August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Andie said:

It’s been one for the books for most of us here.  
If winter snaps back proportionally it will be a very cold winter.  I’m looking forward to pulling out the coat! 

#southernstreamdream

[Black Hole]

Overachieved a bit on morning lows (on the cool side) with a 67F here. I tried to enjoy it because it'll be hot for a while now. Looking at 95F today with heat indices of 105F and then 103F or so the next 2 days with heat indices of 110-115F.  

[Tom]

Here’s a little tease….F-16 Beast Mode…God Bless the  

 

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

I love air shows!  
Our Naval Air Station canceled theirs this year. 
They usually rip out over our house. Ring side seat.  

[Naptownwx]

Not looking forward to this heatwave

[Tom]

54 minutes ago, Andie said:

I love air shows!  
Our Naval Air Station canceled theirs this year. 
They usually rip out over our house. Ring side seat.  

Thunderbirds up next…I missed their opening as they flew for like 30 min.  I think they close out the show this year also.  Double time!

[Tom]

Great finale to see ‘em birds…

 

 

[Andie]

Oh yeah!   
Grew up with screaming jets.  Just love ‘em!

We’re at 109/110.  
Allergens hitting now too.

[Iceresistance]

105 for me tomorrow, urgh...

[OKwx2k4]

Beautiful and ugly atmosphere....

Here's to reversals.

 

 

[westMJim]

The SW Michian weather history has this for August 17.

August 17

1988: It is the last hot day of the hot and dry summer of 1988. Record highs were set at Grand Rapids with 98 degrees, Lansing with 95, and Muskegon with 93. Thirteen of the first seventeen days of August had highs over 90 degrees at Grand Rapids, but none after today. The transition to cooler weather is marked by severe thunderstorms that bring large hail and damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening.

Even though it was 25 years ago I still remember the early evening of August 17th 1988. The summer of 1988 was indeed a very hot one. While the mean temperatures for June 68.5° July 74.6° and August 73.4° were not the hottest for any of those months the highest readings of 98°for June, 100° for July and 98° for August were very hot. June was very dry with just 0.25” at Grand Rapids July and August were wetter. That summer had a total of 37 days of 90 or better. That 37 days of 90 or better is the record at Grand Rapids. With May having 1, June having 10 and July and August having 13 each. This year so far there have only been 8 so far at Grand Rapids. 1988 had 11 days when the temperature did not drop below 70° So far this year there has been 1 such day. While June and July had many days with highs in the 90’s or better with low dew points the lows fell into the 60’s, 50’s and even the 40’s. But it was the first 17 days of August that the heat poured on. From August 1st to the 17th there were 13 days of 90 or better. From the 11th to the 17th there were 7 day in a row of 90 or better. For the month there were 2 days of 98, 1 day of 97, 3 days of 95, 3 days of 93 and 4 days of 91. The month also had 9 days of lows of 70 or above with 1 at 76, 1 at 75, 1 at 74, 1 at 73. 4 at 72 and 1 at 70. Remember that was in the first 17 days.

The on August 17th the day was hot and humid. We only had a window air conditioning at that time. The official high for the day was 98. I had 101 at my house. During the day a line of storms formed over the UP. That line sank slowly south during the day. The was a east west line. It did not reach Grand Rapids in after sunset. We had a picnic table in the back yard and I watched the storms come in from the north they did not reach GR until after 9PM there was steady lightning for over 3 hours to the north. After the storms it did not get any warmer than 81 for the rest of August and the high was only 80 in September. For one of the biggest weather pattern changes we have seen. The big takeaway is that 1988 had a record number of days of 90 or better and that ended on August 17th

[Clinton]

Here we go, the heat is on beginning today.  Forecasted high of 102 and this is going to last for quite some time.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Here we go, the heat is on beginning today.  Forecasted high of 102 and this is going to last for quite some time.

It looks like this Heat Wave is going to impact pretty much all of us in this Sub from north to south, but not so much east.  I say, bring on the hottest temps of the season and then let's turn the corner later next weekend and start to FEEL the Autumn weather.  I don't know how my brother and his friends are going to deal with the HEAT and Humidity down in the Ozarks next week!  

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

It looks like this Heat Wave is going to impact pretty much all of us in this Sub from north to south, but not so much east.  I say, bring on the hottest temps of the season and then let's turn the corner later next weekend and start to FEEL the Autumn weather.  I don't know how my brother and his friends are going to deal with the HEAT and Humidity down in the Ozarks next week!  

They are going to sweat lol!  I think there maybe a short break in the heat next weekend for some but don't be surprised if this builds back in through the first week of September. Then we look to the Gulf, Florida is first up and then the TX/LA coast.

[OKwx2k4]

57 minutes ago, Tom said:

It looks like this Heat Wave is going to impact pretty much all of us in this Sub from north to south, but not so much east.  I say, bring on the hottest temps of the season and then let's turn the corner later next weekend and start to FEEL the Autumn weather.  I don't know how my brother and his friends are going to deal with the HEAT and Humidity down in the Ozarks next week!  

Its going to be brutal down here, but I promise they are seeing it at the most beautiful I've seen it here in 2 decades. Hope they enjoy their visit.

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

They are going to sweat lol!  I think there maybe a short break in the heat next weekend for some but don't be surprised if this builds back in through the first week of September. Then we look to the Gulf, Florida is first up and then the TX/LA coast.

We'll have to see how much the W NAMER ridge flex's its muscle end of month and pops the PNA into + territory.  It's interesting to see how the Polar Vortex suddenly has got its act together and the Aleutian Low has begun to take shape.  As Gary says, the new LRC begins to show its very very early signs up in the northern latitudes.

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its going to be brutal down here, but I promise they are seeing it at the most beautiful I've seen it here in 2 decades. Hope they enjoy their visit.

Thanks...I'm sure they will have fun on the water.  It's always a good time down there.  I haven't been there since prob 2006?  That place has developed so much it prob looks way different now.  I definitely want to visit down there soon!

[mlgamer]

Greetings everyone! The heat really gets cranked up today...my forecast high is 108. Heat waves. Yuck.

Interesting AFD from TOP this morning. Excerpt:

"Well, today`s the day. The much advertised heat wave will begin
today as ridging strengthens and builds north across the Central
Plains. According to RAP mesoanalysis, 850 mb temperatures are
already at 30C. Looking at a climatology of TOP`s upper air
soundings, 30C temperatures at 850 mb have only been observed three
times since soundings began in 1955, with a maximum of 31 C in June
1980. So we are in very rare air indeed. The main question for today
continues to be how deep the mixing will be. If those very hot
temperatures aloft can fully mix out, we`ll be looking at
temperatures in the 110 to 115 degree range, which would be pushing
all time records. A more reasonable mixing scenario would see highs
today in the 105 to 110 range, which would still be near daily
record maximums.

[chescowxman]

This morning's low temperatures made it down to the low 50's in many of the lower valley spots across Chester County. Here in East Nantmeal the low this AM of 55.1 was our chilliest low since the 53.9 degree low back on June 15th.

Today will be a top 10 day of the summer with very sunny skies, low humidity and high temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 70's. We warm up tomorrow into the low to mid-80's but still low humidity. We warm up for just one day on Monday but yet again with more humidity temps should top out in the mid to upper 80's. More great cooler than normal weather moves back in for Tuesday through Thursday as we continue our relatively chilly summer here in Chester County.

Records for today: High 96 (1914) / Low 45 (1949) / Rain 4.98" (1939)

[Andie]

Currently 85.  
High today forecast for 110/111

Excessive heat warning.  
It’s been a long time since we hit 111* officially.  It’s 92* at 9:30 so should be easy.  
I think I’m done. Would somebody turn me over?  Who’s ready for Fall?
 

I’ll make this easy.  
 

[Hoosier]

I think there's a real shot at hitting 100 at Chicago O'Hare midweek.  Right now, I'd give it just under a 50/50 chance, with it still being 4-5 days out.

It looks warm enough aloft to do it, and there will be a dry spell heading into this period to help dry out the soils a bit.  Looking back through history, a drought per se is not required for Chicago to hit 100, but you usually need to at least be in a dry stretch.  Officially, Chicago has hit 100+ a total of 65 times since records began, but it has not occurred at O'Hare since 2012.  Out of those 65 occurrences, only 5 have occurred after August 20, with the last one being in 1960.  So this would be pretty rare territory and it's why I'm holding back a bit and not being more aggressive with calling for it.

[CentralNebWeather]

As of 1 pm we are sitting in the low to mid 90’s with heat index between 105-112 depending on the app I’m using. Looks like it lasts through Thursday. Absolutely hate extreme heat and humidity. Couldn’t ever see myself moving any farther south. I could see mountain living for my wife and I sometime in the future. Maybe in 5 years. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Hoosier]

There's an inaccuracy in the afternoon afd from NWS Chicago.  In it they mention that Chicago has only hit 100 or better once after August 16.  That's true if you're only looking at the month of August, but there have been some occurrences in September.

Here are the 5 days with a high of 100+ in Chicago after August 16:

 

9/7/1939:  100

8/24/1947:  100

9/1/1953:  101

9/2/1953:  101

9/7/1960:  100

 

Edit:  looks like they just sent out a corrected afd

Edited August 19, 2023 by Hoosier

[Tom]

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's an inaccuracy in the afternoon afd from NWS Chicago.  In it they mention that Chicago has only hit 100 or better once after August 16.  That's true if you're only looking at the month of August, but there have been some occurrences in September.

Here are the 5 days with a high of 100+ in Chicago after August 16:

 

9/7/1939:  100

8/24/1947:  100

9/1/1953:  101

9/2/1953:  101

9/7/1960:  100

 

Edit:  looks like they just sent out a corrected afd

Great call!  You guys have a great mind...#statman

[Iceresistance]

I reached 107°F today, hottest yet

[Jayhawker85]

My car thermometer read 113 about a hour ago. This is only day 1 of a 6 day hot streak. YIKES!

[james1976]

Hello from Manchester, New Hampshire! Nice and cool upper 60s today and overcast. Think Fall!

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew point has surged to 77 as of 7:30 pm. Heat index still 110. One of the worst days I’ve felt in years. Fortunately, the sun is getting ready to set, losing over 2 minutes of sunlight a day now. 

[hawkstwelve]

High of 92 with the HI topping out at 112. Currently have 77% humidity and it feels downright oppresive out there. My son played his first actual football game today and a lot of them were feeling kind of sick after a while. We just kept giving them and dousing them in water. That was only at 11:30AM, can't imagine the poor kids who had to play this afternoon. Rough.

We cool back down into the 80s tomorrow but then the heat is on for the remainder of the week. I'm ready for fall already!

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

My car thermometer read 113 about a hour ago. This is only day 1 of a 6 day hot streak. YIKES!

Brutal today and tomorrow should be hotter!

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I reached 107°F today, hottest yet

Thats just filthy!  I'm ready for October and bonfire weather. 

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

Thats just filthy!  I'm ready for October and bonfire weather. 

Yes!  The ambiance of bon fire weather....ahhhh, love those type of cool evenings around a fire...

 

[Tom]

@Clinton if forecasts hold, it looks really really nice later next weekend into the following week...the trough appears to wanna crash far enough south to give a lot of us a nice period of comfortable DP's and cool nights.  If the Euro is right, it may even crash all the way down to Texarkana and give @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistance a much welcomed relief from the oppressive Heat to close out August.

 

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton if forecasts hold, it looks really really nice later next weekend into the following week...the trough appears to wanna crash far enough south to give a lot of us a nice period of comfortable DP's and cool nights.  If the Euro is right, it may even crash all the way down to Texarkana and give @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistance a much welcomed relief from the oppressive Heat to close out August.

 

I'm so looking forward to it!  This is going to be a rough week. Manhattan Kansas hit 115 actual temp yesterday and Lawrence had a heat index of 126.  The crazy GFS turned out to be not so crazy.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm so looking forward to it!  This is going to be a rough week. Manhattan Kansas hit 115 actual temp yesterday and Lawrence had a HI of 126.  The crazy GFS turned out to be not so crazy.

Holy smokes  

[Clinton]

The heat arrived yesterday for me today it will team up with dew points in the 70s.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Holy smokes  

For Lawrence that heat index of 126 is just disgusting!

[Iceresistance]

30 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton if forecasts hold, it looks really really nice later next weekend into the following week...the trough appears to wanna crash far enough south to give a lot of us a nice period of comfortable DP's and cool nights.  If the Euro is right, it may even crash all the way down to Texarkana and give @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistance a much welcomed relief from the oppressive Heat to close out August.

 

I am really excited for this one!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The heat arrived yesterday for me today it will team up with dew points in the 70s.

It better not be a repeat of the late July heat indexes we had in the Ohio Valley.