December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

.33” so far on the day, 2.19” for the month. 
Drizzle and 49 degrees. 
 

[Chewbacca Defense]

.79" yesterday, and .45" so far today with the temp holding around 50.

I took a snapshot of the rain amounts so far for Whatcom County, some impressive totals up around Baker lake for only 5 days in.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

.79" yesterday, and .45" so far today with the temp holding around 50.

I took a snapshot of the rain amounts so far for Whatcom County, some impressive totals up around Baker lake for only 5 days in.

Can you post that link?

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you post that link?

Link

[the_convergence_zone]

2.81” storm total with 1.22” of that since midnight. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Have been here for 26 hours now treating water…lol 

 

[Slushy Inch]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1.36” for this event. 2.15” on the month. Wettest it has been here in a while. 48 degrees 

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like PDX’s 67/56 yesterday was the second warmest December day on record by mean, only surpassed by Christmas 1980.

Portland also pulled off a warmer average than Phoenix yesterday.

[Blizzard777]

56* 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Stuff like this in the winter very often leads to cold later.  Very 1990 ish vibe.  That year has been coming up in the analogs quite a bit.

1990? Not gonna happen dude.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

1990? Not gonna happen dude.

Jealous 

[fubario]

Called in sick to build an ark.

[MossMan]

Seeing reports from my FB friends that live near or on the Stillaguamish River and they are saying that it’s much higher than predicted and is taking them by surprise. I just drove over it on I-5 in Arlington and yeah it’s as high as I have seen it in a while. Going to be interesting. 

[Blizzard777]

18 minutes ago, fubario said:

Called in sick to build an ark.

Here’s a tip !! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.52" overnight. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I can see the wall of moisture and it's headed this way. Won't be long before we get our turn in the firehose in the south valley. 57F and just about ready for some heavy rain to get going.

[fubario]

21 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Here’s a tip !! 

Straight talk....don't think i've ever seen such a sustained moderate rain ...for this long since i've been in the PNW (23 years).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I can see the wall of moisture and it's headed this way. Won't be long before we get our turn in the firehose in the south valley. 57F and just about ready for some heavy rain to get going.

[Phil]

Pattern continues to trend worse w/rt to wave driving and PV disruption. Anticyclones descending into Siberia, no autonomous Scandinavian ridging, and N/NW Pacific ridging all but preclude a SSW before the end of the year.

And Niño/+IOD conspire to force subsidence over the MC/IPWP which prevents the MJO from slowing/deepening, so what subseasonal components are present don’t fully dislodge the Niño/LP influence.

With the exception of CA/SW US (and E/SE US later in winter) this winter could be a snoozefest.

[Skagit Weather]

I thought it was going to rain at some point, but it never came. Probably one of the more impressive (and poorly forecast) rain shadows I can remember in my location. Going to end up with ~0.5" from it which is about 25-30% of what the models were forecasting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice little system. SCORE

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Pattern continues to trend worse w/rt to wave driving and PV disruption. Anticyclones descending into Siberia, no autonomous Scandinavian ridging, and N/NW Pacific ridging all but preclude a SSW before the end of the year.

And Niño/+IOD conspire to force subsidence over the MC/IPWP which prevents the MJO from slowing/deepening, so what subseasonal components are present don’t fully dislodge the Niño/LP influence.

With the exception of CA/SW US (and E/SE US later in winter) this winter could be a snoozefest.

Seems that way. We've even lost the CFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As horrible as the pattern looks coming up, the PNW actually gets more cool air than anywhere else in the lower 48 over the next couple weeks. lol

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Picked up 1.26" of rain between 8 PM and 12 AM last night, was on track for some impressive rain totals. Then the winds kicked in, the temperature shot up nearly 10°F, and I've only picked up 0.92" since midnight. 5.44" for the month so far. 

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

13 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I thought it was going to rain at some point, but it never came. Probably one of the more impressive (and poorly forecast) rain shadows I can remember in my location. Going to end up with ~0.5" from it which is about 25-30% of what the models were forecasting.

Wow that's nuts.  Been raining al night and morning in Seattle proper.  Has tapered off a bit but would still consider it moderate rain.

[Winterdog]

I have standing water in the usual places now after 2.12" of rain since yesterday.  Raining now and 51 which is the low for the day.  It was 58 at 2am for the high so far.  Total precip so far this month 4.12".  Calm winds. Bare trees, gray hair.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As horrible as the pattern looks coming up, the PNW actually gets more cool air than anywhere else in the lower 48 over the next couple weeks. lol

Nope.

Worst possible pattern for W-Canada cold loading.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nope.

Worst possible pattern for W-Canada cold loading.

Might be a long winter....

[AlTahoe]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pattern continues to trend worse w/rt to wave driving and PV disruption. Anticyclones descending into Siberia, no autonomous Scandinavian ridging, and N/NW Pacific ridging all but preclude a SSW before the end of the year.

And Niño/+IOD conspire to force subsidence over the MC/IPWP which prevents the MJO from slowing/deepening, so what subseasonal components are present don’t fully dislodge the Niño/LP influence.

With the exception of CA/SW US (and E/SE US later in winter) this winter could be a snoozefest.

I think we can scrap Cali and the southwest from the list. There has never been a strong east based El Nino this dry for Nov and now looking like most of Dec for California besides 1986-1987. That was one of the driest Winters recorded. We have never had a wet winter when Nov and Dec are bone dry. models keep showing a huge ridge off of our coast through the 15th and keep kicking the can down the road. This feels like 2015-2016 repeat with a wet pnw and dry southern cal. I still haven't recorded a snowfall which is a new latest record for me. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nope.

Worst possible pattern for W-Canada cold loading.

Is it me or does this map look exactly like what you'd see when one describes the impact of El Nino to our country's weather?

Wet and cold in the southeast.  Dryer and warmer up here.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

40 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I thought it was going to rain at some point, but it never came. Probably one of the more impressive (and poorly forecast) rain shadows I can remember in my location. Going to end up with ~0.5" from it which is about 25-30% of what the models were forecasting.

I got lucky with the shadow this time, it shifted East and North. I am sorry it found you 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I think we can scrap Cali and the southwest from the list. There has never been a strong east based El Nino this dry for Nov and now looking like most of Dec for California besides 1986-1987. That was one of the driest Winters recorded. We have never had a wet winter when Nov and Dec are bone dry. models keep showing a huge ridge off of our coast through the 15th and keep kicking the can down the road. This feels like 2015-2016 repeat with a wet pnw and dry southern cal. I still haven't recorded a snowfall which is a new latest record for me. 

That’s because we haven’t seen the deposition of westerly momentum into the STJ yet. That should change as we go through the month.

And overall +dAAMt to +AAM trend is now present across guidance.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Is it me or does this map look exactly like what you'd see when one describes the impact of El Nino to our country's weather?

Wet and cold in the southeast.  Dryer and warmer up here.

Yep. Essentially this. Quite old school.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

Straight talk....don't think i've ever seen such a sustained moderate rain ...for this long since i've been in the PNW (23 years).

It’s pretty unreal when you’re nailed with one of the stationary bands of moisture in events like this!  The world around you can crumble quickly and it is scary…lol. 
I’m terrible with dates but a couple years ago the south end of the Sound got nailed with a heavy band that just stalled over us! It was exciting and scary at the same time.  As I said above under these conditions the things crumble quickly around you. I live at the base of a hill and I’ve had a few raging springs erupt out of my hillside.

[Front Ranger]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As horrible as the pattern looks coming up, the PNW actually gets more cool air than anywhere else in the lower 48 over the next couple weeks. lol

Without going to la-la land, days 5-10 look chilly at least for much of the central US. Canada torches.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nope.

Worst possible pattern for W-Canada cold loading.

Good news is there will be more snow in the mountains this weekend and Leavenworth and large parts of Eastern Washington are also supposed to get snow.  Southern third of Eastern Washington probably wont, save for the hills.  May not last long, but it's something. 

How's your back doing?

[Front Ranger]

OLM up over 3.7" storm total now.

[snow_wizard]

Another very interesting GFS run.  Always a good sign when it keeps coming back.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Good news is there will be more snow in the mountains this weekend and Leavenworth and large parts of Eastern Washington are also supposed to get snow.  Southern third of Eastern Washington probably wont, save for the hills.  May not last long, but it's something. 

How's your back doing?