Doinko Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Already down to 29, we were about 37 this time yesterday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Kind of seems like the LRC is in full effect this season. The first half of November was a wet torch and then cold and dry just like late October. 'Tis the season. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 The EPS control picks up where the operational ECMWF leaves off and comes dangerously close to delivering. Well worth keeping an eye on. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Down to 30 here in spite of a lot of clouds this evening. Pretty impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The EPS control picks up where the operational ECMWF leaves off and comes dangerously close to delivering. Well worth keeping an eye on. I see it! 3 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I see it! It actually does deliver at the very end. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 No doubt we have a shot at something coming up. A lot of pretty cold members there. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 This type of behavior in our weather reminds more of what you would normally see in an ENSO neutral winter. The big temperature fluctuations and the bone dry to soaking wet regime being repeated. If that possible SSW happens later in December we just might pull off something pretty good. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At least the first half of December this seems to be a lock. I mean the first week of the month is going to torch. A good bet the 2nd half of the month is cooler and drier, could be setting up a big first half of January. I think January might be too late, EWT-MJO climo begins to change between the winter solstice and New Years. That said, technically anything is possible. I’m looking hard for something anomalous or interesting in the pattern to cling to and project forward from, but I still can’t find it. Possibly my own shortcoming there, but I wouldn’t bet on much cold in North America this winter. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 I'm thinking we may see a classic progression from an AR(or two) followed by blocking and cold pattern. Then jet suppression. That may lead to a sharp temp gradient and favor Olympia-Tacoma northward. I believe the ECMWF ENS Control shows something similar. We've seen this play out many times in the Winter after an AR. It seems to be more common during December. Hmmm.... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Wow. Check out the EPS for Portland! Look how many members are exceeding 6 even 7 inches of rain! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Got some dawgs in there again. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 11/28/23 I had 46.8/32.4 This morning I had 32.9. Looks like it's going to be very wet coming up. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 31 and clear here this morning... east wind has died. 06Z was not nearly as wet with the main event next week due to a low forming and bending the AR moisture plume back to the west. Probably just an outlier though and it will be different on the 12Z run. It also shows another AR event towards the end of the run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Pretty decent fake cold here. The last several days have seen: 36/18 30/18 28/25 32/17 32/16 Yesterday it cleared off and there’s a line of white on the mountains where the clouds have been hanging out. Expecting 4-8” of snow Thursday night through Sunday, then rain and temps approaching 40. Very different from last year where our average November high was 33.7. 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Looks like Salem and Eugene both hit 24 before the clouds moderated them up to 30. 5 straight sub 25 lows at EUG. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 30 at Seattle 28 at PDX on the hour. Redmond, Burns, and ROME all sitting at 8. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At least the first half of December this seems to be a lock. I mean the first week of the month is going to torch. A good bet the 2nd half of the month is cooler and drier, could be setting up a big first half of January. This is my feeling as well. Best chance for cold and snow might line up with Christmas and New Years given the repeating pattern we have been in for the last couple months. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Foggy and 30.7˚F. First night IMBY that has managed a freeze despite lack of clear conditions. Pretty decent fake cold episode. Been a while since we’ve had one here. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This my feeling as well. Best chance for cold and snow might line up with Christmas and New Years given the repeating pattern we have been in for the last couple months. Pretty amazing the central willamette valley will end November solidly below normal for temps and precip after such a warm wet start to the month. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 6 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Lots and lots of rain on the way from tonight to Tuesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Lots and lots of rain on the way from tonight to Tuesday. For SoCal? 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 26 again tonight, been a really nice stretch. Hopefully we get some good rain! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: For SoCal? For Portland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 It was all the way down to 28 degrees when I went to bed. 32 now that some clouds rolled in overnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 24F currently. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Not sure its worth the effort to charge the blower and shovel when rain will wash it out quickly. will be nice to see first snow of the season though 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 On this date in 2006, 2014, 2022, and about 10 minutes ago. Oh and the PNA. Low of 28. Currently 29. 4 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Low of 35F this morning 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Well my grass has finally stopped growing. 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Freezing Fog and Cloudy, 24 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Low of 26, currently 32f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Will be nice to finally get this BS inversion out of here and have a pleasant return to Tim's personal hell. I for one welcome the return of our AR overlords and the snow they bring'eth (for now). Let's see what else this El Nina has in store. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 Totals have increased through Day 5 on the EMCWF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 This is amazing. From Spokane, WA. 9 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 In 13/14 and 14/15, lows in the teens were standard affair. But I’m out of practice after years of torching. This AM felt legitimately uncomfortable to me, when in years past I would’ve loved it. I think I’m getting old. Or worse, turning into Tim. 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Phil said: This is amazing. From Spokane, WA. I drove to/from Spokane over the weekend and the freezing fog in the area was no joke. It was dark out, but it looked like rime ice was forming on the road signs along the freeway. Not like this, though. Cool picture. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 15 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Totals have increased through Day 5 on the EMCWF I'll be perfectly content if Whatcom County remains marginally within the Olympic rainshadow as indicated on the maps...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2023 Report Share Posted November 29, 2023 If it’s going to happen this winter, it’ll be from this. Quite possibly the best chance for the PNW since constructive interference w/ niño LP resumes in earnest come Jan. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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