November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m close to Pepto! 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So a blizzard then? 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So a blizzard then? 

This is an insane solution, but at least it isn't just the Goofus that is out to lunch. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

29 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This would be me in Aberdeen trying to walk the streets in the 90 mph winds while trying to make a snowman

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

This would be me in Aberdeen trying to walk the streets in the 90 mph winds while trying to make a snowman

I hate to ruin the fantasy snow party, but the lowland snow is not from the windstorm, it's from a secondary low that is 24-48 hours behind that. Temp is in the 40s during the hurricane force winds. 

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I hate to ruin the fantasy snow party, but the lowland snow is not from the windstorm, it's from a secondary low that is 24-48 hours behind that. Temp is in the 40s during the hurricane force winds. 

Well mr fancy degree you just ruined a child's only chance at his make-a-wish dream. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

Makes me wonder if the owners of Seahawks forums get letters from Pete Carroll expressing frustration that non football coaches are damaging his reputation by speculating about the Seahawks?

Something tells me they dont.

[High Desert Mat?]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OHHHHHHHHHH

 

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble showing some potential.

No southeast ridge. Throw it out. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

36 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I hate to ruin the fantasy snow party, but the lowland snow is not from the windstorm, it's from a secondary low that is 24-48 hours behind that. Temp is in the 40s during the hurricane force winds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Control always delivers. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Let me just say that I am also highly entertained despite the GFS managing to push the limits of the laws of physics yet again. 

To be fair, a few weeks ago the GFS scored its first coup in…ever?

Check out the verification scores. That blip where the GFS exceeded the ECMWF is not a common occurrence. But..who knows?

Red=GFS. Blue=ECMWF.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

No southeast ridge. Throw it out. 

Those will be in short supply this winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Ooooh, purple!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

Who specifically has emailed you? I’m curious.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

the 'ol Euro Ensemble Control

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Who specifically has emailed you? I’m curious.

Harry Wappler…From the beyond…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Control members look good IMBY. Pepto!

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Do you just mean going forward? Because there has definitely been some cold around recently. 

What I’m more or less saying is the upcoming pattern is not great because it will strengthen the PV/+NAM with time and make it increasingly difficult to get arctic air into the middle latitudes. Note the equatorward EP flux developing over the next two weeks.

That **doesn’t** mean transient cold waves aren’t possible in the meantime. There is more to it than just the PV/NAM (especially earlier in the winter) but precedent is not very good for the West in the long run, looking back an analogous patterns.

Of course there is time for this to change as well. But it’s easier for the west to score early in years with niño/+IOD base states. And this year it is a particularly strong base state. So if I lived up there I’d want to see a perturbed NAM/PV, and strong MJO/augmented MC right out of the gate. But, anything is theoretically possible.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Blue Spaghetti chart time

 

Well at least the upward trend has finally stopped. Or at least decelerated.

[iFred]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Harry Wappler…From the beyond…

It was the President of the Rich Marriott fan club, a Mr. Clifford M.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

It was the President of the Rich Marriott fan club, a Mr. Clifford M.

I would have NEVER guessed….

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm glad most of the pro mets in this DMA seem to like snow. Dylan Robichaud especially enjoys winter weather and is very informative about it. John Mayer (not that one) seems to enjoy it as well. Cozart did a great job too and now he's in Portland and loves the winter weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Afternoon GFS fun

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EPS got some dogs in 'em

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The GFS ensemble is better than the morning run. Should be more colder members than it and hopefully some Magic -8 balls for people in the low elevations.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Afternoon GFS fun

6.2… not bad!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much stronger Alaska block signal on this one. Possibly some backdoor/mountain wave potential.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is intriguing. It seems like some members are picking up on some sort of backdoor cold signal.

Avg surface temp dropped 3F from the morning run too. Hopefully that downward trend continues.

[Gradient Keeper]

Might be some Night Shiftin' going on fairly soon.

31.1 low temp

00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is intriguing. It seems like some members are picking up on some sort of backdoor cold signal.

Time to check the ensembles specifically the surface temps for the Columbia Basin to see if either backdoor cold air is moving into eastern Washington, or a signal for cold pool development. One of my favorite things to look for.

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 41 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Now a 5F drop from the previous run at this time. Columbia Basin stations also...

[umadbro]

26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Afternoon GFS fun

Looks like a limp system if you ask me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Looks like a limp system if you ask me.

Ask your physician if Viagra™ is right for you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quite a bit cooler.

[Front Ranger]

Phil - I assume this is good?

[RentonHill]

it aint nothin

[HuskyMaestro]

47F and rainy, such perfect sweater weather with coffee. That favorite time of year again where I can get lost in looking at Hour 300+ maps and get no work done lol

[snow_wizard]

I pulled off a respectably cool 48-31 today.  The min was 6 degrees lower than OLM!

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil - I assume this is good?

More than a little bit surprising all things considered.

[snow_wizard]

Some really remarkable color on the trees right now.  We have a lot of bitter cherry around here and it's on fire.  One of the few native trees that turn red here.  For those who aren't familiar with those trees they turn red, orange, and yellow.  Unusually vivid this year.  There are some stands of cottonwood that are putting on quite a show as well.