Cascadia_Wx Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm calling for an average to slightly above average month temp wise. Precip near to slightly below normal. Seemz reasonable. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 12Z EPS going with a western ridge and eastern trough scenario starting in a week like its 00Z run showed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Very nice fall morning, got down to 52, and very foggy out in the county. Sky is clear, but the horizon looks a little smoky. Sounds like they are getting the Lake Whatcom Fire under control. It got up to 45 acres, and the the crews are making a lot of headway despite very steep, rugged terrain. They have a helicopter up there now mainly just dumping on hot spots. They still have the level 2 evacuation in place for the homes close by, but hopefully they can take that down in the next couple of days. They are warning people to stay clear of the water just below the fire, they still have boulders and trees falling down the hill and into the water. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 I know its common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 minute ago, RentonHill said: I know its common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. 1 2 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 12Z EPS really likes the idea of warmth building out west. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS really likes the idea of warmth building out west. Going to be snowing in 11 short weeks! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Just now, MossMan said: Going to be snowing in 11 short weeks! Yes... and Phil will remind us soon that the ridging coming up with only last for a few minutes like all ridging around here. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, RentonHill said: I know it’s common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. The PNW region’s dust bowl decade. Good news is the step change in 2013 was driven by a change in circulation (internal variability) related to the IPWP structure. As was the 1930s dust bowl. So, at some point this interdecadal state will change/revert back, maybe sooner than we think. Or maybe later. Who knows. We’ve had at least 2 false alarms in recent years, so keep your expectations in check, but I think this backwards-evolving El Niño (inception via costero to EPAC-canonical mode) could mark the end of the post-2013 base state. It’s the best chance we’ve had so far. Time will tell, but the LP emergence is external to the WPAC for the first time in over a decade. And upon termination of the niño there will likely be a residual EPAC/WHEM rising cell but this time without the dateline convection. Which would not only be pre-2013, but pre-1998 in W2 structure. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 The bugs are screaming outside, sounds like something out of the rapture. As if nature knows the heat is coming back. 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS really likes the idea of warmth building out west. 5+ days without an EPS map from you. First sign of red paint you’re all over it. If/when this disappears, you’ll disappear with it. 6 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, Phil said: The PNW region’s dust bowl decade. Good news is the step change in 2013 was driven by a change in circulation (internal variability) related to the IPWP structure. As was the 1930s dust bowl. So, at some point this interdecadal state will change/revert back, maybe sooner than we think. Or maybe later. Who knows. We’ve had at least 2 false alarms in recent years, so keep your expectations in check, but I think this backwards-evolving El Niño (inception via costero to EPAC-canonical mode) could mark the end of the post-2013 base state. It’s the best chance we’ve had so far. Time will tell, but the LP emergence is external to the WPAC for the first time in over a decade. And upon termination of the niño there will likely be a residual EPAC/WHEM rising cell but this time without the dateline convection. Which would not only be pre-2013, but pre-1998 in W2 structure. Basically its all solar cycle??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Phil said: 5+ days without an EPS map from you. First sign of red paint you’re all over it. If/when this disappears, you’ll disappear with it. When does our raging jet start again? right after this coming ridging episode?? I could have sworn someone said beginning of September but I'm not going to go back and look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 SSW? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Back in T Town. Was raining hard on the top of Santium Pass when we went over about 9 am. One of the few times I’ve left gray skies on the east side for sun on the west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Welcome to meteorological fall. Hope everyone enjoyed the rain yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 51 minutes ago, Phil said: 5+ days without an EPS map from you. First sign of red paint you’re all over it. If/when this disappears, you’ll disappear with it. Exactly! And you are literally the exact opposite. You only post cold maps for out here and completely ignore any trends away from troughing. We balance each other and together provide full information. 1 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 45 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Basically its all solar cycle??? I wouldn’t say that. There are a myriad of push/pull factors within the system as it attempts to equilibrate to both external forcing(s) and internal structural instability. Hence the resonant and state dependent nature of its behaviors. You have GHG/solar radiative forcings which can be considered “external” in terms of emergence, then you have quasi-chaotic, inertially-resonant tendencies in heat/mass exchanges that are integral to the system and how it responds to said external forcings, and modulate the degree to which said external forcings are expressed. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm calling for an average to slightly above average month temp wise. Precip near to slightly below normal. Recent September history favors this. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: The bugs are screaming outside, sounds like something out of the rapture. As if nature knows the heat is coming back. I hear some wind blowing through the trees and some birds. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 51 minutes ago, RentonHill said: When does our raging jet start again? right after this coming ridging episode?? I could have sworn someone said beginning of September but I'm not going to go back and look Probably around the time our global cooling kicks in. Was supposed to be in 2017/2018. Still waiting 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Phil and Tim playing a forum debate ballgame before College Football starts tonight! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phil said: I wouldn’t say that. There are a myriad of push/pull factors within the system as it attempts to equilibrate to both external forcing(s) and internal structural instability. Hence the resonant and state dependent nature of its behaviors. You have GHG/solar radiative forcings which can be considered “external” in terms of emergence, then you have quasi-chaotic, inertially-resonant tendencies in heat/mass exchanges that are integral to the system and how it responds to said external forcings, and modulate the degree to which said external forcings are expressed. But these internal variables (IE: albedo and heat fluxes modulated by variability in large scale circulation/convection) import significant structural changes to radiative budget, exceeding that of both GHG and solar/aerosol forcing(s) combined. At least on intra/interdecadal timescales. And because this is inherently unpredictable, it poses the greatest threat to humanity. All “abrupt” climate change scenarios (both GHG/anthropogenic and natural) rely on this internal augmentation/amplification. The paleo data makes clear the degree to which said internal instability/red noise may be expressed, often with global consequences. Thankfully, as of now, we have not encountered high amplitude internal variability since the end of the Holocene thermal maximum. But given the growing anthropogenic/GHG forcing(s) on/within the system since the end of WWII, I question how long this will hold true. Doesn’t necessarily mean rapid warming/cooling, but a significant reorganization of the global circulation patterns and seasonality is well within the realm of possibility (and is inevitable at some point as obliquity continues to decline and the Holocene interglacial destabilizes, though hopefully that’s at least a few thousand years away). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Phil and Tim playing a forum debate ballgame before College Football starts tonight! I’m probably in much better shape than Tim. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I’m probably in much better shape than Tim. No doubt... just based on age alone. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Probably around the time our global cooling kicks in. Was supposed to be in 2017/2018. Still waiting Looking more closely, the EPS seems too slow in propagating the MJO/CCKW east of the dateline, starting around 9/10. Either that or there’ll be more bifurcation between the CCKW and LP. We’ll see if this changes as we get closer, but that’s my opinion as of now. Jet extension would begin when anomalous subsidence transits the IPWP, which (should be?) sooner than currently advertised by the EPS. Sometime in mid-September, I think? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 D**n, 18z pretty much says bye bye to the rain altogether on Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 hour ago, RentonHill said: When does our raging jet start again? right after this coming ridging episode?? I could have sworn someone said beginning of September but I'm not going to go back and look Did you mean to say troughing episode? The only ridging I see on guidance is ~ 10 days away. I think that GOA trough will build in mid-September, even if not advertised right now. We’ll see, I could be wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 The stratospheric polar vortex has formed! Net cyclonic anomaly as of 8/27. The descent into winter 2023/24 has begun. 1 2 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Back after a week, wasn’t it supposed to rain while I was gone??? It’s warm and smoky and bone dry. Still looks like summer to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 Rain for Labor Day weekend? Some forecasts show some, others show none Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: Back after a week, wasn’t it supposed to rain while I was gone??? It’s warm and smoky and bone dry. Still looks like summer to me. AQI is in the 30s... its not really smoky. And its only in the mid 70s so its not that warm. Its actually a gorgeous day. And we did have a regionwide rain event! 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Rain for Labor Day weekend? Some forecasts show some, others show none Very little rain... but Sunday and Monday should be quite cloudy with persistent marine layer both days. Could be marine layer drizzle in the morning hours too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 A bit of an over-performance at SEA today. ECMWF showed 73 but its 77 on the hour. ECMWF shows 82 tomorrow so maybe mid 80s particularly on the east side... perfect lake day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 GFS was more accurate for today... and don't think we are done with summer-like weather. Also sure the 95 is wrong. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: The stratospheric polar vortex has formed! Net cyclonic anomaly as of 8/27. The descent into winter 2023/24 has begun. What is the typical date? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2023 Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: AQI is in the 30s... its not really smoky. And its only in the mid 70s so its not that warm. Its actually a gorgeous day. And we did have a regionwide rain event! 83 here today. Pretty nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2023 Report Share Posted September 2, 2023 https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1697714105627603452?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2023 Report Share Posted September 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: What is the typical date? 8/26 average but always happens in late Aug/early Sept (since it’s solely driven by insolation). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2023 Report Share Posted September 2, 2023 78/60 on the day at SEA. That is summer perfection in fall. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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