2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Tom]

15 hours ago, Black Hole said:

That's fine and all, but to anybody who knows about SSW events and what to look for, what I posted was meaningful. I've posted many maps over the last few weeks highlighting the potential. I verbally described what the difference was compared to the past runs that did not have a PV lobe over North America...etc. 

Lastly, there is typically much less going on in the stratosphere. It's not fantasy land at day 15 for a SSW. It's almost certainly going to happen, it's just a matter of how and where the anomalies focus at this point. But I am not going to debate with you beyond this about whether my posts could be better or not. I came on here on my own free time to share my thoughts, which have always been well-received by others, and that's good enough for me.  

Regarding the bolded, I have found over the years, that the models predict the 10mb strat forecasts a lot better in the LR.  Is it due there being less atmospheric weight up at the 10mb level?  Could very well be true.  With that being said, I value your input on here and detailed analysis.

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Regarding the bolded, I have found over the years, that the models predict the 10mb strat forecasts a lot better in the LR.  Is it due there being less atmospheric weight up at the 10mb level?  Could very well be true.  With that being said, I value your input on here and detailed analysis.

It's just so far above any terrain that there is very little noise up there. It's always a low wavenumber pattern that slowly evolves. There are very few things that can even affect the stratosphere for that matter, at least not meaningfully. So on the rare case that we get a pattern that affects it to the point of a SSW, it's predictability is usually pretty high. At least that is how I would describe it. Thanks for the kind words too. 

[Minny_Weather]

New weeklies are out!

We are literally never going to have cold air over Canada 

[westMJim]

I already posted this in the December discussion but will also post it here for the winter one as well

Grand Rapids is still on track to have the 2^nd least snowy month of December. At the current time there has been just 1.3” of total snow fall for December the record lowest of 1.0” fell in 2014. In 2^nd place is 2.3” in 1912 and again in 1913. And for the season the total of just 3.2” is in play for the lowest so deep into the winter season depending on how much snow we get before January 1^st we could set a new record for that as well the current record lowest is 3.6” if 1913. Unless we get over 4” this weekend we will end up in the 2^nd lowest snowfall for any October thru December.

[gimmesnow]

Please send help!

[Clinton]

Looks like the Strat warm we had in early December is about to pay dividends.  As we get to the 30 day mark looks what's happening with the AO, NAO, EPO, and WPO going negative at the same time.  Bring down the PV please!  Another strong SSW event is occurring now lets hope it plays ball in February also.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the Strat warm we had in early December is about to pay dividends.  As we get to the 30 day mark looks what's happening with the AO, NAO, EPO, and WPO going negative at the same time.  Bring down the PV please!  Another strong SSW event is occurring now lets hope it plays ball in February also.

This could realistically turn into an extraordinary Winter if you count March into the mix...remember those 500mb seasonal maps off the UKMET, JMA and EURO???  JAN-MAR period were always the months to look out for...lets see how it all shakes out!

[westMJim]

While we are now in meteorological winter this past Tuesday the Earth was at its closes point to the sun known as perihelion at 7:38 PM and is now heading out towards aphelion.  Earth's perihelion takes place in early January. The exact date shifts because the calendar year doesn't perfectly match Earth's orbit. 

The word comes from Greek and literally means around (peri) the sun (helios). Aphelion is the point at which an orbiting body is furthest from the sun.

Earth's perihelion takes place in early January. The exact date shifts because the calendar year doesn't perfectly match Earth's orbit. While this year it was on January 2^nd in 2025 it will be on January 4^th in 2026 it will be January 3^rd in 2027 back to January 2^nd and in 2028 it will be on January 5^th

As for aphelion, that is when the Earth is the far point from the sun. This year it will be on July 5^th The date for aphelion also happens on different days every year.

So bottom line is that here in the Northern Hemisphere we are closer to the sun in winter and farther from the sun in Summer. The difference is around 3 million miles.

 

[mlgamer]

On 9/3/2023 at 10:10 AM, gimmesnow said:

The Old Almanac and Almanac have been doing long range forecasts for over 200 years. They don't have models and all this other stuff, they do it with completely different tools they keep secret. Both almanacs are saying cold and stormy for most of us.  Old Almanac is going all in. I guess we'll see, meteorologists seem to think winter won't be that good but the Farmers are all over cold and snow.

I remember laughing at this map when it was first posted. Shows how little I know...lol

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

I remember laughing at this map when it was first posted. Shows how little I know...lol

I was laughing too in December, lol

[Hoosier]

On 11/16/2023 at 1:33 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

 

Main change from my initial thought was to go colder.  I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out.  Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another.  

Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable.  So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me.  This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold.

Just a little update as we reach the halfway point of met winter.

First off, it does now appear more likely than not that we will reach 2.0 on the ONI for the months of NDJ.  We'll see in a couple weeks or so.  

December came in much warmer than I envisioned, and that alone may make it tough to get a 0 to +1 finish on temps for DJF.  This month and February are really going to have to come through and it would take both Jan/Feb finishing decently colder than average or one month finishing way colder than average to make it possible.  

As far as snowfall, ORD is at 18.1" (I know downtown has had substantially less though) so just need another 10" to get into range.  I don't think that will be a problem as there are some snow chances coming up and it does not appear to me that we will be seeing a prolonged/weeks long torch coming up.  

Today is day 2 of below 0 temps, with more to come.  From a climo perspective, the window for below 0 temps will essentially close in 6-8 weeks as a March below 0 temp only occurs about once every 9 years on average.  When all is said and done, there is a possibility of exceeding 5 days below 0, especially if we were to see another very cold spell after this week.   

It took a while, but winter finally came.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Incredible  data.. Think back to OTM  having the largest 2 yr deficits in midwest.

Well.... since Oct 15th my station here almost leads Iowa in snowfall  at 39.2"! Just .7 behind a site NNE of Fairfield  in Jefferson  County just to my east

 

Also I have 7.34" precip since Oct 15.. most of which falling since Dec 15th!!! Just a incredible  wet and snowy winter pattern  here in SE Iowa!!

Hard to fathom having 40" but that will be the case by the January  19th!!!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Heres where we stand. Crazy to think that se Iowa has more snow than anywhere  in minn, nd, wisc.. 

[Clinton]

Teleconnections on the Euro weeklies are trending toward another artic outbreak come the middle of February.  Bastardi has been forecasting this for awhile and thinks it has some legs to last into March.  Lots of things coming together at the same time, a return to a negative AO, NAO, and EPO, a SSW event and the LRC which is predicting a cold and snowy end of February for the nations mid section.

Looks like things will get going around the 11th and by the 15th cold air may really pour into the pattern.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Teleconnections on the Euro weeklies are trending toward another artic outbreak come the middle of February.  Bastardi has been forecasting this for awhile and thinks it has some legs to last into March.  Lots of things coming together at the same time, a return to a negative AO, NAO, and EPO, a SSW event and the LRC which is predicting a cold and snowy end of February for the nations mid section.

Looks like things will get going around the 11th and by the 15th cold air may really pour into the pattern.

Hopefully another Super Bowl Blitz or Valentine’s Day blitz?

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hopefully another Super Bowl Blitz or Valentine’s Day blitz?

Likely imo.

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies showing an excellent pattern for that mid Feb period. This would have some serious potential for somewhere in the middle of the country. 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

EPS weeklies showing an excellent pattern for that mid Feb period. This would have some serious potential for somewhere in the middle of the country. 

Super Bowl Blitz???  Come on baby, I smell something Big during this period...its Game on post Feb 5th for your region as the Pattern Reloads in a Bigly Fashion...

[Tom]

Update on the SSW event that began on JAN 18th according to the JMA center...

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[Andie]

So, for the peanut gallery, what does that sudden spike say?   Looks anomalous.  

[Beltrami Island]

On 1/22/2024 at 7:43 AM, Tom said:

Update on the SSW event that began on JAN 18th according to the JMA center...

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

From what I have been able to find elsewhere, this is a non event so to speak.  The warming caused the zonal winds of the strat pv to stop and briefly reverse meeting the technical definition of a major SSW.  But, the effect wasn't transferred to the troposphere which happens about 1/3 of the time for major SSW?  In fact somehow this temp spike is actually related to the strengthening of the strat pv after the non-major SSW around new years.  Not saying I can make sense of the correlations/causations just what I read elsewhere.  

[gimmesnow]

So how does things look for the UP in February? Will we see favourable wind for lake effect snow?

[Madtown]

Eventually it has to snow. This is year vs years past in Ironwood MI. It's gonna snow...when who knows

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Eventually it has to snow. This is year vs years past in Ironwood MI. It's gonna snow...when who knows

Oh wow. I didn't realize there was such an amazing deficit up there. Hope you pick up some white stuff!!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Mby is at 43.2" for the season.  And  3 bouts of freezing rain. Incredible  to think that Ottumwa  Iowa has more snow than almost  every major city in usa except  Buffalo NY.  It has been a grueling 16 days, sleepless at times. Alot of tired men and equipment  breakdowns. Our top 3 men easily over 220 hours worked since Monday Jan 8th.  What's  ironic is not one plowable snow in March, Nov and Dec 2023. After only 20 inches of precip at OTM  prior to Dec 15th, mby now nearing 6 inches in 5 weeks!

[Clinton]

The weeklies came in with a cold and snowy look for February starting in week 2.  Here we go, blocking from Alaska to Greenland seeding the cold for the jet that's cutting underneath.

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The weeklies came in with a cold and snowy look for February starting in week 2.  Here we go, blocking from Alaska to Greenland seeding the cold for the jet that's cutting underneath.

Hopefully this plays out before the sun angle gets too strong. We could end up with a couple weeks of winter wonderland end of February.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Hopefully this plays out before the sun angle gets too strong. We could end up with a couple weeks of winter wonderland end of February.

The JMA weeklies are "Gun Hoe"...Look out Below...Winter coming back Big time...right around the 8th is when those out in the western Sub see it first, quite possibly before then...depending on how the system that tracks through the 4 corners around Ground Hogs Day evolves.

Week 3-4...

 

 

 

Temp/Precip...that looks brutal cold for a LR temp anomaly off this model...

 

Precip...that ribbon of AN on the leeward side of the Rockies is very very intriguing as it cold imply a LOT of CO Low's in this pattern or, for better or worse, TX Panhandle cutters???   Let it SNOW, Let it SNOW, Let it SNOW...

 

@gimmesnow @Madtown This is when you guys should see a more favorable northerly flow off Lake Superior...

[OttumwaSnomow]

This data just blows my mind. Ottumwa  and Fairfield  Iowa one of snowiest  locations  east of Rockies. 

[Madtown]

news report yesterday....anywhere from 30" below normal to date outside the lake belts, around  60" below normal to date in the snow belt

[westMJim]

So far, the big stories for the winter of 2023/24 have been the mild almost snowless December. The 2 weeks of cold and snow in January saw not only the coldest temperatures of the winter, but a total of 30” of snowfall in just two weeks. And now February has had a very warm start. For the winter season we are running near the record warm meteorological winter of 1921/32. The mean for the meteorological winter of 1931/32 was 33.9 so far this winter has a mean of 33.5.    

Here is a month by month breakdown of the meteorological winters  of 1931/32 and 2023/24 so far. December 1931 had a mean of 35.8°, the high for the month was 55 and the low was 17. There was 7.1” of snowfall. December 2023 had a mean of 38.3 the high for the month was 58 and the low for the month was 22 there was just 1.3” of total snowfall. January 1932 The mean was 34.2 the high for the month was 58 and the low for the month was 5 there was just 3.2” of snowfall. January 2024 had a mean of 27.1 the high was only 40 the low for the month was -5 There were many days where it did not get below 30. The was a lot of snow in a two-week period when over 30” fell the month ended up with 31.3” of snowfall. February 1932 had a mean of 31.8 the high for the month was 64 and the low for the month was 13. There was 5.2” of snowfall. So far this year the 1^st 16 days February mean is 35.1 that is a departure of +10.0.   The highest so far is 59 and the lowest so far is just 21. There has been 5.5” of snowfall and 0.53” of total precipitation.  In 1932 for the whole month of February the mean at GR was 31.8 the high for the month was 64 and the low for the month was 13. There was 5.2” of snowfall the total precipitation was 1.16”. The next 13 days will decide if this winter will be the warmest meteorological winter.

[Stormy]

On 2/14/2024 at 9:29 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

This data just blows my mind. Ottumwa  and Fairfield  Iowa one of snowiest  locations  east of Rockies. 

What blows me away yet more is that most of the snow fell within 1 weeks time during a season that only had around 2 weeks of real winter, and that most of it melted by early February!! And it basically all soaked into the thirsty unfrozen soil, similar to the previous winter's precipitation. In January I totally expected to see more of January's snow hang around till some time in March, but even the very deepest drifts have mostly disappeared! The winter of '07 - 2008 was the snowiest of my records, but does anyone know if that was also an elnino winter too? It seems like NINO winters are more active in my area. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Stormy said:

What blows me away yet more is that most of the snow fell within 1 weeks time during a season that only had around 2 weeks of real winter, and that most of it melted by early February!! And it basically all soaked into the thirsty unfrozen soil, similar to the previous winter's precipitation. In January I totally expected to see more of January's snow hang around till some time in March, but even the very deepest drifts have mostly disappeared! The winter of '07 - 2008 was the snowiest of my records, but does anyone know if that was also an elnino winter too? It seems like NINO winters are more active in my area. 

'07-'08 was a Moderate La Nina...

[Hawkeye]

Despite having one of the snowiest weeks on record, back in January, I would still finish below average for the season if we don't get any additional snow.

[Tom]

Well, there's always next year and the looks of a central based Moderate La Nina is in the cards....

[Black Hole]

What are some other moderate modoki ninas? What were they like? If nobody knows, I'll dig into it. 

[Clinton]

I'm not saying it's right by any means but the Euro weeklies suggest winter isn't over.

For entertainment purposes only but the point is it's cold and wet through March.

The JMA and GEFS showing a phase 3 in March which is cold.

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'm not saying it's right by any means but the Euro weeklies suggest winter isn't over.

For entertainment purposes only but the point is it's cold and wet through March.

The JMA and GEFS showing a phase 3 in March which is cold.

Nice work. Phase 8, where we are now, is a reasonable match to the pattern we're in so maybe we will reflect the phase 2 going forward. I'd really like one good snow before winter ends. I feel more confident the KC area and north will get another round of winter. 

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies, that have been so reliable in the past, have also struggled mightily this season.  They did latch onto the JAN cold wave but have really busted for FEB and also now it appears for MAR.  Time to move into Spring weather season.

Week 2...

 

Temp...Torchy 

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp...

[jaster220]

Just wrapped up another solid week of snow cover and temps as low as -4F. It was great to get the huge snow in January during a strong Nino. I'm fine with calling it a season and moving on. Need to be eased back into the cold anyways after such a long stretch without.