December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Another run with big snow for Seattle and true cold.

[snow_wizard]

The blocking is out of this world on this run.  Definite January 1969 vibe.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift has fuckking delivered the goodies.

[snow_wizard]

Brrr.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Brrr.

Magic -8 balls regionally.

[snow_wizard]

Purdy good!

[SpaceRace22]

Out of curiosity, what's the longest period that Seattle and Portland have had at least 1" of snow on the ground for?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Purdy good!

Time to hit the links.

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Out of curiosity, what's the longest period that Seattle and Portland have had at least 1" of snow on the ground for?

Seattle has officially done a few weeks.  1949-50 would have been 5 weeks or so if not for a few bare days.  1915-16 may have been 4 to 5 weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is like a Jan 1969 look with that jet placement in southern Oregon with systems rolling in for days on end.

[Requiem]

With some slight deviations that setup would be great for the Willamette Valley. Nice to see some real eye candy for the first time in a very dull (thus far) season.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible run.  Huge potential when the block gets undercut as well.

[snow_wizard]

The blocking being depicted is just spine chilling.

[snow_wizard]

Yikes!

 

One snow event late in the run.

[snow_wizard]

I need a cigarette after this run and I quit 20 years ago.  The end is ridiculous.

[Cold Snap]

Very nice 06z GFS run!

[SpaceRace22]

16 minutes ago, Requiem said:

With some slight deviations that setup would be great for the Willamette Valley. Nice to see some real eye candy for the first time in a very dull (thus far) season.

Yeah absolutely. At this stage in the game, all that really matters is that the overall pattern is showing what it is. The low snow totals this run has around Portland are basically irrelevant right now. All it would take is a tiny shift in storm track here or there, and Portland gets slammed too. There's so many opportunities for snow on this run that there's no way the WV doesn't get in on some of it as long as that pattern is in play.

[Meatyorologist]

My interest is piqued.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The full monty.

Regional goodies.

[SpaceRace22]

Lol whoops, I think the 06z ensembles might be shitting the bed a little bit. Still great overall, but a definite pullback from the excellent 00z suite.

[The Blob]

Who's posting on Reddit?

[Timmy Supercell]

Didn't New Years 2015 also have bare ground up at Gov Camp?

I think its early to call this the worst winter ever. Some start late. 

[RentonHill]

What’d I miss

[TT-SEA]

Wow... what a GFS run.   I am starting to believe there might be something big coming.   I have the GFS and ECMWF temp output charts bookmarked on my phone and start there to see if I should look at the details.   06Z GFS was nuts.   I knew there would be pepto snow maps in one glance.    00Z EPS temp output was boring and assumed there was no support...  but looking at the 500mb pattern it is actually not that not far off in the long range with a massive trough over the continental US and a GOA ridge.    The 850mb temps don't look like anything special in that range but its easy to imagine this being quite interesting regardless of the surface details it shows now.    Definitely can't discount the GFS.   And we have seen before where it leads the way.  

 

[MossMan]

Oh my…This will get the general public stirring…

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

What’d I miss

Not much….Only that ITS COMING!!!! 

[Kayla]

While everything looks really promising I’m still hesitant to say that it’s coming. The way this season has played out I worry that the block gets undercut by the southern energy after the first trough on the 6th-7th.

Like always, time will tell. I’m bouncing back and forth between Bozeman and Minneapolis for work these next few weeks so either way I’m probably going to freeze my butt off!

[High Desert Mat?]

Block isn’t of the classic type where it holds for very long “omega”. Looks like it undercuts fairly quickly and we’re back to the warmish showers. Same ol same ol. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Block isn’t of the classic type where it holds for very long “omega”. Looks like it undercuts fairly quickly and we’re back to the warmish showers. Same ol same ol. 

In a strong El Niño I think everyone here would be completely thrilled even if it is just a quick hitter. I would be over the moon for a February 2021 redux. That was just a two day event but it was amazing! 

[MossMan]

[Andstorm]

Crossing my fingers the trends hold. Regardless, our warm stretch appears officially over. I don’t see a 50+ degree high in Portland area for quite a while. Hoping we have a long stretch where we don’t hit 40. 

[BLI snowman]

5 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Out of curiosity, what's the longest period that Seattle and Portland have had at least 1" of snow on the ground for?

In the historic record it's 1861-62, which I think ran from December 22 to the beginning of March at Fort Vancouver. 

Our climate used to be a little snowier......

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Has anyone here ever actually confirmed that he's using all this jargon correctly, or is this more like a Simlish version of an atmospheric science textbook?

No but I’m sure you are right. 

[Andstorm]

It’s interesting looking at meteograms. the cold signal is definitely there, but the mean temps aren’t very impressive since the super cold members are being offset by others that are weirdly warm. But I suppose that’s to be expected a week out and with such a precarious boom-bust pattern (which we’re sort of stuck with living in this region). 

[Slushy Inch]

Gfs OP not as good! Still cold.

[Slushy Inch]

Gem is going places. Way better blocking

[van city]

The pull back has begun, as soon as people start throwing those years and comparisons around. 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gfs OP not as good! Still cold.

All the players are there still 7 days out. Ridge looks a little more robust. GEM is a decent step back at day 7, although a couple days later it looks good.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Timmy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major step back on the GEM too.