeling it would mock me. Today SEA is wetter than up north! .12 at SEA while .06-.10 up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Within the realm of climo for sure, but it has been a pretty wet couple of weeks for this time of year. 14dPNormWRCC-NWI’m assuming this was meant to be a map of Scotland? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Within the realm of climo for sure, but it has been a pretty wet couple of weeks for this time of year. 14dPNormWRCC-NW.png Yes... but I also think its pretty common to have a wet couple weeks within a normal June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Perfect mid June day....AM rain clearing out by noon and now mostly sunny and 65 degrees. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Does it show us as being online for PC users if we are using mobile? Just curious. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 12Z EPS looks like the ECMWF and GEFS for later next week... and I still think the GFS will win. I'd be okay with a blend of the 12z EURO and GFS operational runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Another NICE afternoon in Seattle. 6 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Yes... but I also think its pretty common to have a wet couple weeks within a normal June. Much of the Portland area is already well above normal rainfall for an entire June. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Another NICE afternoon in Seattle. seat.png Pretty sure you meant in CHAZ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 Another NICE afternoon in Seattle. seat.png Apart from all the weird stuff going at *ground level*, that is one great view. Enjoy it while it's still Seattle. May have to rename them Detroit momentarily. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted June 11, 2020 Report Share Posted June 11, 2020 the carrots get dangled in the 10 day range but the nice weather gets pushed back some years i am golden brown by now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 .26” on the day, 1.50” for the month. Currently mostly sunny and 67. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 West sides getting action before I do today. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 A few drips and drops. 73F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 Another severe storm headed for parts of Central Oregon. Bend may need to watch their south skies this evening. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 I like the new GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 12, 2020 Report Share Posted June 12, 2020 I like the new GFS.Sure glad you are saying that and not Jesse! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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