October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[LowerGarfield]

Only 23F outside. Quite cold.

[crf450ish]

18 hours ago, MossMan said:

Lovely morning at the lake earlier. 

Looks like a perfect setting for a cold plunge!!!

[the_convergence_zone]

Light frost this morning, 37.6. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

22 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

This is more like it. HIO got down to the 20s this morning. Still at freezing at 9am.

Crazy temperature spread this morning due to the east winds near the Gorge. It’s 44 in Camas and Troutdale but only 24 in Vernonia. 20 degree difference.

Another cold morning with some areas in the 20s. Back to back mornings where there’s a crazy temperature spread. Like yesterday, Troutdale is at 44 but Vernonia still at 24.

[Skagit Weather]

The 5 freezes I've had this month is now the most I've recorded in October (surpassing the 4 I had in October 2020). That year I had more freezes in October than November. Hopefully that doesn't happen this year. Low of 29F this morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

54 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has been a cold week. 

A couple more days of beautiful sunny weather and cold temperatures to close out October before the rain arrives. At least the rain will hold off until Wednesday so there will be dry trick or treating Halloween weather tomorrow night.

[ShawniganLake]

6 consecutive freezes here. 31F this morning 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

6 consecutive freezes here. 31F this morning 

6 consecutive freezes here, too. 29.5°F.

I really don’t think I will equal or best that total next month… particularly considering that another clear, frosty night or two is on tap.

Correction: 5 freezes. Starting to lose count.

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

6 consecutive freezes here. 31F this morning 

Any snow left? 

[Doinko]

Another freeze at PDX, and finally a freeze here with a low of 30 degrees

[Winterdog]

A low of 26 for freeze #5 and another glorious day ahead.  Currently 27.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Any snow left? 

Still lots in the shade.  Not so much in sun exposed areas.  Still probably 2”+ on the shady side streets.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Early taste of El Nino. Major blessings for our California friends. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Equitable distribution.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

6 consecutive freezes here, too. 29.5°F.

I really don’t think I will equal or best that total next month… particularly considering that another clear, frosty night or two is on tap.

Correction: 5 freezes. Starting to lose count.

Impressive! I’ve never experienced that in Oct.

Pacific jet does look stronger next month. Warm/wet is my best guess, possibility of a more consolidated pacific jet around the 3rd week of the month. Windstorm?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really stellar past few days here. I’ve been pleased by how nicely gradients have been relaxing at night, allowing much of the area away from the immediate Gorge to score multiple freezes.

Friday was cool with morning fog and a chilly breeze in the afternoon. 53/35 spread (midnight low)

Saturday was sunny and cool with a hard freeze in the morning then a somewhat breezy afternoon. 54/28 spread.

Yesterday was a little milder but still cool, 56/32 spread. Afternoon east winds.

This morning was a nice surprise with gradients relaxing enough for even colder temps than the night before. Clear and frosty with a low of 30. Currently sunny with light winds, and 42.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has been a cold week. 

19°F? Man it’s amazing how quickly you guys transition from summer to winter. I could only dream of that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Impressive! I’ve never experienced that in Oct.

Pacific jet does look stronger next month. Warm/wet is my best guess, possibility of a more consolidated pacific jet around the 3rd week of the month. Windstorm?

Look at this... I generally agree with this assessment. November is one of the wettest months of the year, even though the next couple of weeks seem like they will be very wet, at face value it is really not much above average. I wouldn't be surprised to see some decent troughing around Thanksgiving and then maybe a week of ridging. Would be nice to parlay that into an early December retrograde. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS la-la land nothing to see here at Day 10 just your usual run of the mill pedestrian 950mb low offshore.

[Skagit Weather]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Equitable distribution.

Looks dry here. Shows less than inch of rain in the first 10 days of the month. Drought! But considering it was showing 3 times that amount for the 06z, I have very little faith.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early taste of El Nino. Major blessings for our California friends. 

El Niño is amazing Brings precip to places most in need. And releases stored heat from IPWP (yes, El Niño technically cools the globe).

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's your daily 12z GFS re-cap.

10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phishy Wx]

17 this morning

3 nights in a row in the teens

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Yikes…Quite dry for my area. 

[Phishy Wx]

hired a snow removal service for this winter because I have a lot of business travel coming up in december and january and my wife does not want to deal with it when I'm gone.

so with that in mind we'll probably get hammered this winter since I'm paying for it.  they only come when more than 2" falls

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at this... I generally agree with this assessment. November is one of the wettest months of the year, even though the next couple of weeks seem like they will be very wet, at face value it is really not much above average. I wouldn't be surprised to see some decent troughing around Thanksgiving and then maybe a week of ridging. Would be nice to parlay that into an early December retrograde. 

I could envision this progression. Fits well with possible range of dynamic outcomes from the current base state.

El Niño/+IOD system is very healthy/well-coupled now, and the emergent patterns are beginning to reflect that.

[Front Ranger]

According to the NWS, OLM only bottomed out at 23 the other morning, not 20. So more in line with surrounding locations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG hit 26 this morning. Another single digit start in Burns. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Affordable home prices out on the high desert. Plenty of options of dubious quality under $200K. Here's a livable pad. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/376-W-Washington-St-Burns-OR-97720/86322213_zpid/

[Tanis Leach]

The 2023-24 Willamette Valley Winter Weather forecast is out. This was presented at the Winter Weather Conference hosted by the Oregon Chapter of The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and thank you again for hosting me, and all the other forecasters.

Predictions only: https://youtu.be/8qIO35TdZ-o

Technical version (same presentation as the conference): https://youtu.be/jPNRjI5NoIs

A full report (22 pages) is in the description (link wise) of the technical version. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Tanis Leach said:

The 2023-24 Willamette Valley Winter Weather forecast is out. This was presented at the Winter Weather Conference hosted by the Oregon Chapter of The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and thank you again for hosting me, and all the other forecasters.

Predictions only: https://youtu.be/8qIO35TdZ-o

Technical version (same presentation as the conference): https://youtu.be/jPNRjI5NoIs

A full report (22 pages) is in the description (link wise) of the technical version. 

Thanks for being a good representation of the South Willamette Valley.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Yikes…Quite dry for my area. 

Given the persistent troughing offshore, it will be heavily SW flow in the next cycle. The rain shadow will position near the climatological normal and won't move around much. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at this... I generally agree with this assessment. November is one of the wettest months of the year, even though the next couple of weeks seem like they will be very wet, at face value it is really not much above average. I wouldn't be surprised to see some decent troughing around Thanksgiving and then maybe a week of ridging. Would be nice to parlay that into an early December retrograde. 

I knew it was quite cold, but kinda forgot just how impressive last November was for much of the PNW.

• Coldest November for SEA since 1985
• Same for OLM, and third coldest on record
• Older records are kinda jacked up, but looks like a top 3 cold November for Silver Falls

[the_convergence_zone]

14 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Who's ready for what I think is going to be an action packed soaker of a run? Yeah.

00z ECMWF in 10 minutes

We've had a nice run this fall of the bigger storms coming on weekdays with pleasant weather on the weekends. 

That will definitely not be the case this coming weekend, although I think I might be able to squeeze a trail run in on Sunday morning during the more showery postfrontal period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I knew it was quite cold, but kinda forgot just how impressive last November was for much of the PNW.

• Coldest November for SEA since 1985
• Same for OLM, and third coldest on record
• Older records are kinda jacked up, but looks like a top 3 cold November for Silver Falls

Yes, it was a very chilly November. Just consistently cool/cold throughout. Our warmest temp for the month was 51 and it was our coldest MONTH since February 2019. Most of the analogs favor a warmer and potentially wet November this year. Though both 2014 and 2015 had cold snaps in November, so it can definitely happen during a +ENSO. The coldest day of the season in 2019-20 was November 30th too. 

[Cold Snap]

Low of 29 here this morning. 5th freeze.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 31 this morning. Currently 50 degrees

[Kolk1604]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early taste of El Nino. Major blessings for our California friends. 

Should probably stop posting those fake maps and giving them false hope. 

Maybe northern California is wet, but dry south of that. 

[SouthHillFrosty]