June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

Why do you talk about that place so much? Do you want to move there?

Redding is cool destination point for road trips! So much to do in between here and there with a side trip to HAT CHICO where it’s always HAT! 

[TT-SEA]

All the bellyaching about 4 straight cold rainy weekends deserves a hearty "Good Lord."

 

The operational, control, and ensemble average members of the latest GFS run for Seattle all show warmer than normal temperatures for almost the entire run, and there's only the slightest chance of any measurable precipitation for next weekend.

 

 

Hawkstwelve is the only person who complained.    And the GFS does show rain and cool conditions both weekend days up here... that is what I reported because that is what it shows.    It is what it is.    

[Jesse]

I've been good bro, 

I've got to be honest though, 2020 can **** right off at this juncture. 

Although N-3.4 is looking like Wall St in 1929, crash baby, CRASH!

You?

I’m doing well. Surviving.

 

Hope that your health prognosis is looking up.

[BLI snowman]

Nah, 7-8 years in a 80 year time frame is not going to "heavily skew" it. It's a lot better than just comparing to 30 years averages, you'd have to admit.

 

Most of those were legitimately cooler than normal Augusts in non-UHI spots. There are maps that show this.

 

That many added examples of what was previously upper tier warmth will definitely skew the long term averages. The running August average is notably higher now than it was a decade ago.

 

It's probably fine to just admit that we haven't seen a chilly August in about 20 years and not grasp at straws to counter it.

[Jbolin]

I’m doing well. Surviving.

 

Hope that your health prognosis is looking up.

I hear ya, things are good here. 

 

Overall health is improving quite well. 

 

Hang in there man. 

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

All the bellyaching about 4 straight cold rainy weekends deserves a hearty "Good Lord."

 

The operational, control, and ensemble average members of the latest GFS run for Seattle all show warmer than normal temperatures for almost the entire run, and there's only the slightest chance of any measurable precipitation for next weekend.

 

You should know the one who coined that term here would never say that with regard to his preference kin.

[TT-SEA]

You should know the one who coined that term here would never say that with regard to his preference kin.

 

Good Lord... you are the preference police king.    A title you will never let go!    And make sure you continue to obsess over Matt's opinion.   I am sure that will change his mind about you.  

 

I have not said anything about anyone preferring rainy/cool weather.     I understand some people feel that way and that does not impact me in any way.  

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF keeps the Seattle area dry on Saturday with the rain band stationary to the north... then it slides through Saturday night and Sunday morning and its fairly dry again by afternoon.  

 

At face value... not a washout weekend for the Seattle area.    

[Deweydog]

You two kids are about as stoic as a couple of rain soaked wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tubemen.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHXvMcLrLSY

[TT-SEA]

You two kids are about as stoic as a couple of rain soaked wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tubemen.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHXvMcLrLSY

 

 

Pass the savings on to youuuuuuuuu!  

[Kayla]

I like the 12z Euro. Ridge never really amplifies and keeps any real heat down where it belongs, in the Southwest.

[TT-SEA]

I like the 12z Euro. Ridge never really amplifies and keeps any real heat down where it belongs, in the Southwest.

Yeah... pretty clear that the models have been overestimating amplification. It does not really make sense to have an extended hot spell in June with a developing Nina.

[TacomaWaWx]

The 12Z ECMWF keeps the Seattle area dry on Saturday with the rain band stationary to the north... then it slides through Saturday night and Sunday morning and its fairly dry again by afternoon.  

 

At face value... not a washout weekend for the Seattle area.

 

Looks wetter than last nights run but atleast it shows the afternoons of Saturday and Sunday being dry. Win win. The next couple days look pretty nice too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 4.79" of rain on the month. 

[Kayla]

Up to 4.79" of rain on the month. 

 

Impressive!

[BLI snowman]

Up to 4.79" of rain on the month. 

 

Just crossed 3" for the month here today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night the convo in here was refreshingly nice. 

[Jesse]

You two kids are about as stoic as a couple of rain soaked wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tubemen.

I never claimed to be stoic.

[TT-SEA]

I never claimed to be stoic.

 

Does stoic mean never even looking at the weather models? It must.

 

Apparently I am not even allowed to talk about what the models show without your goofy comments.

 

I expect nothing less though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive!

 

Monthly average is 3.31" so no matter what happens this month, like May will end up solidly above average. 

[Winterdog]

.79” in past 24 hrs, 4.78” for month and 38.45” for year. Not raining and 60F.

[MossMan]

Good lord.

[GobBluth]

I like the 12z Euro. Ridge never really amplifies and keeps any real heat down where it belongs, in the Southwest.

the collapse of the ridge next week is impressive

[TT-SEA]

the collapse of the ridge next week is impressive

 

 

12Z EPS agrees very well with the ECMWF operational run.

[Jesse]

Some decent showers popping up throughout the area now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a flash or hear a rumble of thunder today.

 

Looking like the last active day in a little while.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tim in rare form...must...not...go...full...Bryant.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Tim in rare form...must...not...go...full...Bryant.

Really? I reported what the GFS showed for the weekend. That is all.

 

You ignore the peanut gallery crap from a particular member though. I expect nothing less.

 

Its all about the endless preference war that someone wants to keep going. Find one post from me mocking someone for their preferences. Good luck!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F with some rain. Glad to have every drop since we are still below normal for the water year.

[GeorgeWx]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_7-day.jpg

Last rainy day in a while.

[GeorgeWx]

55F with some rain. Glad to have every drop since we are still below normal for the water year.

Severe drought.

[GeorgeWx]

I planted some California Fan Palms and Canary Island Date Palms last summer and an Arctic blast would be really hard on them. Hope our six year streak without a regional blast continues!

The Canary Island Date Palms are popular down in Florida

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_7-day.jpg

Last rainy day in a while.

 

This is not terrible. 

[Phil]

That many added examples of what was previously upper tier warmth will definitely skew the long term averages. The running August average is notably higher now than it was a decade ago.

 

It's probably fine to just admit that we haven't seen a chilly August in about 20 years and not grasp at straws to counter it.

The 1941-2020 average also includes a 30 year cold phase from the 1950s-1970s. The 1981-2010 baseline is actually a warmer baseline globally than 1941-2020.

[Phil]

A lot more troughy members on the latest EPS weekly for the month of July.

 

At least a 50-50 split now. But once again, the ridgy members skew insanely warm, so the mean also skews warm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is it confirmation bias on my part that it feels like the models in general have had bigtime differences more than usual since October or so last year?

[FroYoBro]

Getting some nice sun breaks right now with the puffy clouds.

 

Should setup a nice downpour this afternoon

[Front Ranger]

That many added examples of what was previously upper tier warmth will definitely skew the long term averages. The running August average is notably higher now than it was a decade ago.

 

It's probably fine to just admit that we haven't seen a chilly August in about 20 years and not grasp at straws to counter it.

 

"Chilly" is another subjective word. But these are based on 30 year averages, and were still chillier than normal for much of the region.

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

This just got escalated to phase two.