Meatyorologist Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 Also loving the +QPF trend for tomorrow night in Seattle. Looks like that weak front in Haida Gwaii will end up surviving as it enters our area, with a strong PSCZ signal immediately behind it, and weak deformation band behind that. Might end up pushing a quarter-half inch. Last night I got donut hole'd pretty bad and only ended up with wet ground and petrichor, maybe a couple hundredths of an inch at best. Everywhere to the north, east, and south fared much better. Such is life in the rain shadow south of the Snohomish Co. plateau. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MV_snow Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said: I live near there. The weather changes pretty quickly with a sharp cut off from about 169 in Maple Valley towards the foothills. We are literally a few minutes from the Cascade foothills. Definitely true and sometimes frustrating for those that live in Maple Valley! I remember Feb 2019 where we were just barely too warm for the last major snow storm while areas a few miles to the east had snow on the ground until late March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MV_snow Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, MV_snow said: Definitely true and sometimes frustrating for those that live in Maple Valley! I remember Feb 2019 where we were just barely too warm for the last major snow storm while areas a few miles to the east had snow on the ground until late March. Technically mid-March. It was in the 70s and touched 80 here in mid-March and there was no snow left then. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 minute ago, MV_snow said: SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week. I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days. I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Really liking how the post-Equinox warm signal has been watered down to 2 or 3 seasonably mild days, followed by what will probably end up being the first jet extension of the season. Blessings to go 'round for all. Right now it's 64F and partly cloudy here with filtered sunshine, nearing 4pm. Lyphe is good. Looking like most places will be near normal temp-wise for the month in about a week. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Looking like most places will be near normal temp-wise for the month in about a week. SEA was just about perfectly normal through the 15th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days. I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter. A lot of those brown shades are pretty light, and the maps I posted earlier showing totals indicate there is still going to be precip, and more than just a trace of it. Over 2" in my area, in fact. That may still be subnormal for this 10-day period, but it’s not looking like it’s going to be parched dry until late October like last year. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: A lot of those brown shades are pretty light, and the maps I posted earlier showing totals indicate there is still going to be precip, and more than just a trace of it. Over 2" in my area, in fact. That may still be subnormal for this 10-day period, but it’s not looking like it’s going to be parched dry until late October like last year. For sure... its already WAY different than last September in my area. Its totally green again here. I was just referencing the SEA NWS being bullish on an AR event. Not saying it will be dry. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just now, TT-SEA said: For sure... its already WAY different than last September in my area. Its totally green again here. I was just referencing the SEA NWS being bullish on an AR event. Not saying it will be dry. I think they are putting way too much faith in the GFS operational, which basically stands alone on that. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 65/54 0.09” of rain today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Chilly wind blowing at soccer practice this evening. This person has quite the view I’m sure. 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 66° here at Eastside Tacoma Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 And there it is, the first mention of the s-word for the season. Quote OKANAGAN CONNECTOR - MERRITT TO KELOWNA SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT 3:37 PM PDT Monday 18 September 2023 High elevation snow possible Tuesday night over Pennask Summit Timeframe: Tuesday Night. Location: Near Pennask Summit on Highway 97C. Threat: Possible snowfall of 2 to 4 cm. A low pressure system will spread precipitation to the southern interior on Tuesday. Freezing levels will lower Tuesday evening close to 1700 metres allowing the precipitation to possibly fall as snow over Pennask Summit on Highway 97C. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 cm are possible near the summit by Wednesday morning. Weather in the mountains can change suddenly resulting in hazardous driving conditions. Road conditions are available at drivebc.ca. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm. 1 1 3 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: And there it is, the first mention of the s-word for the season. I’m actually legit curious… does the term “termination dust”still being used? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I need to see the ECMWF jump on board... the 12Z run was drier than normal over the next 10 days. I would not be surprised if the 00Z run comes in much wetter. There’ll be some sort of compromise. Like it typically does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, Cloud said: I’m actually legit curious… does the term “termination dust”still being used? I think that’s mostly an Alaska thing. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, MV_snow said: SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week. The GFS op runs have been outliers for the period that it’s showing the AR so I’m surprise the NWS is quite bullish on it. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but without the Euro support on it, it should really means nothing atm. 12z and 18z precip ensembles. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Thunder98 said: Southern parts of OC is still socked in Parts of the central valley were gloomier than Seattle today. @AlTahoe how were those thunderstorms today? RadarScope loop showed a small one on the south end of the lake amidst a cacophony of convection. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Already down to 47 degrees! 1 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM much closer tonight. GFS still shows decent rain but has backed off quite a bit on totals... not really an AR set up. GEM keeps most of the rain offshore but much closer than the 12Z run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted September 19, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Significant rain totals on the GFS by next Wednesday. But its spread out more from Sunday through mid-week. 5 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Some double barrel low action right there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run. With the track record between the GEM and Euro. I fully expect the Euro to have similar solutions or within the ballpark. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 57 minutes ago, MossMan said: Already down to 47 degrees! Will our foothill friend have a frost to complain about tomorrow morning? 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Will our foothill friend have a frost to complain about tomorrow morning? Lmao. Down to 43, but clouds are on the way to save me! 1 1 1 1 2 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Lmao. Down to 43, but clouds are on the way to save me! 43??? I'll trade places with you Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 50F and a really nice night. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 First one of the season. Change is afoot. 7 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 I see blue popping up on models, and yet no snow_wizard. Hope he's okay 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: First one of the season. Change is afoot. It’s coming!!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 The only precip I've had is my child's bed. 2 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 9 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GEM shows less but this is a big increase from its 12Z run. 8 hours ago, Cloud said: With the track record between the GEM and Euro. I fully expect the Euro to have similar solutions or within the ballpark. Pretty much what I had anticipated from the 00z Euro after seeing the GEM. In fact, appears to be a lot closer to the GFS. Look like a pretty solid chance to end the month with appreciable rainfall. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Blessings are back baby!!!! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, The Blob said: The only precip I've had is my child's bed. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 50F now and 49F at the nearby Wunderground station. Coolest morning we've had yet. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Pretty much what I had anticipated from the 00z Euro after seeing the GEM. In fact, appears to be a lot closer to the GFS. Look like a pretty solid chance to end the month with appreciable rainfall. Not enough for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Skagit Weather Posted September 19, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 The aurora came out last night between about 8 and 11 pm! 16 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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