January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

How do you define a mountain wave event?

idk i just made it up

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going to be quite the week of model riding!! 

i'm going to get exactly zero work done. 

[Meatyorologist]

I think this broke the GFS. The Arctic has been annihilated.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Only 50 degrees below normal in Spokane

dry and frozen, lol thats like -15 or so

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

i'm going to get exactly zero work done. 

There couldn't have been better timing for me to get sick and miss work 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Well, set your expectations accordingly. Models cannot get better than this.

Hardly new. Clown range Goofus always overdoes the cold air advection.

[selkirks]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really a cool air mass overhead today.  Temps seem in line with 850mb temps where there is sun.

Really jarring to see such a warm airmass compared to the already very warm 1991-2020 mean.

[Doinko]

Nice snowstorm

 

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous run.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The PNW is a meteorological fiasco. Heights don't quite get down to those Jan 1950-type numbers. But make no mistake, that is a serious low level airmass. So much sharp transition over such a large area; this would be the mountain wave event of a century for many.

Those are only 2mb increments on that map.  If they were 4....yeah.

[Christensen87]

Always ending with an overriding/east wind event. Can’t wait to model ride this week, and not get much sleep. CFS says fun is over after the 14th. 

[snow_wizard]

Nice overrunning at the end.  Still deep cold air so not too messy.  Fluffy dry snow for many.

[Gradient Keeper]

Only the beginning. Wait until the Euro and EPS spit out frigid Siberian runs.

00z GFS in 4 hours 23 minutes
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Always ending with an overriding/east wind event. Can’t wait to model ride this week, and not get much sleep. CFS says fun is over after the 14th. 

That remains to be seen.  We will probably need another SSW to keep it going much longer than that though.

[RentonHill]

lmao thats a sweet global ridge

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 8 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)

[RentonHill]

Thru hr 200 GEFS is improved

 

[The Cats Meow]

Oh boy.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thru hr 200 GEFS is improved

 

Definitely. Now we need the ridge to dig in its heels(or boots?) and setup right there.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice overrunning at the end.  Still deep cold air so not too messy.  Fluffy dry snow for many.

Hmmm. Looks like freezing rain and rain spreading up from the south to me. 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GEFS Day 8 500mb Height Anomaly (4-run trend)

Some model waffling. Need to wait of few days before serious excitement. Interest very piqued!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 9'er (4-run trend) Very nice!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.

It depends what he meant by analog though.  Just because 1968-69 had the big blast in December doesn't mean the Jan 1969 pattern can't set up this month.  The hallmark of that pattern was very low NAO which we are supposed to have over the next couple of weeks.

1968/69 was the deepest -NAO on record, actually.

[Phil]

lol drunkle living up to his name. Impossible to get a stronger NAO block than what is advertised.  

[Cold Snap]

Looks like Druncle decided to get hammered for New Years!

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully we see improvements on the 0z tonight 

[Phil]

Full on 1899 re-run. I’m not buying that just yet, but damn I can dream, right?

[Weiner Warrior]

Lame.. I'm not happy unless GFS shows > 30 inches snow in Seattle. Throw it out

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Lame.. I'm not happy unless GFS shows > 30 inches snow in Seattle. Throw it out

I 100% agree with this

[MossMan]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I 100% agree with this

Yeah I’m not seeing any snow maps, this a dry blast? 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Lame.. I'm not happy unless GFS shows > 30 inches snow in Seattle. Throw it out

Same but for sunriver. Although 30 for me is actually realistic

[MWG]

We have another Wind Advisory for tomorrow. The last one on Friday broke our canopy

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I’m not seeing any snow maps, this a dry blast? 

too cold

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I’m not seeing any snow maps, this a dry blast? 

Not bad in my opinion, although I'm biased because it gave me 2+ feet of snow. Not a run goes by without giving me 20+ " of snow 

 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I’m not seeing any snow maps, this a dry blast? 

Trace to an inch for your area 

[RentonHill]

Lot of warming members in the GEFS around Day 11 right as the OP is getting cold. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Not bad in my opinion, although I'm biased because it gave me 2+ feet of snow. Not a run goes by without giving me 20+ " of snow 

 

It snows a lot in Sunriver 

[NWbyNW]

Happy 2024 everyone!  Been monitoring our strong El Nino season which has led to warmer and less-snowy conditions in the Cascade's.  Earlier last year I had half-jokingly said that with California getting all the cold and rain, we would switch places with them and become the drought stricken area for several years to come.  It's too early to say that of course, but I still always worry.  Heheh.... Anyways, let's check the snowpack to normal real quick.  We really need to pick it up if we don't want to worsen drought conditions next summer and spring.

Our drinking water is all in the good, as to be expected. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Lot of warming members in the GEFS around Day 11 right as the OP is getting cold. 

Druncle an outlier, imagine that