August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Tanis Leach]

23 hours ago, Phil said:

No. Dvorak method tells you nothing about whether the system is tropical or subtropical. It only aims to gauge intensity of a cyclone via satellite presentation.

The intensity of subtropical cyclones can be gauged via dvorak method but often underestimates transitioning systems, hence the development of the ETT method.

This was an un-named subtropical/extratropical system. Period. There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that a warm core/tropical cyclone survived for 2+ days in waters 20°F too cold to support warm core cyclogenesis.

So I don't know if this is your intent, but how the post comes across is that the only evidence you have to counter the 3 storms existence is "it shouldn't happen where it did therefore it didn't". If this is a misconception and you have a counter showing the structure of the storms, I would like to see it. The 1975 storm at the 44N 151W dot had a ship report that confirmed it was in fact, a hurricane, and the dvorak numbers were at least close to the actual numbers (CPHC already began Dvorak numbers on it after their meteorologists concluded it was tropical about 1-2 days before that point) and is included in the NHC database, 2016's Alex, while named, was beyond doubt by the NHC to be a hurricane. The 2006 storm, has a general consensus that it was either tropical or subtropical (with one citing 2005's hurricane Vince as a good analog for composition comparison, which while warmer than what this storm was in, developed in temperatures percieved to be too cold to develop a TC), and FSU's ATS department also concluding it was. The paper I cited shows how it not only was tropical, but how a tropical system could survive over 18C water if conditions are perfect. Even though the NHC never classified it, one of their senior meteorologists at the time, James Franklin said on Dr. Jeff Master's blog (naming the storm Thingimabobbercane): "The convective structure resembled a tropical, rather than subtropical cyclone, and the radius of maximum winds (based on QuikSCAT) was very close to the center, also more typical of tropical cyclones. It was, for most of its existence, under an upper low, typical of subtropical cyclones. However, it was developing a modest mid to upper lever warm core, moving toward tropical structure. So structurally, on balance, it was more tropical than subtropical."

In all fairness, he did also explain that the 18C waters led to it not being classified, because it wasn't the operational definition, but recountered later by saying Nature is not interested in our classification of cyclones. 

For the 54N 138W dot, which you appear to directly refrence with the 20F below temperatures, I'm explaining what the NHC thinks, and even I question it in the post you quoted twice (though the wording appears poor in hindsight), as if we use other analogs in similar latitudes, it would be on the quicker side (ex: 12 hours), so the 51N 142W dot would be the last one it should be considered "tropical" (officially it should be tropical transitioning into EC). Either way, I do think it should be looked at. 

[Tanis Leach]

8 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Even though it means absolutely ****, for your viewing pleasure

Hey, I don't mind having the hope (doesn't mean I'll use it as a source in predictions).

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Hey, I don't mind having the hope (doesn't mean I'll use it as a source in predictions).

I will. CFS all the way.

[HuskyMaestro]

A steady moderate rain here in Fife at 60F. Music to my ears. 

[Cold Snap]

Picked up 0.12” of rain so far. Currently 58.

[NWbyNW]

I love the little bongo blob reaction!!  They're back!!! 

[NWbyNW]

The rain flipping missed me!  What gives?  The high temp yesterday was 68F and it is currently 57F.

The longterm forecast for Everett looks manageable.  It makes me sad to keep seeing rain pop up, only for it to disappear as we get closer to that day.  This has happened a lot this year as a whole.  I guess what really depends is on where the smoke is going to go.

[NWbyNW]

Unfortunately Thursday, especially evening, the smoke appears to be coming back.  Heaviest concentrations will be in BC and NW Washington.  Most of the smoke is coming from BC wildfires which continue to torch the province rent free. This time the smoke will be coming from out in the Pacific and moving over us that way, well a lot of it will be.  Some of it will be localized for the Lower Mainland of BC and Whatcom County. 

This model is showing smoke at higher levels in the atmosphere, so not at ground level.

Ground level smoke might be okay as there doesn't appear to be a lot yet on the modeling forecasts... unless you live in Central Washington. 

For Oregon, a lot of your upper level smoke will be from BC while the lower stuff will come from California wildfires and some localized stuff.

This is at higher altitudes and should not be ground level.  The NW portions is coming in from the Pacific from Canada wile the souther/central band is coming up from California. 

[TT-SEA]

Awakened by the sound of rain pounding on the roof.   Very nice.   

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet, this summer has an average temp of 67.3 at SEA. 2015 was almost 2 degrees warmer with 69.2.

One stat does not tell the whole story.

This feels like a defensive post.   Something to do with Matt?  

I just found it interesting.   And the story it tells me is consistent warmth.   And up until last week it was consistent warmth with almost no extreme heat.  

[Cloud]

This batch moving thru is a good one. It’s zipping by but produced moderate showers. 

[Cloud]

Look like a lot of places, including SEA will have another shot at 90F this weekend before the month is wrap up and meteorological fall starts. 

[TT-SEA]

.40 out here overnight.   The ECMWF was definitely right.   That really helps reduce the fire threat in the central Cascade foothills.   

[TacomaWx]

0.15” in the last 12 hours some light rain falling still and 58 degrees. Our best rain event since June. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

.12" overnight, which I think is right in line with what the models were showing, got down to 54.

[TT-SEA]

The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL.   Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely.  

 

[the_convergence_zone]

This was the teaser, next week is the main event. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

This was the teaser, next week is the main event. 

Weekly rain in the warm season makes everything better.

[Snownerd3000]

Went to bed last night with rain falling on the leaves outside my window and woke up to the same sound. Hard to beat that music.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pleasant mostly clear morning.

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see air quality is much improved in Spokane. 

 

[Deweydog]

Detailed forecast for metro area from the NWS. 1pm to 4pm is gonna be glorious!  

Thursday

Widespread haze before 1pm, then widespread haze after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 7 to 10 mph.

[BLI snowman]

Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22".

[Rubus Leucodermis]

.00" overnight .

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22".

Incredible stat.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22".

What do they average?

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL.   Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely.  

 

Looks like the smoke is going to be around for about a week before getting cleared out by that storm next Wed/Thurs. Mostly a nuisance this time it seems like. 

[YahRaEl]

Possible thunderstorms for overnight Thursday into Friday late morning for parts of Western Washington and Oregon

[SouthHillFrosty]

.28 last night into this morning.

[the_convergence_zone]

29 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

What do they average?

14.77"

[LowerGarfield]

49 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Los Angeles is at 26.21" of precip on the year so far. Decent chance they see their wettest year since 1884. Meanwhile, Seattle is sitting at 14.22".

Still a bit of an asterisk when you consider they switched a few years ago from California's water year which aligned better with their climate.

Sunny day but cool breeze. I have the windows open today with the temps only slated to reach about 75F or so later.

[YahRaEl]

https://twitter.com/fox12weather/status/1694362779229061372?s=20

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The satellite shows elevated smoke coming in on the backside of this ULL.   Still raining lightly here with smoke also moving in... lovely.  

 

The sun had that orange smoky glow this morning here. But it’s all elevated for now.  0.03” of rain overnight.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clear and sunny. More very dry weather continues. With the wet weather to the north and south, we are caught in the middle and still well on our way to becoming a desert here.

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Still a bit of an asterisk when you consider they switched a few years ago from California's water year which aligned better with their climate.

Sunny day but cool breeze. I have the windows open today with the temps only slated to reach about 75F or so later.

I'm just looking at the calendar YTD. Although even if you're looking at the water year, L.A. comes out slightly ahead. 

[ShawniganLake]

The 100k acre Bush creek east fire in the Shuswap area received a substantial amount of rain last night. Which should cut back on some of the smoke being pumped out of the interior.  But the Fraser canyon area hasn’t seen much as of yet. The Stein mountain fire was very active last night, pushing 2-3 miles up The canyon under strong southerly winds. 

[Omegaraptor]

well this wouldn’t be very good

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

well this wouldn’t be very good

Hour 336? We can ignore this

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a cloud in the sky in Albany this morning. 

[YahRaEl]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hour 336? We can ignore this

And it's GFS Goofus