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August 2023 Weather in the PNW


Cascadia_Wx

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20 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Thunderstorms are firing up. 

KRTX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 4_00 PM.gif

KMAX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 4_05 PM.gif

Screenshot_20230824_160631_My Lightning Tracker Pro.jpg

Nice! Afternoon trends are hopeful for the Seattle area later tonight into midday tomorrow. PDX looks great!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

The NHC does not consider it to be a hurricane. A ship cannot confirm whether it’s a tropical or subtropical/extratropical system. Neither can the dvorak system. That’s why it is un-named.

Many subtropical systems have tropical characteristics. Many also have hurricane force winds and tight cores. That is entirely normal, and can exist over much cooler water.

But that doesn’t make them *tropical* systems, driven by warm-rain processes. Need a unique set of conditions/thermodynamic processes to meet said criteria. Unless they are *purely* tropical in that regard, they are, by definition, subtropical. It’s a definition/classification you can disagree with, but that is the convention as of now.

 

Ok, here is the 1949 to present EPAC hurricane database. Scroll down to 1975: nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2022-050423.txt

1975 season from CPAC, where they describe the storm (another NOAA entity, where the 75 system originally formed: https://web.archive.org/web/20180915135859/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1975.php

As a bonus, 2 articles from the AMS journal monthly weather reviews (MWR) of it: An Unusual Tropical Cyclone in the North Central Pacific in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 3 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

Unusual Tropical Development from a Mid-Pacific Cold Low in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 6 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

One thing I did forget, is that the 1975 hurricane did originate as a subtropical storm over 28°C water (it was noted at 28°C at 35°N), and when it was upgraded to a hurricane (completing Tropical transition), it was 25°C (see 1st MWR). SST's rapidly deteriorated after the last dot as a hurricane and "was quickly becoming extratropical [at 12z Sep 4]." It got downgraded at 17C (12z Sep 4), to a TS. This does further question the 54N 138W dot but strengthens the case that it was tropical to at a minimum 44N. I would like to see a reanalysis of this just for better confirmation one way or another.

The 06 storm I do understand the debate since it isn't officially classified. While I see it as subtropical to tropical with my support being the structure of the storm, and the evidence provided by Bently (et. al) 2016, I do respect your opinion on it. 

Now for Alex:

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Also re: hurricane Alex, the waters it traveled over were 73°F, and the tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep, enough to fuel exceptional instability. And it just so happened to exist in a zonal wind moat.

Those conditions don’t exist off the coast of Alaska (concurrently) at any time of year. You’re looking at water temps in the 50s or below. Not to mention the in-situ oceanic conditions (strong EBC) were unfavorable in 1975, fueled by a prolific 3-year La Niña.

It is exceedingly unlikely to have been a purely tropical system, as the NHC recognizes.

Your point 2 stands (tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep). But the water was only 73°F was only true when the storm formed. The tropical cyclone report noted it was upgraded to a hurricane at 22°C (71.6°F) (note this was 9 hours earlier than the operational intensity), and the peak still was at 20°C (68°F), with weakening beginning at 18°C (64.4°F).

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Hurricane Alex has been confirmed to be a storm of tropical origins. But what does this mean for Joe Biden?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Tropical is not possible, only subtropical. 

 

21 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Ok, here is the 1949 to present EPAC hurricane database. Scroll down to 1975: nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2022-050423.txt

1975 season from CPAC, where they describe the storm (another NOAA entity, where the 75 system originally formed: https://web.archive.org/web/20180915135859/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1975.php

As a bonus, 2 articles from the AMS journal monthly weather reviews (MWR) of it: An Unusual Tropical Cyclone in the North Central Pacific in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 3 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

Unusual Tropical Development from a Mid-Pacific Cold Low in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 104 Issue 6 (1976) (ametsoc.org)

One thing I did forget, is that the 1975 hurricane did originate as a subtropical storm over 28°C water (it was noted at 28°C at 35°N), and when it was upgraded to a hurricane (completing Tropical transition), it was 25°C (see 1st MWR). SST's rapidly deteriorated after the last dot as a hurricane and "was quickly becoming extratropical [at 12z Sep 4]." It got downgraded at 17C (12z Sep 4), to a TS. This does further question the 54N 138W dot but strengthens the case that it was tropical to at a minimum 44N. I would like to see a reanalysis of this just for better confirmation one way or another.

The 06 storm I do understand the debate since it isn't officially classified. While I see it as subtropical to tropical with my support being the structure of the storm, and the evidence provided by Bently (et. al) 2016, I do respect your opinion on it. 

Now for Alex:

Your point 2 stands (tropical upper troposphere was exceptionally cold/deep). But the water was only 73°F was only true when the storm formed. The tropical cyclone report noted it was upgraded to a hurricane at 22°C (71.6°F) (note this was 9 hours earlier than the operational intensity), and the peak still was at 20°C (68°F), with weakening beginning at 18°C (64.4°F).

This was the context for my post, good @iFred

A forum for the end of the world.

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice to see a massive swath of the West get the fire season essentially ended. Hopefully this will be the case for southern BC soon as well.

7dPNormWRCC.png

I don't know about that. 800% of very little avg precip is still very little precip. 

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77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: TBD

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low:

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

we had like .45 here and that's apparently 250% of normal I guess

Yeah. .44 here and same story!

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: TBD

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low:

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

Yep. Sad state of affairs. Everyone has to come to Springfield to go to the ER now. Just crazy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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23 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

77F outside with a bit of haze but not terrible.

@TigerWoodsLibido I thought of you when I heard Eugene's only hospital is closing. Makes me mad that a city that large will have no hospital. Thinking of all the people with burns/smoke damage or chronic conditions tonight.

The Riverbend hospital, just east of the Eug/Spr border is about 10x bigger than the Eugene hospital that is closing. It was pretty inevitable. That being said, it is a bit embarrassing that the hospital is not located in Eugene. It was a matter of locating the right amount of land and property and tons of crappy politics and grift.

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I remember the thunder, just didn’t see any lightning bolts. Hopefully that can change soon.

There are a few lightning bolts to your east. Probably not viewable now, but at least you should be able to see flashes within the next 20 minutes if you can sit outside in a lawn chair and stare out to the east.

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1 minute ago, Dave said:

There are a few lightning bolts to your east. Probably not viewable now, but at least you should be able to see flashes within the next 20 minutes if you can sit outside in a lawn chair and stare out to the east.

I’m in Monmouth today 😂

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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9 minutes ago, Dave said:

Probably the biggest storm in years will roll over your house now. Shiiiiaat.

Absolutely expected.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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77/47 day for me. Highs underperformed a bit due to smoke. If the smoke sticks around through the weekend maybe I won’t get 90 burgers Saturday and Sunday.

2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 16

Number of 85+ days - 12

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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Headed south from Monmouth into the south valley. I’ll keep y’all posted.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Confirmed flashes!! Here we go!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Now headed east on OR SR 34 toward I-5.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Heavy rain!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Flashes in the cascade foothills!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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We don’t want lightning. Jeezus you people. Getting a little light rain here now. Didn’t expect that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Dave said:

The Riverbend hospital, just east of the Eug/Spr border is about 10x bigger than the Eugene hospital that is closing. It was pretty inevitable. That being said, it is a bit embarrassing that the hospital is not located in Eugene. It was a matter of locating the right amount of land and property and tons of crappy politics and grift.

Just asked my wife about it, and she said that the building was very underutilized and was way over due for major repairs/remodeling.  It is also hemorrhaging money (which is a true statement for most medical facilities these days to some degree). 

It sucks for the employees and the few people who did use it.  Hopefully they move the pediatric ER to Riverbend, they were a lifesaver for us when we were sent there from the Corvallis ER when we thought my infant daughter had intussusception.  Thankfully she didn't, but that was a very long and very stressful night, and we were dreading the prospect of having to drive to Portland at 1am.  Hard to believe my "infant daughter" is about to turn 27!

 

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Headed south on I-5. Not as much lightning and no rain this way yet.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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