November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

2010 was so much fun and so unexpected. I often go to Cliff's blog to reminisce.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html

The models totally missed the snowfall in the Puget Sound area less than a day out.  Terrible model performance on that.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Easy to forget how good last winter was. I get people mostly get excited about big snowfalls +4” and up…but last winter was pretty good. Had frequent snow events here despite never having a snowfall bigger than 2”. 
 It was solidly cold throughout the winter as well, and the blast we had in late December was potent. The snowfall was hit or miss for some people though. The snowfall in Late Nov-Early Dec wasn’t as good for people below 200’. 

Last winter was my snowiest year since 2008 with a total of 16.25 inches. However I only ever had a max depth of 4 inches and the snow was spread across 16 days. Coulda been a legendary winter if it was a bit colder.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well hello...

this El Nino, although strong seems like its so short it will never fully 'wash out' the long term La Nina effects of the past 3 years before another La Nina starts.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking at how the population at large is doing and housing costs right now, you could be a doing a heck of a lot worse than buying land next to a nature preserve in the Portland metro and building your own custom home on it. It’s all relative.

#prayers4matt

#1%problems

[Phil]

Assuming the big -EPO/W-Canada cold outbreak comes to fruition, it would once again resemble the pattern progression in older niños that didn’t evolve out of the WPAC. Where-as most niños in the 1990s/2000s tended towards +EPO in November.

Of the analogs based on the 12z EPS 500mb mean, 1965/66 is far and away the best match. But interestingly there is transient homogeneity w/ 1986/87 and 1957/58 as well, both of which happened to be first year mod/strong niños following 3-year -ENSOs.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

Even some mixed precip with it

 

Oh please please please. This is because Kayla and Brian are back on the fourms, isn't it?

[MossMan]

Guess I will be getting the plow on the mower this coming weekend! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this El Nino, although strong seems like its so short it will never fully 'wash out' the long term La Nina effects of the past 3 years before another La Nina starts.

But there are no “La Niña effects” present now. The atmosphere is fully coupled to niño/IOD LP state and has been for awhile.

The upcoming pattern is actually a good match to a phase 8/1 MJO transition (which is symbiotic w/ a niño base state since it represents a weak Walker Cell and MC subsidence).

[Omegaraptor]

43 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Pretty decent ensemble improvement on the 12z EPS. Last nights 00z EPS ensemble average gave me a -3.7C high temp on Thanksgiving, and the 12z ensemble average is -4.8C! Wouldn't mind a cold Thanksgiving with a decent amount of snow on the ground, although I don't have weatherbell so I wouldn't know how much snow they're saying currently. 

Welcome and nice to have someone from Sunriver! I go on trips over there once or twice a year usually. Most here will probably be quite jealous of your weather/climate to say the least.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

This is what the Euro control showed for just that first storm which is the windstorm.

I told my wife just now so for SE WA at least it will not happen.

[Snownerd3000]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models totally missed the snowfall in the Puget Sound area less than a day out.  Terrible model performance on that.

I was in Portland at the time and followed his nowcast. The surface low that spun up off the Olympics was the wild card if I recall. What a fun storm. Wish I was up here for that storm. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW - Phil, I am not saying your ENSO prognostication is wrong, just showing what some long range ENSO models are showing, which isn't shocking coming off what will likely be a STRONG Nino. 

All good, I won’t be a buzzkill for now.

But FYI, assuming ENSO evolution traces that of previous niño/-PMM years like 57/58 or 65/66, it will probably take until spring 2024 for seasonal models to catch onto the lack of a La Niña transition. Perfect scenario for “spring barrier” problems. 

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Last winter was my snowiest year since 2008 with a total of 16.25 inches. However I only ever had a max depth of 4 inches and the snow was spread across 16 days. Coulda been a legendary winter if it was a bit colder.

Last year was infuriating at times. I kept expecting a huge snowfall of 6-12 inches. The multiple trace to 2 inch snowfalls really teased us. I actually do have high expectations this season based on all the good winters lately. I feel our climate has changed for the better in winter and worse in summer. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Guess I will be getting the plow on the mower this coming weekend! 

Too early! Wait until after the windstorm. 

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Assuming the big -EPO/W-Canada cold outbreak comes to fruition, it would once again resemble the pattern progression in older niños that didn’t evolve out of the WPAC. Where-as most niños in the 1990s/2000s tended towards +EPO in November.

Of the analogs based on the 12z EPS 500mb mean, 1965/66 is far and away the best match. But interestingly there is transient homogeneity w/ 1986/87 and 1957/58 as well, both of which happened to be first year mod/strong niños following 3-year -ENSOs.

65/66 wouldn't be terrible

[Phil]

The 18z GFS is not nearly as progressive over the NPAC (at least early on). Should produce a much colder solution this run, more in line with the 12z GEFS/EPS.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Last year was infuriating at times. I kept expecting a huge snowfall of 6-12 inches. The multiple trace to 2 inch snowfalls really teased us. I actually do have high expectations this season based on all the good winters lately. I feel our climate has changed for the better in winter and worse in summer. 

Yeah, it was the exact opposite up here. Only 4 days of accumulating snowfall, but one of those was awesome which made all the difference. 2.5" on 12/19 and 6" on 12/20 made me pretty happy even if it didn't snow much on any other day.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Looking at pepto pink models 7+ days out is just a reminder to restock pepto in my medicine cabinet for the roller coaster of runs ahead. 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Last year was infuriating at times. I kept expecting a huge snowfall of 6-12 inches. The multiple trace to 2 inch snowfalls really teased us. I actually do have high expectations this season based on all the good winters lately. I feel our climate has changed for the better in winter and worse in summer. 

Except that is just typical intradecadal variability, not some permanent change. Wasn’t long ago the warmest anomalies were focused in the cold season.

In fact there’s a good chance the current seasonal tendencies in general circulation will reverse entirely when the IPWP extends again, which should be very soon (probably either in 2024 or 2025 is my guess, this niño could be the beginning of that process).

[lowlandsnow]

Looks like the storm makes landfall too far north on the gfs. WINTER IS CANCELLED

[Ken in Wood Village]

I was looking at the end of the 12Z Euro model and saw something. I circled it in black. You can see another Low-pressure system coming down from Alaska. Probably reinforcing the cold air and picking up moisture along the way. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Looking at pepto pink models 7+ days out is just a reminder to restock pepto in my medicine cabinet for the roller coaster of runs ahead. 

Interesting that Pepto ends up turning runs BLACK.

[Ellsworb]

i'm all in on the model riding for the next few months!  LET'S GO!

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 18z GFS is not nearly as progressive over the NPAC (at least early on). Should produce a much colder solution this run, more in line with the 12z GEFS/EPS.

Well…halfway there at least. Still more progressive than other models, but a step in the right direction vs 12z

Maybe 00z will complete the cave.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z JMA out to day 8 looks promising as well. Cold Arctic air looks poised to drop down over the PNW just in time for Thanksgiving.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Op not yet recognizing the pattern change with strong Alaskan ridging as the Ensembles have definitely latched onto. GEFS running now....

[Christensen87]

Yeah, GFS still not budging. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’m an anti GFS until this model shows snow!

[LowerGarfield]

26 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Last year was infuriating at times. I kept expecting a huge snowfall of 6-12 inches. The multiple trace to 2 inch snowfalls really teased us. I actually do have high expectations this season based on all the good winters lately. I feel our climate has changed for the better in winter and worse in summer. 

Ditto for last year here. I was ready for that year to be done because at my location we had lots and lots of little accumulating snowfalls, but only exceeded two inches three times all winter. and only had greater than 1 inch three other times. Our max event (2 day) total was 2.20 from Dec 19th/20th.

The previous year we had several events of greater than 2-3 inches and once or twice with 5 inches (but I don't have a full record). The year before that was also a Nina but I hadn't learned how to measure snow yet and we had some incredible events that winter where the snow had to have been halfway to my knees.

In short, I'm the type where I'd rather have 1-3 events of greater than 2 or 3 inches than the 20 exactly days of accumulating snowfall (15 if trace is excluded) that I had last winter. 2 inches is about the amount you can play in. 1.5 is sort of the bare minimum but 2 inches or more is what you really have to have.

We only had to shovel like 2x last year whereas the previous two we were doing it like every over week it seemed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhh.................

[Phil]

The goofus is always uber-progressive with everything until the last possible second. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 7 (4-run trend) Robbie likey!

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Yeah, GFS still not budging. 

It moved in the right direction at least.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

29 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I was looking at the end of the 12Z Euro model and saw something. I circled it in black. You can see another Low-pressure system coming down from Alaska. Probably reinforcing the cold air and picking up moisture along the way. 

Shows up when you zoom in

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Last winter was my snowiest year since 2008 with a total of 16.25 inches. However I only ever had a max depth of 4 inches and the snow was spread across 16 days. Coulda been a legendary winter if it was a bit colder.

Had 7.5” of snow here last winter total. Overall I remember you having more than me pretty much every time, and there was one particular snow event in late February I think that nailed NE Tacoma and federal way, but we barely had anything here. Can’t remember what day it was though. 

[LowerGarfield]

I much prefer winters or events like this one I had Feb 15, 2021. Probably had at least 6-7 inches and Lewiston at a lower elevation had a daily record of 4 inches that day. Last year was nothing like that here but I was glad that Portland finally got a major event.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 8 (4-run trend)

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Had 7.5” of snow here last winter total. Overall I remember you having more than me pretty much every time, and there was one particular snow event in late February I think that nailed NE Tacoma and federal way, but we barely had anything here. Can’t remember what day it was though. 

I think it was the night of the 13th? We woke up to a bit of snow on the 14th morning down here before the snow storm on the 22nd/23rd

[HuskyMaestro]

Gonna be an honor to model-ride with you folks for my second winter as an actual user

May we all get blessed with the pepto!!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Soon enough the Op runs will join the cold wagon.